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No. of Recommendations: 3
Hey, I bought 33 put contracts when this was at 8.90. I realized this bubble stock was way overvalued, when I saw it was trading 40% higher than the company I work for. After YESTERDAY my company is about 35% higher than SIRI. And my puts are doing just fine.

Do you people realize SIRI is valued at 9000 per subscriber? Let's say you get 10x the subs, then it is valued at 900 per sub--and subs only pay in 156/ yr in revenue. Subtract Op cost, and what do you have left?

My friend subscribes to Morningstar, and they give what they call a "Fair Value Estimate". What is it for SIRI? I don't want to spoil it for you, but it is less than 10% of the current share price. That means, if SIRI returns to its "Fair Value Estimate", YOU will lose an Additional 90% of your money.

If you're the poor sap that bought at 9, then you will have lost 95% of your money.

Oh, and don't even *think* about telling me SIRI @ 6 is cheaper than XMSR @ 33, or NFLX @ 11.

You rabid cult-like investors are headed for a big cliff, and you didn't even bother to pack a parachutte.







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No. of Recommendations: 12
You rabid cult-like investors are headed for a big cliff, and you didn't even bother to pack a parachutte.

Wow dude! Why don't you just barrel in here and offend everyone? I read a few of your things over on the other board and I thought they were ok. But this one seems to be a direct attack.

I have never considered myself a 'cult-like' investor. It takes me over a year to buy into a company from the time I find it and put it in my watch list. There are many many investors (from last year and such) who are very savvy on this company. Did you read any of the back posts? Did you read any of MY posts?

My friend subscribes to Morningstar, and they give what they call a "Fair Value Estimate"

By the way, have you been around the Fool long enough to determine why the say Foolish or foolish? Being Foolish is good, it means you are doing your own research and evaluations....being foolish is bad, it means you are listening to the wise and doing what they tell you. Morningstar may have a point, but I have managed to make money on this stock for over a year...and I have never read it.

If you're the poor sap that bought at 9, then you will have lost 95% of your money.

Thanks for the salt on the wounds. I am sure that the people that bought at 8 and 9 are very aware of the fact that they bought at the top. However, I am pretty sure they do not appreciate your 20/20 hindsight. Anyone can see the mistake after it has been made.

Please post constructive information. If you want to explain your puts, why you did them, how they turned out...all of that would be great. Just stay away from slamming investors you know nothing about.

Thanks
Buffy (who likes this company, if not the current price...)
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I bought the puts because SIRI seemed to be vastly overvalued at 9. Had I known better, I would have just shorted it instead.

I have made about a 50% ROI on them--not quite what I had hoped for.

Look, from what I see, it would be suicide to buy SIRI at these levels, but I am open to hearing any of the models or justification you can provide for SIRI being at 6 today.

One thing that bugs me is, XMSR has 3x the subs SIRI has, and yet it is 20% cheaper (and this is AFTER siri fell from 9.40!!!!)

As far as what the wise say, I don't listen to many wall street analyist, but Morning star is very very good in my opinion. I do believe they discount growth more than they should, but I find them to be a reliable tool.


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No. of Recommendations: 15
Do you people realize SIRI is valued at 9000 per subscriber? Let's say you get 10x the subs, then it is valued at 900 per sub--and subs only pay in 156/ yr in revenue. Subtract Op cost, and what do you have left?

. . . Morningstar . . . "Fair Value Estimate". . . less than 10% of the current share price. . .

. . . You rabid cult-like investors are headed for a big cliff, and you didn't even bother to pack a parachutte.
**********



I appreciate your viewpoint, ztsmart. I even agree that those who were buying in at $9 were a little nutty to do so (I bought twice; at $3.14 in May and at $2.69 in Sep, still well above your Morningstar “Fair Value Estimate”). But I view SIRI as a long-term investment with great upside potential that Morningstar doesn't consider in its “Fair Value”, thus I see things differently.

A pretty well accepted estimate of break-even based on subscriber revenue only (neglecting other revenue sources like advertising) is 15 Million subscribers. Given a US potential market of 250 Million subscribers, that's only a 6% penetration, which I believe is very achievable, in fact I think twice that is a conservative goal. Any penetration above 6% should go straight to the bottom line. Likewise, after a 6% penetration is achieved any revenue generated from advertising goes straight to the bottom line.

Assume that by 2010 SIRI has achieved 12% market penetration and has 30 Million subscribers. At $13/sub/mo, that's gross annual subscription revenue of $4,680,000,000, or annual sales revenue of $3.90/share on a float of 1.2 Billion shares. Since the first 15 Million subs will cover costs (neglecting advertising revenue), that leaves earnings of $2.34 Billion, or $1.95/share. Given these assumptions, then a conservative PE of just 15 would drive a stock price of $29.25 in 2010. That, by the way, would be a price-to-sales ratio of 7.5. And it will deliver a 1,000% return on my investment over just six years, which I consider entirely acceptable.

You are focused on the current value/sub, which you present as roughly $9 Thousand. I don't think that's right; at current price/share floating around $6 with 1.2 Billion shares in float and 1.1 Million subs the value/sub is roughly $6.5K, and is dropping steadily as the subscription number rises. My assumptions on market penetration and break-even with a PE of 15 would yield a 2010 value/sub of roughly $1.2K, or 7.5 times the subscription price. And this is with no consideration at all to potential advertising revenues, which could approach $1K/sub/anum!

Of course, the investment isn't without risk; a lot could go wrong. The satellites could die in place or just fall out of the sky (though SIRI does have a “spare”). Uncle Sam could commandeer the satellites for national defense use. War, famine, pestilence, the Patriot Act, or other disorders could destroy the sat radio market in general. But those are imponderables. The issues that I can grasp and evaluate in a rational, semi-scientific way include these:

1. SIRI's satellite position enables steep delivery angle for superior reception (fewer blackout areas even w/o repeaters) and broader area coverage, even reaching into lower Canada.
2. Satellite radio market competition is very limited; the moat is broad & deep and the only other player on SIRI's side of the moat is XM.
3. SIRI content is generally superior to what XM offers.
4. SIRI has gotten better talent for both the front and back offices than XM.
5. SIRI's internet options are currently superior to XM's, though I think this will change to parity within the next year or two.
6. XM has a head start and its subscription price is lower than SIRI, but in spite of the price differential the SIRI subs are taking off on an exponential curve and will catch up to and likely surpass XM within the next 2 to 3 years; I will begin to worry about this if SIRI has not achieved at least parity in subscriber numbers by 2008.

All in all, I still like this investment. I think the stock price is going to float for a while, but I wouldn't short it as the upside potential is too great.

And I don't think I'm “rabid”.

As always,

Tom
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I don't think your observations are news to anybody here. I don't hear any value investors on this board trying to argue for this stock.

Heck, SIRI doesn't even make a profit. A very conservative investor could argue that the stock isn't worth anything until they make a profit. Of course, that is silly because the company has potential. How much potential does SIRI have? If you want to wow us with your investing acumen, give us an analysis of their potential. SIRI is clearly a potential investment based on a growth approach. Good growth companies are rarely properly valued early on, and if you wait for fair value you will usually miss the largest returns.

What the company is worth today is only relevant if you plan to sell today.

One of my personal investing rules is to only own no more than one company that is not profitable. Right now, SIRI is that company. I bought SIRI at 6 and some change and will likely sell if the price hits 11-12. Assuming SIRI meets expectations in subscriber growth, I think that will happen sometime leading up to Christmas of this year.

marxtacy
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What the company is worth today is only relevant if you plan to sell today.

Well put...

Echo
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I bought shares at a little under 8 and I'm not even breaking a sweat. Check the price again next christmas right before Stern comes over with a couple million more subscribers and get back to me.

Originally, I was going to sell next January when it balloons artificially again (and it will--look for $12-$15 range). I bought the service before I bought the stock, and it's impressive. After listening for several months, I might stick around for the long haul. If they increase the size and variety of their rotation, they'll smoke land-based radio right after they are done smoking XM (unless XM feels the heat early and acquires them, which would also be fine).

Really, I suspect one of your stocks just tanked and you're taking it out on some risk-takers.

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I like Satellite Radio, I even have it. It is great. However, Here are some things I disagree with you on.

Your subscriber estimates are way off. There are not 250 M potential subscribers for this market, you have to take out anyone under 16, and anyone who lives in AK or HW, you also have to subtract people who do no own a car, like many people in NYC or such, (yeah, I know, you can get it in your home--but they have SAT TV that can stream music as well). Furthermore, People who use their car infrequently would be less likely to get Sat Rad.

So, what do you think the remaining pool of potential subscribers is? I'd say 100-150M. Of those, what % will actually get Sat Radio? Given the fact that there is a free alternative that some people actually can tollerate (I can't), and the fact that many people do not spend very much time in their cars, I don't see penetration being 30%.

I see it being about 10-20%. Which is still good!

That would mean we have about 10-30 Million people subscribing to SAT rad.

Of that, what % do you think will be had by SIRI? I think about 1/3 (right now it is 25%).

XM has vastly superior equipment, and is a full 30% cheaper. It is also more widely known. Oftentimes, people will say "I want to buy XM radio" when the mean "I want to buy sat radio". Brand name recognition is very valuable--and tends to help grow or maintain marketshare.

In some aspect, SIRI has more content that would appeal to some people--but they have *paid* for it. You may think that their operating cost are fixed, but as (or if) they grow, operating cost have a way of creeping up--eating into margins.

Let's say they get half though.

That would be 15 M. 15M x $156/sub per year = 2.34 B I think advertising can generate an additonal 20% (I think advertising on both will be a good soruce of revenue) That puts us at 2.8 B. Operating cost--will be large as is evident from SIRI's extravagent spending on NFL, STERN, SAC, hiring Mel as CEO, etc. I see an operating cost of about 950 M (Minimum) Add in the 100 M /yr for HS and 100 M for the other contect SIRI has committed to, NFL, NHL, etc, and you have about 1200 M.

2800
-1200
=1600 M

After Taxes, I figure that will be about 1000 M. Given a P/E of 15, that would put SIRI at 15 B marketcap. But that was using the absolute best scenerio I could think of without just being silly. And even then, is it worth the risk? That would not even be a double my my calculations.

Just my opinion though.















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Tom makes a good response ... like the others, I agree that I don't like your bullying attitude coming in here and yelling at us reasonable minded investors.

Tom makes what I see a suspicious claim about the size of the market: A pretty well accepted estimate of break-even based on subscriber revenue only (neglecting other revenue sources like advertising) is 15 Million subscribers. Given a US potential market of 250 Million subscribers, that's only a 6% penetration, which I believe is very achievable, in fact I think twice that is a conservative goal. Any penetration above 6% should go straight to the bottom line. Likewise, after a 6% penetration is achieved any revenue generated from advertising goes straight to the bottom line.

First, XM only needs 5 mil or so subscribers to break even. To my eye that even more underlines XM's superiority.

In any case, I don't think the US market is 250 million people. The total US population (http://www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0004997.html) in 2000 was 281,421,906 with 279,583,437 in the lower 48 states (the SIRI coverage area). To have a market size of 250 mil means you're counting a whole lotta children in that figure not to mention the poor folk who can't afford a monthly bill for radio.

I don't know what the real size of the potential market is, but I'm sure it's a lot lower than 250 mil.

- David
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Originally, I was going to sell next January when it balloons artificially again (and it will--look for $12-$15 range).


If the momentum from Stern coming on board takes this (temporarily) similarly higher as the announcement did, I expect a price of around $14 by January.

As for what will happen next, I'm watching for one of 2 things to happen once those new subscription numbers are out:

1. The projections are fairly accurate and the stock price pulls back a bit after the big run-up. ($9)

2. The new subs far exceed the estimates and the stock continues to climb.

In either case, I believe satellite radio is the future of radio, just as cable and satellite changed TV forever. Needless to say....I'm long on this technology. (And confident that 1 year from now today's current prices will look cheap.)

It's certainly going to be a wild ride, but in the long term, those who are in now will be greatly rewarded.

If they increase the size and variety of their rotation, they'll smoke land-based radio right after they are done smoking XM (unless XM feels the heat early and acquires them, which would also be fine).

Or Sirius could acquire XM...

Echo
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Greetings ztsmart,

Hey, be careful to not hurt your arm patting yourself on the back for buying those puts! Anyone can champion themselves with the benefit of hindsight, but you seem to put in an extra special effort at it.

Your subscriber estimates are way off. There are not 250 M potential subscribers for this market

Are they? Perhaps his excellency would enlighten us commoners. I remember firt hearing about the possibility to satellite radio before they even had satellites. My first reaction was that nobody would actually pay for radio. I now own two XM units. 250 million may take awhile, but it will be there.

and anyone who lives in AK or HW

We are left to assume that your genius moved to a higher plane and you mean that HW means Hawaii. If I may be so bold as to make that assumption, the people of AK and HI seem to always get left out of the good deals. Of course, they get to live in AK and HI.

XM has vastly superior equipment, and is a full 30% cheaper

While I do have a Sirius unit, I would not say that my XM units are vastly superior. Just from what I have seen in the stores, I would say they are equals. As far as 30% cheaper... your math sucks. Maybe 30% of $12.95 (Sirius) equals $9.99 (basic XM) in AR, but in the rest of the country it does not.

I own and subscribe to XM times two. However, I own SIRI as a stock. I think they are both great companies. XMSR seems to be ahead of SIRI, but 10 years from now will this be relevent? Ford and Daimler-Chrysler have deals in writing with SIRI to factory install their units. Even though I am a XM and GM owner/driver, I must say that if I found myself behind the wheel of a Ford or a Dodge I would not have any problem subscribing to SIRI. I suspect this will be the case with the vast majority of my peers. In any case, the next few years may see the auto-makers installing radios that give their customers a choice of the two.

-Jason

Fortune favors the bold

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. . . Your subscriber estimates are way off. There are not 250 M potential subscribers for this market, you have to take out anyone under 16, and anyone who lives in AK or HW, you also have to subtract people who do no[t] own a car, like many people in NYC or such, (yeah, I know, you can get it in your home--but they have SAT TV that can stream music as well). Furthermore, People who use their car infrequently would be less likely to get Sat Rad.
**********


I got the 250 Million potential subscriber number from an article by J. Duglosch. I think he based it on a rational evaluation that considered the total number of cars licensed in the continental US plus some percentage of homes. There are more two and three car households than there are zero car households in the USA, and home/internet use is on the rise, so I'm inclined to agree w/Mr. Duglosch's estimate. You think 60% of that number is better, but based on what, your gut? Everybody has an opinion, if yours is “expert”, present your bona fides and I'll defer to it.

I'd like to see XM and/or SIRI publish some good market analysis info for us to chew on. Until then, I'll accept the independent analysis numbers of guys like Duglosch.



. . . I don't see penetration being 30%. . . I see it being about 10-20%. Which is still good!

That would mean we have about 10-30 Million people subscribing to SAT rad.

Of that, what % do you think will be had by SIRI? I think about 1/3 (right now it is 25%).
**********


Our thinking was similar here, in that I conservatively assumed only about 1/4 of the total potential market would be penetrated. But I assumed about half of that going to XM and about half going to SIRI; SIRI sub rate is increasing exponentially and total subs should be on parity w/XM before 2008. Thus I conservatively suggested 12% penetration for SIRI, rounding 1/2 of 25% down to the next whole percentage point. Duglosch suggested 10% penetration of the full 250M potential market for SIRI alone as a very safely conservative estimate.



XM has vastly superior equipment, and is a full 30% cheaper. It is also more widely known. Oftentimes, people will say "I want to buy XM radio" when the mean "I want to buy sat radio". Brand name recognition is very valuable--and tends to help grow or maintain marketshare.
**********


Agreed that XM has the jump here, in the same way that people say "Xerox" to mean photocopy and "Kleenex" to mean facial tissue. I do not see evolving equipment as a barrier; equipment will soon achieve parity. I do not see the subscription price differential as a barrier; it amounts to static in the face of the equipment costs and is more than outweighed by the superior content that it buys.

The "Pup" is becoming a well-known icon. The XM starting advantage appears to be eroding quickly. Witness the disproportionate market capitalization going to SIRI.



. . . 15M x $156/sub per year = 2.34 B I think advertising can generate an addit[I]onal 20% (I think advertising on both will be a good so[ur]ce of revenue)
**********


How do you get your 20% estimate for advertising? I know almost nothing about the advertising business, but I have seen estimates as high as $1K/sub/anum, which would be an additional 540% beyond subscription revenue at current price of $13/mo! But, I think that the ad market in sat radio is generally discounted at this point because it's unproven. Realistically, how much do you think the beer ads alone will be worth on the NFL coverage alone? And there are 64 other channels! And thousands of potential advertisers looking for the kind of specific niches that sat radio provides! Considering at the whole sat radio advertising revenue potential issue, I'm thinking that it may really not be unrealistic that it could add up to as much as $1K/sub/anum! My gut feel is that that's an awful lot, but who knows?

The advertising revenue question will resolve itself over the next few years, but in the meantime it's just another imponderable.



That puts us at [$]2.8 B. Operating cost--will be large as is evident from SIRI's extravag[a]nt spending on NFL, STERN, SAC, hiring Mel as CEO, etc. I see an operating cost of about 950 M (Minimum) Add in the 100 M /yr for HS and 100 M for the other conte[n]t SIRI has committed to, NFL, NHL, etc, and you have about 1200 M.
**********


The generally accepted "break-even" subscription number that has been tossed around in this and other forums is 15 Million. That necessarily supposes operating costs of $195M/mo, or $2.34B/anum, which is about twice as high as you're supposing, and therefore much a more conservative number to use when projecting a valuation of the stock. Assuming these higher operating costs applied to your scenario in which SIRI gets only 15M subs but earns an additional 20% of the sub revenue in advertising, earnings from subs would be zero and advertising would yield earnings of $468M, an earnings/share of $0.39. Note that at your estimate of 15M subscribers, that amounts to only $31.20 ad earnings/subscriber/year, which is about 1/32 of the $1K max advertising revenue estimate that's been suggested previously. Given EPS of $0.39 and a conservative PE of 15, stock price would be right where it is now.

And, I'll concede that if SIRI can only achieve 15M subscribers and if SIRI can only generate $468M in advertising earnings/year then maybe a stock price of $6/share is what we will actually see in 2010.

But, as I've said before, my bet is that the market potential is larger than you're estimating and that SIRI will achieve better penetration than you're estimating, getting twice as many subscriptions by 2010 as you're estimating. I also think that advertising revenue will be closer to $1K/sub/anum than $31K/sub/anum. I also think that Sat Radio is the "sexy" kind of new technology that will drive a PE materially higher than the stodgy 15 typical of stodgy old economy stalwarts like CAT.

Of course, our difference of opinion is what makes it interesting. Give it five years. We'll see who is right.

As always,

Tom
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Tom-

I am right because I bought Puts in December. :) I suppose we will see who is right on this in 5 years. I think you are *way* off on the advertising revenue. Remember, most of the stations are commerical free--also, advertisers cannot target local audances as they can on terrestrial radio and TV. Furthermore, advertising will be hard to sell, because I suspect SIRI or XM will have a hard time gathering the statistical data that reflects how many people listen to which stations.

In any case, I don't care what happens to the stock after March. It can go up to 30 and have a marketcap greater than GM, Net Flix, Overstock, and Southwest Airlines combined for all I care. But I doubt that it will.


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Geez, where do I begin? ztsmart is about as rabidly bearish on this stock as Cool700 is bullish.

I realized this bubble stock was way overvalued, when I saw it was trading 40% higher than the company I work for.

So, you value stock via it's relationship to your company's stock? Must be nice to have a compass to help you navigate through all those rabid cult-like cliff-diving tulip-hawking bulls.

I bought the puts because SIRI seemed to be vastly overvalued at 9. Had I known better, I would have just shorted it instead.
I have made about a 50% ROI on them--not quite what I had hoped for.


First, a math question: SIRI has not yet hit $4.5 (50% of $9), yet you made 50% ROI on your puts. Had you known better, you would have just shorted instead and made (at best) 25% ROI? If you don't like money, feel free to toss some at me.

Ok, assume you hold on to your short position, knowing (via your company's stock price) that SIRI will eventually drop to $0.60. What's to prevent rabid cult-like cliff-diving SIRI bulls from driving the price to $12, $15, or more and forcing a margin call? Just a word of caution to anyone who might take your advice (had you known better) and take a short position.

After Taxes, I figure that will be about 1000 M. Given a P/E of 15, that would put SIRI at 15 B marketcap.

P/E of 15!? So you think SIRI will grow at less than 15% a year? Learn from the tulips: MSFT was over-valued for years, but it kept growing, people kept buying, and the price kept going up. The price eventually became more justly valued, but it took years; i.e. by that time the original short positions would be well out-of-the-money.

I'm not making any predictions here; just want to keep things rational and balanced. Other than my flame, nice discussion here.

Frank
- who thinks it's better to keep some skin in the game than to stand on the sidelines.
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First, a math question: SIRI has not yet hit $4.5 (50% of $9), yet you made 50% ROI on your puts.

And keep in mind you have to count your commissions against your profit. If your commisions cost you 5-10% of your money, then your profit is reduced by that much.

Buffy (who always tracks his commissions...)
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Thanks Buffy.
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"You rabid cult-like investors"

Not to worry, Doc tells me only 3 more months of pills (and the shakes) then I will be fine


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No, I just know that a radio company isnt worth half of what my company is.

In any case I bought my puts at 1.15, they jumped to 2.05 at one point, but now are around 1.50. They fulctuate too much, and I fear that RCLI (rabid cult-like "investors") will drive the price up to 7.50 in march, and my puts will be worthless. If I were short, I could just sit back and wait for them to realize SIRI is a pipe dream, and watch the PPS fall down...down......down.

SIRI cannot grow very fast once it tops out on subscribers. My GENEROUS valuation gives poor little SIRI the benifit of already being topped out. SIRI is no MSFT.

You RCLIs cannot keep the price this high forever, eventually some of you will get bored, and walk away causing panic to set in. When it does, make sure you are close to the exit, because we all know how bubbles end--violently.

†If the price drops to 5 by march, I am going to buy my girlfriend an engagement ring (Yah me!)†

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I am right because I bought Puts in December. :)
**********


Yeah. Congrats on that! Since my cash-out horizon is way past that, I can honestly say that I hope your profit doesn't evaporate on you by March. But don't count your chickens yet, 'cause you may find your puts are worthless by then; this stock has powerful upside potential making shorts and puts very risky. Only time will tell, and I wish you luck.


I think you are *way* off on the advertising revenue.
**********


Likely. I haven't seen consistent estimates. I think that's why most analysis I've seen sticks to the quantification of subscriptions.


advertisers cannot target local aud[i]ances as they can on terrestrial radio and TV
**********


True. But because the content is so narrow on the various channels, they CAN target specific niche populations with far more specificity than conventional TV or radio ever let them do it before.


I suspect SIRI or XM will have a hard time gathering the statistical data that reflects how many people listen to which stations
**********


Since the broadcast must recognize the receiver, I wonder if SIRI doesn't know EXACTLY who is tuned in to what? Maybe I'm just being paranoid? But if I'm right about this, then potential advertisers will know exactly how many ears they're reaching with far more accuracy than Nielson sampling ever gave them.

As always,

Tom
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No, I just know that a radio company isnt worth half of what my company is.



mr. ztsmart, why dont you fill us in on just who "your" company is? or would that be insider trading. i always compare every company to budwieser, just wanted to compare....anyone who would leave their engagement hinging upon SIRI must be on the right track.

thetaj(wishing i was in tiajuna with Doc)
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buffy, if you dont think SIRI has/is exploring the euro market youre snoozing. i didnt say tommorrow, but within 10yrs. lets put a dime on it, whatcha say??


i cant provide a link,but i feel sure they hire forward thinking people like myself.

thetaj(who has never been to outer space)
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"SIRI cannot grow very fast once it tops out on subscribers. My GENEROUS valuation gives poor little SIRI the benifit of already being topped out. SIRI is no MSFT."


Tops out? Are people going to suddenly a) stop reproducing, making more people and b) stop making money to spend on frivilous things they adore?

The answer to both is no, my friend. Sirius sells a service and a product, and they are going to have more subscribers every year until something very bad happens. This stock will climb in January, drop back a bit, then climb steadily until they blow another wad of cash on a big name. The next time this stock takes a serious hit will be in about 10 years when the satellites need to be replaced. Those puppies are expensive, and it will hurt their bottom line.

Both XM and Sirius will be around for a while, profitable shortly. Either as competitors or as a single company. The risk is well worth the impending reward.
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If you're the poor sap that bought at 9, then you will have lost 95% of your money.

Only if you sold after it dropped.. but if you are like me and holding long term, (I bought at and average of $5.50) then even those that bought at $9 will be rewarded..

Ease up dude..! I'm sure you have bought stocks in something along the way and lost a dollar or 2.. Or are you the one out there that always buys and makes money and never looses..?

<'))><
©2005
Vic
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present your bona fides and I'll defer to it.

Anyone who puts it this way, has got my confidence. :) I will add that SIRI may decide down the road to do a reverse split and get some of this float out of the market when they start seeing those break-even sub numbers. My question is "what is their Cost per acquisition of Subscriber been as of late? Did it fall or rise last Q? It was way up in the summer (over $100 per, I recall)....
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The satcasters have to know what their subs are listening to. If they can turn your radio on by its ID # then they can talk to it repeatedly. They did not just decide to only talk to you once or in one way. IMO they are having a coversation with me right now and I am listening to my XM radio.
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No, I just know that a radio company isnt worth half of what my company is.

Judging from you track record with numbers (see previous post), I really don't know what to say.

My GENEROUS valuation gives poor little SIRI the benifit of already being topped out.

More like "rough estimate". Other have responded above (to sub #'s, ad $$, etc.), and it is clear that your valuation is less than "GENEROUS" to "poor little SIRI". But, I most vehemently disagree with your stingy (at most) 15% growth Y2Y estimation for your P/E ratio, which apparently you won't address. Remember that we're buying into management as well and their ability to find new business opportunities and return earnings to the owners.

SIRI is no MSFT.

I never said that SIRI is a MSFT.

If I were short, I could just sit back and wait for them to realize SIRI is a pipe dream, and watch the PPS fall down...down......down.

With about 10% of float short (110m out of 1.2b), SIRI need not grow like MSFT to short squeeze or margin the heck out of the shorts. To quote a paraphrase from another board: "The market can remain irrational longer than I can remain solvent". But, hey, why listen to me? I'm mostly here out of amusement, anyway. If you're so sure that "poor little SIRI" is going "down...down......down", why don't you short now? Good luck.

You RCLIs cannot keep the price this high forever, eventually some of you will get bored, and walk away causing panic to set in. When it does, make sure you are close to the exit, because we all know how bubbles end--violently.

We RCLI's are all in cahoots, that will never happen.

†If the price drops to 5 by march, I am going to buy my girlfriend an engagement ring (Yah me!)†

Yikes! So if SIRI drops to $5.01, what will you tell her? Sorry, you missed getting engaged to me by a penny. (Actually, certain analysts do that, don't they?)

You certainly live a charmed life. Your company's value (or perhaps half of your company's value) decides the correct price of SIRI. And, consequently, SIRI's stock price determines important life decisions. I wish I had something to make my decisions for me. But, then again, I'm part of the RCLI zombie-borg collective.

Frank



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†If the price drops to 5 by march, I am going to buy my girlfriend an engagement ring (Yah me!)†

Yikes! So if SIRI drops to $5.01, what will you tell her? Sorry, you missed getting engaged to me by a penny.


She'd be lucky if the stock took off to $30+ range right now...

Echo
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The next time this stock takes a serious hit will be in about 10 years when the satellites need to be replaced. Those puppies are expensive, and it will hurt their bottom line.

In a previous post I added a link and left knowlege about how long
the Loral FS-1300 Satellites life span is.


I was interested in what type of Satellite that SIRIUS uses and they have 2 Loral FS-1300 Satellites up and one as backup in storage.

They have a life of 15 years. I also just read were they have gone as much as 17 years past their life span, more than twice their design life and still working!

http://www.astronautix.com/craft/fs1300.htm
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The next time this stock takes a serious hit will be in about 10 years when the satellites need to be replaced. Those puppies are expensive, and it will hurt their bottom line.

In a previous post I added a link and left knowlege about how long 
the Loral FS-1300 Satellites life span is. 


I was interested in what type of Satellite that SIRIUS uses and they have 2 Loral FS-1300 Satellites up and one as backup in storage. 

They have a life of 15 years. I also just read were they have gone as much as 17 years past their life span, more than twice their design life and still working!

http://www.astronautix.com/craft/fs1300.htm
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After hearing about this topic on another board, I had to take a looksee and see what it's all about.

I hear an analyst has determined that ad revenue could be upwards of $1000/subscription. I dont mean to be rude, but does this makes any sense to you? Lets say the avareage listener makes $50/year. Now lets say that that after taxes and housing, they have 30% of that as discetionary income to spend on what ever gets advertised. That comes out to 6%, wich sounds good at first. Thats $1K spent for $15K in sales that may go to them, their competitor or no one. So I gues you need a ratio for affectiveness of the ad. So lets say it works 25% of the time. Now we are up to 24% of the revenues spent on ads. But we aren't done yet. Those same customers are spending ad dollars in over the air TV, sat TV, internet, newsprint. So now lets say that all of those SIRI subscribers are also getting satalite TV or some other media and watch the same ad they listen to on the radio. So now we are up to 50% of revenue spent on advertising. Sounds wayyyy high to me.
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"The satcasters have to know what their subs are listening to. If they can turn your radio on by its ID # then they can talk to it repeatedly. They did not just decide to only talk to you once or in one way. IMO they are having a coversation with me right now and I am listening to my XM radio."

So you think the radio in your car transmits data to the satalite? Does your lights dim from having to power that transmition when you turn the radio on?

Seriously, there is NO WAY your sending data back to the satalite.

So how does your radio get turned on remotely from just giving your radio id# to a person over the phone?

Glad you asked that question. There are many ways to do this easily and cost effectively. One is to create a unique ID# for each radio made and store it permantly in ROM. Then have a program that has to be refreshed with a new keycode every month. The satalite now jusy has to combines your unique ID# with a keycode and transmit that. Imagine it being like your XP keycode, just it gets refreshed every month, or you lose functionality. In reality it would be your radio's ID number multiplied/divided by some prime numbers and then output the remainder (ok it is a little more complicated than this). Since each ID# is unique, you can start or stop service on any or all radio's service remotely. Actualy the encription part is optional but probably used.

Or simply put, the radio has to be told by the satalite thats it is ok for you to listen to it since you paid your bill this month.
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Since the broadcast must recognize the receiver, I wonder if SIRI doesn't know EXACTLY who is tuned in to what? Maybe I'm just being paranoid? But if I'm right about this, then potential advertisers will know exactly how many ears they're reaching with far more accuracy than Nielson sampling ever gave them.

Really???
Hmmm...hadn't thought of that. So the reciever actually broadcasts back to the satellite somehow?
That is kinda freaky.

Buffy (who is very much a privacy freak...)
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Buffy (who is very much a privacy freak...)
**********


Alas, yes. Really.

I have it on good authority that privacy is an outdated notion from a previous age. I think that my not-yet-conceived grandchildren will find the concept to be a quaint one.

As always,

Tom <another "privacy freak" who also fears On-Star, and for the same reasons>
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. . . I dont mean to be rude, but does this makes any sense to you? Lets say the avareage listener makes $50[K]/year. Now lets say that that after taxes and housing, they have 30% of that as discetionary income to spend on what ever gets advertised. That comes out to 6%, wich sounds good at first. Thats $1K spent for $15K in sales that may go to them, their competitor or no one. [ie: $1K in advertising cost is ~6% of $15K disposable income that the advertising might garner from the potential customer?] So I gues you need a ratio for affectiveness of the ad. So lets say it works 25% of the time. Now we are up to 24% of the revenues spent on ads. But we aren't done yet. Those same customers are spending ad dollars in over the air TV, sat TV, internet, newsprint. So now lets say that all of those SIRI subscribers are also getting satalite TV or some other media and watch the same ad they listen to on the radio. So now we are up to 50% of revenue spent on advertising. Sounds wayyyy high to me.
**********


We're trying to explore the issue here, psychoinvest – its not rude to promote the discussion! Thanks for your input!

I wonder, though, if the way you're approaching the issue is the right way? Maybe it is. Your approach seems to be this: If Joe Average has ~$15K/year in disposable income, then how much is Mr. Average Retailer willing to spend to get Joe Average's attention and, hopefully garner his business?

I think the idea behind the $1K/year ad revenue estimate for SIRI is that the aggregate amount spent on advertising by many clients, thousands of them over the course of a year, could amount to as much as ~$1K/subscriber/year. If SIRI gets 30M subscribers, that would amount to $30B in advertising revenue. That does seem like a LOT of advertising revenue, amounting to over $82.4M/calendar day, but with 30M subscribers it comes to only ~$2.75/subscriber/day. If you had a thousand ad clients on any given day that would be an average of $0.00275/subscriber/day/client. Even if you put ads on only about half of the 65 channels, say 32 of the channels, and left the other half ad-free, then that would distribute to 31.25 average advertisers/channel/day. If each of them bought 10 minutes of air time that would give you a ratio of roughly 4:1 content to advertising, which feels about right. And the cost would be ~$8.3K/advertising minute. Assuming equal distribution of subscribers to each of the 65 channels, and assuming that 25% of them are listening when one of the ads airs, then that $8.3K/min would buy ~115,000 sets of ears/minute; that's $0.072/contact if the contacts are in 1 minute blocks, and you'd reach 1.15M sets of ears w/ten one minute blocks.

How much do advertisers typically spend per capita to reach out to large audiences, audiences of a million or more? I've heard that Superbowl ads reach tens of millions of viewers and cost millions of dollars/minute. Maybe $8.3K/minute for ten minutes of air time is a pretty good rate to reach over a million sets of ears a day? If it motivated just 1% of them to buy what you're selling, that'd be 11,500 new customers for your $83K. You'd have to make $7.22 profit off of each of them to break even on the deal.

Or maybe not. Like I said, I really don't know. And the article I read a while back suggested $1K/subscriber/year in ad revenue as an upper bound, not an average.

If someone here does know, it would be nice if they'd share the knowledge w/us.

As always,

Tom
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So you think the radio in your car transmits data to the satalite? Does your lights dim from having to power that transmition when you turn the radio on?

Seriously, there is NO WAY your sending data back to the satalite.


Well in the case of XM, they have "premium" content channels such as Playboy and Opie and Anthony that you pay for at an additional cost. I have not ordered either of these channels, however, if I did, then XM would personally know and transmit/receive from accordingly what my radio is doing or should be doing to give me that content. Why can they not do this in theory with every channel in terms of monitoring listener habits? By ordering different "premium" content you are personalizing your listening experience. Furthermore, don't you send data to a digital satellite everytime you change the channel? My friend has an XM PCR in the office and it tells him the % of time spent on each channel. Granted, the software can do that through the CPU clock. However, could not XM and SIRI do that for every radio? As you basically say, its a matter of simple code.

C'mon!! I never met a tech head who did not think of everything when they built a program to run something. Its why nothing is completely intuitive with software, because it always does way more than what you need it to do and none of the simple tasks you want it to do. Look at what they want to do with cars! Use GPS to monitor habits and record mileage and charge the American driver a road tax surcharge based on mileage calculated in a year. The only protective measure I see in the prevention of this type of monitoring is that the FCC said "No, you cannot do that." I do not know if they did or did not regulate it this way. Perhaps someone does know if this prevention is in the licenses of Satellite radio.

FOR BUFFY -

I personally believe that this is not a matter of "invasion of privacy." You give them your credit card to pay for it - or a check. What they can determine from that is more significant then what they can determine from the radio satellites. I think the only thing that these companies could do is measure aggregate numbers but not personal habits as to where you buy your groceries or where you are going in your auto. Their signals blanket the land and you pick it up. So your radio says it wants this channel, so what? That seems about it to me. There are not 3 SIRI eyeballs or 2 XM eyeballs in the sky watching you. My advice is "pay them cash" when you subscribe.

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Sorry. In my last post, I failed to mention that XM offers the "parental control option" where you can effectively off-limit certain channels that have uncensored content. OF course, you initiate the request. But this example furthers my point that there has to be certain technology in place to do this function as well. Through the option I could effectively eliminate any channel on the system I perceive offensive. How does the satellite know that?

Tech heads come forth and elaborate and educate me!!!!
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These satellite radio units don't have enough power to transmit back to/through a satellite. To transmit to a satellite requires
a) a certain high broadcast power
b) a directional antenna that is aimed directly at the satellite.

I gaurantee you that the little omnidirectional antenna that comes with satradio is not fulfilling requirement (b) hence the radio cannot transmit to supreme headquarters your every thought.

Look at what they want to do with cars! Use GPS to monitor habits and record mileage and charge the American driver a road tax surcharge based on mileage calculated in a year.

As for that ... the proposal I read the other day involved installing the GPS units at gasoline pumps.

Currently road usage is paid for in gasoline taxes. Which means that a road tax surcharge based on mileage is already being collected from you, but it's been hidden from view because it's precalculated in the price of gasoline for you.

How in bleep do you expect the government to pay for the roads???

- David
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Sorry. In my last post, I failed to mention that XM offers the "parental control option" where you can effectively off-limit certain channels that have uncensored content. OF course, you initiate the request. But this example furthers my point that there has to be certain technology in place to do this function as well. Through the option I could effectively eliminate any channel on the system I perceive offensive. How does the satellite know that?

The satellite doesn't have to know that ... the satellite doesn't individually transmit to every radio. The satellite transmits the same thing to everywhere.

All that needs to happen is that the radio be told not to tune to certain channels. Very simple.

- David
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How in bleep do you expect the government to pay for the roads???
**********


The federal and state governments didn't always pay for the roads, but they got into that business in a big way in the post Civil War era. Think about it. We might all be better off if roads were privately owned. It would make it possible to actually eliminate drunk or chemically impaired driving (currently impossible to do, politically, despite the loss of tens of thousands of lives each year – our casualties in Iraq since the start of the war don't amount to even one week's carnage on our own roads directly attributable to impaired driving!). You could actually sue the road owner who permitted a drunk to operate on his road and threaten your safety, but you can't sue your government for failing to stop the carnage. And there would be competition for your lane-mile usage! You wouldn't see county road crews of five doing one man's work, and you could choose the safest, best maintained roads rather than settling for whatever your government gave you.

But we are way past that now, too late to change it. So far as our roads are concerned we're firmly committed to all the inefficiencies and problems that go w/any government-run enterprise.

But that's all beside the real point, which is privacy.

The current method of taxing gasoline doesn't give any clues about where you go or specifically when you went (your car could sit w/an empty tank for a long time!), or why. The current system doesn't even account for whose car did the traveling, it only collects a gross tax from anonymous customers; for all they know that gasoline went into your lawn mower. But if the government starts measuring your lane-mile usage w/real-time GPS data from your specifically identified vehicle as it's fed into a government database then the government will know a lot more than just how much road use tax you owe. It will also know exactly where you go and when you go there, and it will be able to extrapolate why in most instances. That gives the government the ability to stop you or impede you at will, which is way, WAY, too much power. Say, for example, that you're going to a church meeting for a church that's frowned on, or maybe headed toward a political rally for a cause or candidate that the sitting government doesn't like; wouldn't it be easy to close the road, or stage an “accident”, etc? It goes quickly downhill from there. It's a First Amendment issue; real freedom of association doesn't exist if your association is monitored by the government.

We already have this situation in air travel. Uncle Sam knows exactly when you travel by air and where you went. It would be easy for this to be abused, either officially or unofficially. Think about it.

Just because Uncle Sam has been benevolent in his use of such data up to now doesn't mean it will stay that way.

As always,

Tom
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All that needs to happen is that the radio be told not to tune to certain channels. Very simple.

- David


Yeah, but then how do you get the premium channels? You've bought the radio...some years later you want Playboy channel...how is it added. They have to locate your radio somehow.

Buffy (who wouldn't think this was an enduser adjusted thing...)
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All that needs to happen is that the radio be told not to tune to certain channels. Very simple.

- David


Yeah, but then how do you get the premium channels? You've bought the radio...some years later you want Playboy channel...how is it added. They have to locate your radio somehow.

Buffy (who wouldn't think this was an enduser adjusted thing...)


The same way the cable TV system does it. The idea is the same ... the cable coming into your house (that is, if you subscribe to cable TV, which I do not, since I don't even own a TV) carries all channels, and it's up to the box to allow/prevent access ...

The central system sends out coded instructions something like

{{{ RADIO [n]: ALLOWED CHANNELS: [a],[b],[d-f],... }}}

It can do this periodically, and maybe they would dedicate one "channel" to broadcasting these coded instructions. The radio would simply need to look for instructions with its address (the [n] part) and respond accordingly.

NOTE: I don't know for sure that's what is done ... but as a registered and professional geek, that's how I would do it if I were to design the system.

- David
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NOTE: I don't know for sure that's what is done ... but as a registered and professional geek, that's how I would do it if I were to design the system.

As a professional geek I would design what my customer wants. XMSR and SIRI are in the advertising and content biz. They need hard numbers to sell their product more efficiently to these advertisers. Lord knows and so do they that they do not need Arbitron and Nielsen. They need numbers and with all this CPU talk, and all the wizardry to do satellite radio, you are trying to ratioanlize that media savvy execs and their guru design teams and r&d dept. did not think this through? C'mon....

Sat radio has a combined $4 billion plus invested. Its industry Cap, though somewhat inflated, is over $12B. They are after the best way possible to get it back. These media companies are on the edge of communications and I submit to you that they did not overlook this opportunity. The question is whether or not they can do it legally. Does any one know?


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Yes. Through subscriber growth, they will make it back.
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Gee.. You sound bitter.. We're all here to make money.. not wish ill on others.. and besides, there is more to marketing then just local markets.. there's Auto makers, Dell Computers, McDonalds, etc.. these are national and have the $$$ to spend for ads..

<'))><
©2005
Vic
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Actually, the way I understand how the technology works is that there is a little electronic "On/Off" switch inside each reciever by the unique code each receiver (probably within an e-prom chip)has and once it is turned on, you receive the "streams" all at once and the reciever splits them to the various channels. Within the "stream" of the channel that you happen to be listening to, is the infrmation on what song is being played. the song data is sent to the receiver but nothing is sent back from the reciever to the satelite.. to much bandwith would be taken up to do that. If the sub doesn't pay his bill or cancels, then on "off" signal is sent for that unique code and it shuts of the unite from receiving the streams ans then you only receive the the XM-Promo signal. The don't keep sending an "On" signal to the reciever.. once it is on, it's on.. once it's off, it's off. I'm sure someone in the future will figure out a way to pirate the recievers but until then...

<'))><
©2005
Vic
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As a professional geek I would design what my customer wants. XMSR and SIRI are in the advertising and content biz. They need hard numbers to sell their product more efficiently to these advertisers. Lord knows and so do they that they do not need Arbitron and Nielsen. They need numbers and with all this CPU talk, and all the wizardry to do satellite radio, you are trying to ratioanlize that media savvy execs and their guru design teams and r&d dept. did not think this through? C'mon....

Okay, I'll make a little clearer one of the things I said.

In order for a radio to broadcast TO a satellite, it requires a fairly powerful signal and a directional antenna that's aimed precisely at the satellite.

A handheld unit like XM's MyFI just wouldn't be able to do that. And, in general, a unit installed on a car doesn't have a directional antenna pointing at the satellite, now does it? Hence, because of the impossibility, the SIRI/XMSR units cannot be transmitting anything to home base.

- David


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Ok.. after reading through a bunch of posts on how the receiver knows what channels to turn on/off etc.. I'm going to try to elaborate a bit more.

Ok.. your Satelite Receiver (XM or Siri, doesn't matter) is a digital receiver... that means that all it recieves is 1's and 0's over a microwave freaquency. The signal is transmitted in series.. similar to how a Music CD works, the laser reflects all the 1's an O's in series. So if you were to look at the actual code it would look similar to this..
10111000101001110101110011010111010110110101011010101010101001110010 and so forth. Withing the recieve is what they call a buffer, think of it as a class that holds so much water but as the water is flowing out, it is being constantly filled. that't why if you go into a tunnel you still have music for a few seconds then it cuts out.. that buffer is being emptied. Out in the open, the buffer is always full and so the music keeps playing becuase it is constantly be filled... no let me make this simple.. Satelite Radios Service XYZ has 7 channels. each channel has it's own frequency that it is being transmited on. Withing that frequency is all the 1's and 0's that is pouring into the buffer.. when the buffer is full, then it starts to pour it's 1's and 0's out into what is call a digital to analog converter and then that is what goes to the amp then the speakers. Now if you have a unit with an RF-Modulator, then that analog signal is converted to an RF signal then to the antena of yoru radio..
Ok.. are you still with me..?

Sat Radio XYZ has 7 channels that it broadcasts on 7 microwave bands.
Channel 0 is for broadcasting the subscription information and also the XYZ Demo channel

Channel 1 is news
Channel 2 is rock
Channel 3 is Jazz
Channel 4 is Rapp
Channel 5 is Comedy
Channel 6 is a premium channel like playboy..

John Doe just buys his brand new XYZ receiver and wants to turn it on. He has an id code of A1B2C3.. he calls up the customer service for XYZ and give them his ID code and payment to turn on his radio. The service rep says, "OK, check your radio in 15 minutes and it should be turned on, if not call us back.."

No this is what happens.. the service rep enters in an ID code of A1B2C3 with a go ahead to turn on channels 1,2,3,4,5 but not 6. then this information is transmitted to the satelite which then broadcasts out on the Channel 0 frequency the binary code (1's and 0's) for ID #A1B2C3 and the code to turn on channels 1,2,3,4,5 but leave 6 turned off. All the XYZ recievers recieve this signal but since their ID #'s don't match A1B2C3, they ignore the rest of the signal. It's like when you were in school and the principle made an anouncement over the intercome for you to come to the office, everybody else ignores it and you go to the office.. Now this signal is sent just once to turn on John Doe's XYZ receiver and possibly repeated each time the renewal is paid. If John Doe cancels or doesn't pay his bill then the Customer Rep enters the ID #A1B2C3 and to turn it off. The Satelite then again broadcasts the code over the Channel 0 band to shut off the satelite. Each Reciever also, is probably equiped with some sort of clock that auto shuts off unless ir receives a signal to stay on.

All this code for each reciever to turn on/of and what channels to activate or not activate is probably less than 1k bytes of information. So it is theoretically posible that the information for all recievers to stay activated is being broadcast out over and over again ever few hours or so and it is just resetting the clocks in each recever to start thier countdowns again. ut the countdown timers are probably longer than when the "broadcast" intervals are.. in otherwords, say the satalite makes a complete run through all subscribers to keep their radios activated every hour, but yet the timers in the receivers are 2 hour timers.

Now is this how it actually works..? Not sure, but with my knowledge of Digital Electronics, it is a posibility...

<'))><
©2005
Vic
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I also want to appologize for all the typo's and mispelled words in my last post.. I understand Digital Electronics, just can't spell..
;-)

<'))><
©2005
Vic
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The don't keep sending an "On" signal to the reciever.. once it is on, it's on.. once it's off, it's off. I'm sure someone in the future will figure out a way to pirate the recievers but until then..."

Ok, IF that is the way it works, I have found the solution to pirate the braodcast (and legaly). Just make sure you dont have power to the unit applied when the "off" signal comes. Remove your battery and then camcel your subscription. VIOLA! Free satalite radio!

Trust me it consist of:
1. unique id# for each radio
2. defaults to off if it doesnt recieve an on comand every so often
3. is encripted to prevent a "Twin Han Style" of piracy*



*the Twin Han can be used LEGALY to decode Direct TV signals. It is a PCI card >$80 that allows you to just plug the coaxle in your PC. Spend an hour or so setting the software up and VIOLA! Free Pay Per View, free MTV, free HBO ect.

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Ok, IF that is the way it works, I have found the solution to pirate the braodcast (and legaly). Just make sure you dont have power to the unit applied when the "off" signal comes. Remove your battery and then camcel your subscription. VIOLA! Free satalite radio!

Guess you didn't read the end of my posting, huh..?

<'))><
©2009
Vic
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You don't get it.
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You don't get it.


ztsmart, i aqm still waiting to hear about "your" company. you know, so that we may get it too......

thetaj
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Wow!

I remember guys like this on the AOL boards! This guy really got everyone's undies in a bunch. Gotta' love the pumpers and dumpers. We even get 'em in here. Go ahead...everyone sell off your SIRI shares! Meanwhile, I'm gonna' be patient for the next couple of years and watch my investment grow. I don't give a rats behind about the formulas and numbers. What I do know, is that SATRAD is on the rise. Instead of studying charts, I'm listening to potential buyers of the product at Best Buy, etc. I'm listening to the buzz the salespeople create when they're moving either SATRAD product. In the end, it's gonna' be a Microsoft/Apple scenario. Both SIRI and XMSR will be winners. Up or down a few bucks in the interim means nothing to me. I'm going long...Good luck to all!

Blessings,

Craig
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" I don't give a rats behind about the formulas and numbers. What I do know, is that SATRAD is on the rise. Instead of studying charts, I'm listening to potential buyers of the product at Best Buy, etc. I'm listening to the buzz the salespeople create when they're moving either SATRAD product."

Just a few questions. Without doing some math, how do you come to a rational price for SIRI? Without looking at those analyst's figures from different angles, how does one find the "right one"? Without looking for flaws, can one find perfection?

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"...Just a few questions. Without doing some math, how do you come to a rational price for SIRI? Without looking at those analyst's figures from different angles, how does one find the "right one"? Without looking for flaws, can one find perfection?..."

I'm not really seeking any rational price or perfection, as I'm not trying to "time the market," or SIRI for that mattter. I really don't care much about "analysts." I'm more interested in what real people are buying and the buzz they genernate about the products they love. I've owned both SIRI and XMSR. In the long run, I decided SIRI is going to come out on top. Again, notice I said in the long run...In the menatime, I really don't cocern myself with buzz about insider trades, HS, or anything else. I fully understand this is a volatile stock, and that's OK. When I bought Apple months ago, I didn't listen to all of the negatives. I listened to the fact that I, as a dedicated PC guy, decided to make the switch from Pc to Mac and dropped $4K+ on Apple computers and iPods. My stock purchase was based on the potential for other diehard PC guys to follow my path over time. The iPod draws you in, and the PowerBooks take over from there. The point is, I'm into a few "rule breakers" every now and then. I buy what I know, and it has worked well for me thus far.
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