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No. of Recommendations: 2
unease? that's all

I just sold two dinks the last couple days - total misses with a 12 to 13% loss in one and another 11-12% loss in the another, so I'm a little gun-shy right now and think I need to reassess my dink buying process (one of the losses is far more significant than the other because it was more meaningful as a position size and i relied too much on someone else's research (MRK)). Plus, your process is clearly different than mine and thus anything I write is likely absolutely irrelevant, esp. since I am 100% relying on your notes.

But from your note here

Low PE
small Insider Buy
High yield (sustainable?)
Q4 comp in single digits vs +3.1 compares
Buys shares (at higher price)

Q3-17 earnings terrible
Buys shares (at higher price)
Maybe high inventory
16-20m CapEx
higher debt levels
Non-material profit on E-comm side

Don't know
-unease if it is just another dumb commodity retailer who doesn't know any better w/capital allocation
-do ROEs and past PEs mean anything in retail given well-understood changes there? (just asking)

Again, just unease. It could move to $15 in short order for all I know.


it is funny - in our personal life, notes like this are always unwelcomed
they are always taken as affronts and you learn with most people to keep your mouth shut because they don't want your advice and it is often misconstrued
you know me well enough that i post this only cause your writeup made me uncomfortable
that's it

wish somebody had seen my writeup on Merck and told me it made them feel uncomfortable...
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