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The most accurate recession indicator is closer to flashing red

The 10-year Treasury note yield fell to 2.51%, its lowest level in 15 months — only a basis point away from the upper bound of the current fed-funds rate at 2.50%.

the spread between the three-month bill and 10-year Treasury note narrowed to 4 basis points. A so-called yield curve inversion, where the rate of longer-dated debt falls beneath its shorter-dated counterparts, is widely viewed as an accurate recession indicator, and the three-month and 10-year pair is the most closely followed by economists.

Corporate debt to GDP at highs. Last these highs were reached were in 2001 & 2008. And you know what happened then.
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