These seem to be the major beer stocks: DEO, SAM, FMX, CCU, BREW, ABEV, BUD, BLL, STZ, TAP. Their charts are mostly pretty sucky, for reasons I don't understand. Like, people have stopped drinking beer? You'd think the stocks would be making new highs, given that the economy hasn't yet crashed. For sure, CCU --a Chilean company-- is getting beaten up due to the political troubles there. But why are so many of the others struggling? Who knows, right? But now that I've backed away from tracking and trading the precious metals group, I need a substitute. Beer is as good as any. The grain trade I did today turned out well. If I mark myself to market on the bid at close (but not the after-hours bid, which just dropped hugely and is mostly meaningless), I'm up 0.61%, which is decent money. What I did notice, however, is that the 'ask' softened as the close approached. I'm guessing that's a daily pattern with all stocks as the day-traders try to to get flat. That's something that needs tracking in case it's me that's wanting to get out, which I did try to do, but wasn't willing to keep stepping in front of a falling 'ask' in order to ensure trade execution. So, I'm now long corn (and flat on gold and silver). Next project (once I figure out what's going on with beer)? The energy group. But now it's time for a very autumn bike ride.
Rather than beer, I traded ECH. 2:50pm, in @29.84. 3:20pm, out @30.74, with $0.90 cents per share for a 30-minute holding-period, which works out to about a bazillion percent annualized, or the sort of nonsense our dear forum hosts like to pretend they achieve with their stock "picks" (all of which are bettered --and in more timely ways AND for free-- from many other places). Why did this trade work? I have no idea. The ETF has been getting priced down due to political troubles in the country. At some point, the selling was going to be over-done. Maybe it was already over-done. Maybe the bottom was still far below. I just didn't know, nor could anyone. But the rhythms of the tape suggested the selling was slowing and that averaging into a position might be a reasonably, low-risk bet. ("Blood in the streets ...." and all of that.)What was totally unexpected was the surge of buying that happened seconds after I got in, creating a windfall profit I decided to grab. Now it's time for lunch, then raking leaves, then a bike ride, and the cycle begins again this evening of looking for my next trade.
I believe Scalping is the way to go.For fun.......https://www.barchart.com/etfs-funds/quotes/ECH/interactive-c... setup as follows...Frequency Intraday 1D 5 minutes. and we then wait for the next sell signal.Scalping at 2:10 pm in at 29.80 and out at 3:30. for a buck profit.Quill - Scalper any day at any time.
Quill, I'm going to argue with you. On a 1-day chart for ECH with 5-minute bars, the low was marked at 29.74. Per your rule of "Wait One Bar", the next bar was at 2:10 with a close of 29.82. 29.82 is higher than 29.74. Therefore, the entry conditions have been met. Now comes the scramble to get in, which could not have happened at 2:10, but a minute or so later, and not at 2.80, but likely a bit higher. (Yeah, details. But if this stuff is going to be systematized, the details matter.) Next comes the getting out. There was no arc placed. So the exiting had to be done on the basis of other criteria. Again, more "details", and some rather crucial ones. I've got no problem occasionally entering/exiting on pure discretion alone. But it's a risky, reckless, crap way to run a trading program.Next, I think you're misusing the term 'scalp'. You're not buying on the bid and selling on the ask, in mere seconds, hundreds of times a day. That's 'scalping'. The high-frequency boys can do that, but not us retail traders. The proper term for what for what you're proposing to do is 'short-term trend-trading'. You're not fading an ongoing trend you think is about to reverse. You're waiting for the reversal to happen and THEN trying to hop on for the ride. Me, OTOH, did a counter-trend trade. Prices were going sideways and hadn't yet broken out. My 'tape reading' said a breakout might happen. So I put on a position in advance of that event. Next, I think 5-minute bars respond too slowly to market dynamics. Drop down to 2-minute bars with about a 2-hour look-back. Now your chart template nails the moves exactly on the schedule you reported, though not with the buck profit you claim (but pretty close). Summary: You and I will disagree endlessly over trading details. That's just in the nature of things. But your template cannot be improved (*provided* it is used properly, which is going to vary from tradable to tradable depending factors like liquidity, volatility, spread width, etc.). But kudos to you for discovering what BarChart can offer. Arindam
Arindam,Man, what did you eat for supper?I like the 2-minute drill. Have to think about it some more. 'short-term trend-trader' sounds kewl.5 minute chart is a divisible number eg......5 10 15 20 25minutes5 minute is the most used by day trading.TOS came up with the 'scalping-alert' not me. I have a program floating around inside my computer which does the Scalping all automatically. I don't even know the name of the program which I had bought it about 15 years ago. Quill-
Quill, Use whatever bar format works for you. It's not like you're new to this stuff. I just know that trying to use 5-minute bars would drive me crazy. Sometimes, a name is just a name, and nothing of significance is meant by it. But when it comes to putting money at risk, the terms matter, because they define tasks and shape perceptions. TOS might have called their alert system a 'scalping tool'. But the HFT boys would snicker. In his book on technical analysis, the guy who edited the Market Wizard series argued there only three possible trading systems: trend-following, counter-trend trading, and patterned trades (the S&H stuff, etc.). Clearly, your intent, purpose, and goal is trend-trading, and you favor 'longs'. (Using inverses is trading long, as opposed to putting on an honest 'short'.) Now, you've become intrigued with shortening up your holding-periods, and I agree. This is a frantic, jumpy, rumor-driven market where profits are wispy ghosts, appearing and disappearing quickly. Getting in and out the same day makes sense, at least with a portion of one's risk capital. Arindam
I did a quick scan of newspapers with coverage on Chile, but could find nothing that might have sparked the late-day buying frenzy for ECH. But that kind of trading doesn't just happen by itself. Insiders knew something. I just happened to have front-run it.
ECH is back to being priced within a dime of where it was before yesterday's breakout, retrospectively making my exit before the close The Right Thing To Do. (I kept my $0.90 cents per share. Them that held gave back their gains.) In recent days, I've seen this pattern of the following day taking back the gains of the previous enough times that holding overnight isn't worth the risks. That means 'day trading', which is generally associated with intense effort and lots of turnover. But there's nothing necessary about those associations. Instead, I'd call what I'm doing 'short-term trend-following'.
Sometimes, a name is just a name, and nothing of significance is meant by it. But when it comes to putting money at risk, the terms matter, because they define tasks and shape perceptions. TOS might have called their alert system a 'scalping tool'.At the risk of adding confusion, the TTM_ScalperAlert is a free study add-on in TOS that was originally purchased from John Carter who was at Trade The Market, but is now at Simpler Trading. I'm assuming that is the same thing as you both are referring to. Regardless, from the horse's (TDAmeritrade) mouth:TTM_ScalperAlertDescriptionThe TTM_ScalperAlert is a great tool for runaway markets. Timing entry into a runaway market is haphazard at best and can be akin to stepping in front of a freight train. By waiting for a scalper alert to fire off, a trader can be sure that momentum has at least paused and allows an entry at a possible turning point with a precise risk reward ratio in place.The TTM_ScalperAlert comprises two plots, Pivot High and Pivot Low. Pivot High is shown as an arrow above the first bar in a series of 3 lower Closes (Sell signal). Pivot Low is shown as an arrow under the first bar in a series of 3 higher Closes (Buy signal).Not sure this is exactly the same, since Quill states he purchased add-ons and this one is free. For what it may or may not be worth.......LakeD
Lake, Thanks for the heads-up on that tool. I've got TOS. I'll take a look. But --realistically-- I probably won't attempt to use it. (I trust my tape-reading and prefer to use Bracket Trader as my order-entry font-end.)Also, there really is a group of investors whom I'd like to reach out to for whom 'scalping tools' are inappropriate, namely, small accounts who have a day job and who really do need a set of EOD trading tools, not the nonsense and scam TMF is running. (The 17.75 year CAGR for Stock Adviser was 7.05% before fees, and about 5% with them backed in. A vanilla SP500 index fund offered nearly 8% over that same holding-period and that's net of fees. The brothers are crap traders and even worse investors whom no one should be giving money to for "advice".) Quill's ARC trading system still needs some work. But it's more 'workable' than anything I've ever come across, and I think it could be learned and used by beginners to good effect, especially once fractional share trading is rolled out. (My inside contact at Schwab corporate says "soon".)Arindam
Lake D,re: Waterhouse securitiesre: TD Americanre: TD AmeritradeThere is no confusion.In 1996 I was with Waterhouse securities and several brokers before them, until it got bought out by TD American and they were just starting up TOS. That is why I had to buy several TTM_ studies from a third party then. Once I bought the add-on studies that are now for FREE I did not know are attached to my studies group. Who knew. I did make a lot of money back in the late 90's with the Scalper-Alerts and the one program scalper alert automatic that I am still looking for hoping it didn't disappear with the other fried C-drives. Like an idiot, I keep forgetting to back up the hard drives. From what I recall, there weren't that many studies back in 96. Now today, you can go to YOUTUBE to learn how to use the various studies.https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TD_WaterhouseIf you compare the TOS scalper Alerts with a 3-4 tick delay to Barchart, Barchart will match all and any TOS alerts. However, Barchart is spot on and we simply use the "one day delay" as Arindam calls them.More studies are needed between the 1month and the 2month. 6month is the default for the big picture and move to the 1M or 2m charts.It is a matter of creating several templates with the click of a mouse on the template tab to view the chart per the watchlists I review every morning.the first of next month will be looking into the Barchart Premier.will be zeroing on the Top Trade Alerts https://www.barchart.com/stocks/top-stock-pickhttps://www.barchart.com/stocks/all-stock-picks just looking for a 10-15% and out or 1000 shares out at 2 to 5 point rise every day per the 5 stock list.Yesterday, I went to a refresher class on the new features of the TOS. Lots of new stuff to get acclimated to. TOS will be a backup to the Barchart for any new ideas.Make money is boring. Boring meaning the waiting and waiting around to take the money off of the table and then compound the returns into the next stock. Simplicity is the key to the success of every trade. Let the charts tell you what to do and don't listen to the pied pipers.Something to ponder,Quill -
Yesterday, I went to a refresher class on the new features of the TOS. Lots of new stuff to get acclimated to. TOS will be a backup to the Barchart for any new ideas.Honestly, sometimes Quill you are so cryptic in your writing......Technology has advanced in all platforms, even stockcharts has gone with dynamic charts. Personally, I think the key is learning one or two that fit your needs, whatever they may be. One thing for thought is that in TOS, you can script a ton in regards to searches, scans, watchlists, studies and more. Just learning thinkscript and am amazed at the possibilities.LakeDog
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