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Too late to save the US or the Democratic party, but at least she's likely toast as a politician after her term is over.

The author forgot one of the scenarios:

Scenario Five: Sinema wins the Democratic nomination and wins re-election.

This is a pretty easy one to describe. The most likely precipitating event for this scenario is that the Democrats have a bad 2022 midterms, losing the House and losing the Senate; if Mark Kelly specifically loses his seat, it becomes even more likely. Ruben Gallego decides that he's better off holding his safe House seat than trying to run in the most difficult environment - both a primary fight against an incumbent followed by a hard-fought general election positioned far to the left of the purple-to-red leaning state. Sinema draws a primary challenger, but not a heavyweight - and successfully makes the argument that it's better to stick with the incumbent than switch horses when the party is at grave risk of losing the seat.

Then she goes on to win the general election. The author posits that this is impossible without an enthusiastic base - but with Arizona being an important swing state to keep Donald Trump from being President, and very likely one of the seats that will determine whether the Democrats take back the Senate, the base will be very enthusiastic. All the groups that are pulling their support from her for now will pile back in if she's the nominee, and the choice is between a conservative/Trumpy Republican or a less-than-perfect Democrat. Sinema's pretty conservative as far as Democrats go - but then again, she was one of the most conservative Democrats in the House and she still managed to win election in the first place.

That might not happen. Democrats might perform well in 2022 generally, or in Arizona particularly. Gallego might calculate that he can take the hits in the primary and still be able to win the general in 2024. And even if everything described above does happen, Sinema is of course no guarantee to win the election (any more than Gallego or any Democrat would be) - the 2018 race was close, even with a favorable national environment for Democrats.

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