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No. of Recommendations: 2
Trying to get a better sense of my monthly progress, as I don't keep good track, so I looked at my posts here and at WAFTT to validate my performance at the end of each month. Here is what it looks like:

1/29 up 10% (including dividends)
2/26 up 24%
3/31 up 44%
4/30 up 48.5%
5/28 up 53%
6/24 up 55% (at moment)

ATH was something like 56-57% when SPG was over $135.

Have barely 4% in UPST and SNAP
1-2% in crappy mandatory mutual fund.
SPG dipped today, and just under 32% of port.
Cash about 62%.

My take, which is just some random guy on the internet who doesn't trade/invest full-time for a living:

1. valuations were insane in mid-2019. Then a rotation hit.
2. valuations were insane in Feb 2020. Then a pandemic hit.
3. the multiverse split into a bizarro universe in which everyone YOLO'd on growth/MOMO, and valuations got even more insane. Tons of people did 100% gains or more in 2020 and started touting themselves as modern-day Buffetts.
4. No real correction occured as valuations continued unabated until about Feb 2021.
5. Series of "drawdowns" or rotations hit the growth cohort, around March 5th, end of March, and around May 13th. This did not bring the valuations below the previous insane levels noted at #1 or #2. Rather, these were just dips.
6. Since may 13th, valuations back to screaming stupidly-high levels. Yet many apparently think that since growth cohort isn't up 50-100% YTD, that they are still "beaten down" since apparently they are unable to remember the world before mid-2019.
7. What will happen next is either market goes up on top of insane valuations, market goes sideways for a while, or market goes down. Or certain cohorts experience drawdown/rotations vs entire market being affected.

There is no $2b mkt cap stocks like TTD, AYX, MDB and others were in early 2018, where it seems reasonable that they should go higher and produce good CAGR returns. TTD is 18x higher at around $37b mkt cap...nowhere near in lockstep with actual revenue growth rates.

In short, stocks are not trading on fundamentals, imo. At least in the growth/momentum cohorts.
It is all just a trader's game...a gambling game.

"Hey...Google kicked the can for a year on removing cookies. So buy up TTD and MGNI and any adtech company!"

"Hey...but won't the problem be the same in a year?"

"Bro...we live in the moment, yeah? Like, just friggin YOLO on the MOMO, bro. You don't wanna be feeling that FOMO!!"

"Uh. Ok. Hey - did you really spend all your stimmy checks on Dogecoin?"

"Hey yeah, bro! Society just trying to keep us down. Like the rich just being richer, but we gonna leverage defi tech, you feel me? Bring wealth back to the people!"

"Well. Ok. But aren't, like, the richest people in the world the leaders of tech companies whose stocks we YOLO'd on MOMO? Like, you know, didn't we make them rich and stuff?"

"Dude...you are hurting my brain. Eff Bezos, Eff Musk. I ain't driving no Amazon truck. I am gonna retire off UPST and crypto. NET is totally worth another couple hundred billion, easily. This is about the people...we are changing the world!"

"Ummm. Didn't you say you were going to buy a Tesla and make it rain in Vegas with all your gains?"

"Don't harsh my buzz, bro. I'm saving the world out here."


Indeed. That should all end well.

Doom
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