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UK 'can't go climate neutral before 2050'
www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-51804212
The UK cannot go climate neutral much before 2050 unless people stop flying and eating red meat almost completely, a report says, but it warns that the British public do not look ready to take such steps and substantially change their lifestyle....It believes the UK target of climate neutrality by 2050 will result in harm to the climate.

The claim comes from the government-funded research group Energy Systems Catapult, whose computer models are used by the Committee on Climate Change, which advises government...."Achieving net zero significantly earlier than 2050 in our modelling exceeds even our most speculative measures, with rates of change for power, heat and road transport that push against the bounds of plausibility."

But the authors offer some optimism too. They calculate that the UK can cut emissions fast enough to be climate neutral by 2050 – but only if ministers act much more quickly. They say the government urgently needs to invest in three key technologies: carbon capture and storage with bioenergy crops; hydrogen for a wide variety of uses; and advanced nuclear power.

DB2
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The UK cannot go climate neutral much before 2050 unless people stop flying and eating red meat almost completely, a report says, but it warns that the British public do not look ready to take such steps and substantially change their lifestyle....It believes the UK target of climate neutrality by 2050 will result in harm to the climate.

Keir Starmer could drop Labour's 2030 net zero climate target
www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/keir-starmer-net-zero...
Labour could drop the ambitious 2030 climate crisis target it adopted under Jeremy Corbyn, the party's new leadership has said. A spokesperson for Keir Starmer said that he had supported the plans included in Labour's last manifesto, but that the party had lost the election.

The Green New Deal policy adopted under the previous leadership included the aim of a path to net zero carbon by the year 2030, based largely on massive public investment in green technology.

The suggestion that the commitment could be dropped has prompted an outcry from MPs on the left of the party and concern among activists.

DB2
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The UK cannot go climate neutral much before 2050 unless people stop flying and eating red meat almost completely, a report says, but it warns that the British public do not look ready to take such steps and substantially change their lifestyle....It believes the UK target of climate neutrality by 2050 will result in harm to the climate.

UK climate targets too low, economists say
www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-55138338
The UK prime minister’s recent 10-point climate plan won’t do enough to achieve his goal of curbing the country's greenhouse emissions, a report says. A consultancy has calculated that the UK will need to go further and faster to achieve its commitment of net zero emissions by mid-century....

The analysis by Cambridge Econometrics suggests Mr Johnson’s plan will reduce emissions 59% per cent by 2030, based on 1990 levels. It says they should really fall by 70% by that date.

DB2
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The UK cannot go climate neutral much before 2050 unless people stop flying and eating red meat almost completely, a report says, but it warns that the British public do not look ready to take such steps and substantially change their lifestyle....It believes the UK target of climate neutrality by 2050 will result in harm to the climate.
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The analysis by Cambridge Econometrics suggests Mr Johnson’s plan will reduce emissions 59% per cent by 2030, based on 1990 levels. It says they should really fall by 70% by that date.


UK raises climate ambition to cut emissions by 68% by 2030
www.spglobal.com/platts/en/market-insights/latest-news/elect...
The UK government has committed to a more ambitious target to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 68% from 1990 levels by 2030, it said late Dec. 3, setting a policy target that it hopes will unleash a wave of clean infrastructure investment....

The tougher target of 68% by 2030 forms the UK's upgraded Nationally Determined Contribution to the Paris Agreement – each country's formal climate pledge under the 2015 deal, which aims to limit global temperature increase to no more than 2 degrees Celsius by 2100. The UK's previous target under its NDC was to cut emissions by 53% by 2030 from a 1990 baseline....

The UK's stronger emissions reduction target does not include international aviation and shipping -- which are not commonly accounted for at the national level and are dealt with under separate international agreements. The UK also said it intends to meet its NDC through domestic action and will not rely on international emissions credits.

DB2
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The UK government has committed to a more ambitious target to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 68% from 1990 levels by 2030...
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From the Global Carbon Project database, the UK's CO2 emissions in 1990 were 601 million tonnes. A 68% decrease would mean 2030 emissions will have to be 192 million tonnes. Graphing these numbers, and based on recent reductions, it looks like that goal is possibly achievable. It is not out of the realm of possibility. It will mean a 5.5% per year decrease. Doing that every year is difficult, but possible, if they get really serious about it.

However, there is one big problem. They have already picked the low-hanging fruit. The UK has almost entirely eliminated coal consumption in the country.

https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics?country=UK&fuel=...

Therefore, further reductions will mostly need to come from either the natural gas or petroleum transportation product categories. Eliminating the remaining coal consumption is assumed, but there isn't much in CO2 savings left there. As can be seen in the IEA link above, the UK actually burns more natural gas today than it did in 1990. Eliminating coal meant more electricity needs to be generated from gas. The same story is true in the US.

Oil consumption in the UK is down a little, but it will be difficult to make the reductions necessary to meet this new goal.

But, as I always say, making goals is easy. Actually doing what is necessary to meet those goals is the tough part.

- Pete
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But, as I always say, making goals is easy. Actually doing what is necessary to meet those goals is the tough part.

- Pete


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Absolutely.... After the low hanging fruit has been picked and you are still short of keeping up with your goals, there is only one place left to go, restrictions on freedoms, reductions in lifestyle.

Government incentives/mandates/regulations of ever increasing intensity to travel less frequently, stay closer to home, smaller homes, eat less meat, smaller cars, fewer golf courses, restriction on pleasure boating, jet ski's, noone needs to go snowmobiling, less consumption, and the list goes on and on. Basically anything that uses energy is likely to produce carbon and consumption of that product or participating in that activity must be minimized.

If not these things, then where else do you go to save Gaia?

This is why I think the best course of action is to promote adaptation rather then embark on a fools mission that we can actually manage mother nature.
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...the UK's CO2 emissions in 1990 were 601 million tonnes. A 68% decrease would mean 2030 emissions will have to be 192 million tonnes.
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From crunching a few more numbers on this, in order to make this 192 million tonnes of CO2 per year goal, the UK will need to do all of the following:
1. Eliminate the rest of its coal consumption.
2. Cut natural gas consumption from its current 216 million cubic meters per day down to 110 million m3/day. A roughly 50% cut.
3. Cut petroleum consumption from its current 1545 thousand barrels per day down to 845 thousand barrels per day. Again, this is roughly half of current consumption.

Item #1 should be easy to achieve. I don't know if the UK has any domestic steel production left, but a total moratorium on coal would cause big problems there. No problem, just import more steel from China.

If petroleum consumption is cut in half, do they need to develop electric cars and trucks in a big way? If so, that makes it much more difficult to achieve a 50% reduction in natural gas use. The electric power grid needs load-following power plants than can be ramped up and down to adjust for changes in demand. Wind turbines can't do that. Solar panels can't do that, especially at 10 pm.

- Pete
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But, as I always say, making goals is easy. Actually doing what is necessary to meet those goals is the tough part.
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After the low hanging fruit has been picked and you are still short of keeping up with your goals, there is only one place left to go, restrictions on freedoms, reductions in lifestyle.


Government sets up secret 'green nudge unit' to persuade Britons to install smart meters, drive less and cut down on meat
www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/12/04/government-sets-secret-g...
The Government has established an environmental ‘nudge unit’ to work out how to persuade people into green behaviours such as driving less and cutting down on meat. The team was set up in April this year because of a recognition that the next phase of decarbonising will require much more personal behaviour change.

The 45 per cent cut in emissions already achieved since 1990 has come mostly from the phase-out of coal and its replacement with renewable energy such as offshore wind. Boris Johnson on Friday set the UK one of the world’s most ambitious targets to cut emissions, by 68 per cent within the next decade, up from a previous target of 61 per cent....

The new ‘behaviour change and public engagement team’, which is working from inside the Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy department, is focused on how to get public buy-in for further emissions cuts, which will be targeted at what we eat and how we travel and heat our homes.

DB2
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