Skip to main content
No. of Recommendations: 22
Tops are very hard to call.

But, I note that we're at an all time market high while breadth is terrible.
Nasdaq NH-NL has been negative lately and is around zero, give or take, depending on the smoothing you use.

Historically the combination of market highs with negative breadth within a few days either way has not been a good omen.
Depending on how you check these things, about 1/3 of such times turn out to be market tops.
The other 2/3 tend to be intermediate tops on the way to The Top.

I don't think the market is topping out right now, but then what I think has little importance.

Well, my secular bull market roadmap suggests another 5–7 years of outsized returns.

This sounds a little bit like it's the opinion of someone with something to sell.
Outsized returns---meaning above average.
Meaning, in effect, prices rising faster than earnings, and things getting yet more expensive.
On some metrics the broad US market is more expensive today than it has ever been in history.
On other metrics, it's merely very expensive compared to history.
That doesn't mean we're at a top by any means, but expecting another 5-7 years of multiple expansion starting here sounds like a bit of a reach.
Is the guy willing to put money on his prediction?

Print the post  


What was Your Dumbest Investment?
Share it with us -- and learn from others' stories of flubs.
When Life Gives You Lemons
We all have had hardships and made poor decisions. The important thing is how we respond and grow. Read the story of a Fool who started from nothing, and looks to gain everything.
Contact Us
Contact Customer Service and other Fool departments here.
Work for Fools?
Winner of the Washingtonian great places to work, and Glassdoor #1 Company to Work For 2015! Have access to all of TMF's online and email products for FREE, and be paid for your contributions to TMF! Click the link and start your Fool career.