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Toyota has an ongoing dominance with the hybrid model. The Prius Prime is a really good car. It is sporty, comfortable and gets over 70MPG with the 25 mile rechargeable battery. For short trips, and with a nearby or (ideally) home charger, it doesn't even need gas.

And its owners don't have to wait months for replacement body parts, the service is immediate and local, and the car is just a well-engineered, reliable, long lasting Toyota.

I doubt there will be just one winner. Multiple modes meet different consumer needs. Tesla moved the ball way down the field with Model S, but, so did Toyota with the Prius.
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One of my investing friends who owns (and believes in) Tesla keeps telling me about how it is bouncing off lows, testing lows, that sort of thing. My guess is that you may never get a better chance.

My TSLA position is a bit over 6% of my total stocks, up 2145% with an annualized growth rate of 50%. I'm not buying, except that I've promised myself a Y when my old house sells. 8-)
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So, TSLA is below 600 again, mostly because of recently reported "market share weakness". Anyone still long term bullish and tempted to buy more? I actually don't own any Tesla stock yet, but I'm thinking of finally buying in after the five month decline from the high 800s. Is this my chance?

You're the only one who can decide if this or not your chance.

Denny Schlesinger
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You're the only one who can decide if this or not your chance.

Indubitably! But getting other opinions on the long term outlook of a company is one purpose of an investment board, which was my main goal in posting here.
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Indubitably! But getting other opinions on the long term outlook of a company is one purpose of an investment board, which was my main goal in posting here.

I would have been happy to say why I increased my TSLA position by one third in May but I replied as I did because of the way your post/question was phrased, "Is this my chance?"

I missed my chance of saving $50 a share by not waiting for yesterday's drop which has nothing to do with Tesla's long term outlook. There is hardly any correlation between market volatility and the long term outlook of a company. I look at stocks from two perspectives, fundamental and trading.

I was an EV sceptic until Tesla's September 2020 battery day. My "fundamental" outlook on Tesla has not changed, the EV technology has "Crossed the Chasm" confirmed by the ramp-up of competition trying to build "Tesla Killers." With giga-casting, quality, performance, and production rates will rise as cost drops and with Giga Austin and Giga Berlin 2021 deliveries could double 2020. The EV segment is capacity constrained and the coming $12,500 incentive package will just stoke demand. One analyst estimates that this incentive package could add $42 billion to Tesla's net profit over the next five years. Using a P/E ratio of 50 that would add somewhere over $600 to the share price.

On the trading side I started buying in September, took profits at twice the price in January, and started adding again in April and May but "I missed my chance of saving over 50 bucks per share by not waiting for June 3."

Long term the focus should be on batteries, the core component of EVs. Much touted hydrogen has not made much of an impact. Now Sandy Munro says that it would make sense on semis. Natural gas "made sense" on trucks but it never happened. There is a high likelihood that hydrogen will also fail but don't discount it. Solid state batteries have better odds but they are years from volume production at reasonable prices. VW's target is 2025. Toyota has flip-flopped from hybrids to fuel cells to hydrogen and now to solid state batteries. Tesla's batteries are bird in the hand vs. incumbents' solid state batteries in the bush. These are the long term items I would focus on. 99.9% of the news is just market noise which you can use for trading but which don't affect fundamentals.

Denny Schlesinger
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These are the long term items I would focus on. 99.9% of the news is just market noise which you can use for trading but which don't affect fundamentals.

Thanks for the well-reasoned post. Much appreciated!
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99.9% of the news is just market noise which you can use for trading but which don't affect fundamentals.

On point. It's entirely possible "the easy money has been made" and the stock will effectively trade sideways for awhile. The top end may be set for some time by the bearish meme that "they're not profitable without selling the carbon credits".
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Toyota has flip-flopped from hybrids to fuel cells to hydrogen and now to solid state batteries.

Toyota has had varying PR messages but have been working on all of the above from an engineering point of view. Their attempt at hydrogen fuel cells has all but failed and they seem to be too proud to admit it and/or have gotten so much Japanese govt support they keep pushing on that rope.
EVs have won the technology race and their will be numerous battery types. Solid state is promising but will take many years to productize and more years to ramp up. Tesla has proven that desirable cars can be made without them.

....

It's entirely possible "the easy money has been made" and the stock will effectively trade sideways for awhile. The top end may be set for some time by the bearish meme that "they're not profitable without selling the carbon credits".

Tesla has ~1% of the car market. They have two new factories that will come on line within 6-10 months and more than double their capacity. They have the most efficient EV drive train.
The typical car company has about 70 days of car inventory (maybe a bit less now due to high demand) while Tesla has ~8 days of inventory -- which is essentially ZERO since the deliveries can't be made as the cars roll out of the factory.

So I think they still have room for the stock to grow -- but it will be lumpy.

Mike
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Toyota has an ongoing dominance with the hybrid model. The Prius Prime is a really good car. It is sporty, comfortable and gets over 70MPG with the 25 mile rechargeable battery. For short trips, and with a nearby or (ideally) home charger, it doesn't even need gas.

And its owners don't have to wait months for replacement body parts, the service is immediate and local, and the car is just a well-engineered, reliable, long lasting Toyota.

I doubt there will be just one winner. Multiple modes meet different consumer needs. Tesla moved the ball way down the field with Model S, but, so did Toyota with the Prius.
Print the post Back To Top