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No. of Recommendations: 4

Unfortunately, the Motley Fool boards seem to be down [about 0630] so I'll respond to your e-mail see what the dialoge was later on the board (if MF has not gone out of business). [I guess they are not out of business.]

You sort of contradict yourself, you seem to know what all the pharmas are doing, but say that we cannot know what is happening outside the company we work for.

There may be legal or ethical reasons why the pharmas would systematically dump clinical data, but I would think that to simply avoid covering the same ground twice, they would have records of what compounds were tested clinically and why they were droped...i.e., something as simple as "compound x, at doses of a,b,c, was effective in 3 patients but was very toxic to 5 and had no effects in the other 20." Of course, without blood or tissue samples it would not be possible to immediately screen for SNPs etc. but, If a pharma has data like this they could distinguish this compound for say "Compound y, at doses A, B. C was not effective in any patients and caused dose related toxicity." I suspect that some of the data are in patents and some of it is in the medical literature. Some of the experiments eventually lead to commercially valuable drugs and may have been submitted to the FDA who also keep files.

Thus, if you are talkig about the actual biological specimens and clinical notes, you may be right, it could all systematically be long-gone, but some of the data must have survived at least in the brains of retired employees...I suspect a lot of personal careers turned on the fact that a drug was very promising in many patients but was just to toxic in a few, or gave great results in a small group but never enough to be statistically significant...If a scientists worked on a drug for 5 years and had it end that way, he/she would probably remember it...

Perhaps a bigger problem at this point is that some of the patents may have expired or the information may be common knowledge now with little hope of gaining an IP advantage. However, I would think that discovering the SNPs that made a drug effective or toxic would be patentable along with clinical information about the effectivemess of the drug in the subgroup.

So, while acknowledging that there may be some barriers to this approach, and stipulating that the biological samples that would have allowed immediate classification of SNPs are probably not available, I think that review of existant files looks good relative to extracting the bark of rainforest trees looking for biologically active compounds....

I don't plan to sell my biotech portfolio. Especially sense I understand it a lot better than I understand optical swithes or airplanes. Taken to an extreme, your warning could be a vote against owning any individual stock or sector fund (including pharmas).

Finally, the relationship between the stock price of a biotech stock and the value of its technology, is (I believe) unfortunately very poor.

After reading yourlast coments about us old guys dieing off a going senile, I guess I have to point out that I still remember vividly my successes and failures from the 1960s and 1970s. That is 25-30 years ago and I'm only in my mid-50s (not exactly dead) with two children under three years old....

Age will mellow you Fushi....then you'll be bright, knowledgable and have perspective...what a combination...





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