No. of Recommendations: 3
TWLO has been growing revenue 15% CAGR per quarter for 5 quarters.

So I think your 5% is low. I think your $30MM for SEND is high.

From the call (CFO Shipchandler) So if you normalize for the full 12 months of 2019 in rough numbers, this guidance equates to about 45% organic year-over-year growth for Twilio-only base revenue and about 25% organic year-over-year growth for SendGrid or over 40% organic year-over-year growth for what will be the combined base revenue category going forward.

Noting the 2 one-time events at 10 % of the 77% YoY total revenue we get 67% growth = $192.45MM
192 + 15% per QTR growth = 221. + 27 for Sendgrid = $248MM on the button.

I think the wild card is the $10MM in non-base revenue that seems low-balled.

Also with SendGrid at 25% growth = ~$180MM; but SEND has been growing 30% YoY, and Rev is at times +5% sequentially and at times 10% sequentially. Taking the low number $41MM x 1.05 * 2/3 = 28.7MM.

I think it's gonna be a barn-burner

Thanks for the fun exercise

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