So Tencent growing at 52% topline, doubling bottom line, now 58x trailing earnings...hard to value with traditional value models, ain't it?Long TCEHY,
Hi NS!Just an FYI that Naspers LTD, one of TCEHY's oldest and largest investors, will be selling about $10.6B worth of shares....taking their holdings down from 33.2% to 31.2%. The entire TCEHY stake cost them $34M in 2001.....what a profit! (Source:WSJ).Cheers!MurphII and PP Home Fool(long TCEHY in my "Mad Money"/non-core strategy portfolio, due to a son in the video gaming industry)(also struggling with valuation on this one)
Yes, I have been following Naspers for years and owned them occasionally. Big overreaction today, they 'promised' not to sell anymore for 3 years, fwiw.Trading at ~40x 2018 EPS, Pony Ma has given growth estimates of 45% for Q1 and 40% for Q2. A lot of angst about slowing gaming growth to 32%, not sure why that should drive the stock price as opposed to the whole enchilada. Besides, anyone who follows video games know that there's both qtrs of accelerating and decelerating growth from hits being launched and waiting for the new games to launch. Shrug.Cheers!Naj
I've been selling the past few days. Not TenCent but other names. I sold out of my NFLX position after ridiculously fast gains there, cut back on ATVI, took my big gains in TWLO, ended my losing trade in Micron, sold AAPL.No changes to my top positions in BKNG, GOOG, AMZN, MA, STZ.Watching the 150 level on FB.Can change direction at any time,Naj
you do this a lot - and it is appreciatedI really haven't sold or bot anything of consequence last Qthough I sharply reduced my intl exposure (no call there - I just didn't want to own it)i did sharply sell down some of my preferreds which like last year already seems like a mistakedid sell a few under 1% - PAYX most recently (2% payroll growth; pressure on margins; latest acquisitions dilutive to growth - I made too many excuses for it and should have moved to rid myself of it 10% ago)I trimmed GOOG higher but also added FB higher so...top 5 areunhgoogicegibcsu-tI am somewhat indifferent to all for now in terms of looking to addtend to trade more around the EPS reportsand I'm at the position sizes I don't really want to exceed--lots and lots and still more cash though - as has been my pattern for a whileat least now that cash earns some return--yeah, cramer just did a bit on NFLX where he was saying - in effect - that those who do discounted cash flow models are entirely missing the point - I am REALLY, REALLY, REALLY struggling with valuation on many names because of this - esp. w/CRM's recent purchasehttps://www.barrons.com/articles/salesforce-bulls-explain-th...subscription requiredThat noise you just heard was the proverbial valuation ceiling for public SaaS companies shattering into a million pieces. We wrote it above, and we'll note it again. Salesforce.com just paid 12x 2019 revenues for Mulesoft. Do not confuse our belief that Salesforce overpaid for Mulesoft with our more fundamental opinion that the asset makes perfect sense for Salesforce. We think it's okay to hold both opinions. Without knowing exactly how this situation played out just yet, the nature of today's mid-day leak (leading to share of MULE finishing the day up 27% at $42.00) leads us to believe there was a multi-party bidding war that Salesforce figured it had to win.
naj, if you don't mind, any specific reason you've sold appl? I have more than a casual interest (as i own it)...
I was too long overall, and the infamous 'gut feel,' so I wouldn't put any stock in that were I you.
Hmmmm, guess I should have sold more the last two weeks....probably a mistake not paring back any of my top 5 holdings. Well, not like STZ is the problem....
With the carnage in biotech I added a little to RCKT since I never got to build a full position, bounced 2% off my buy price so a nice start.
I've been selling the past few days. Not TenCent but other names. I sold out of my NFLX position after ridiculously fast gains there, cut back on ATVI, took my big gains in TWLO, ended my losing trade in Micron, sold AAPL.Boy, what an array of awful trades. I stink.Should have held: NFLX, TWLO, AAPLShould have taken profits in TenCent.
you have any thoughts on bkng?16% cc top lineoperating up 37%course, nobody caredthey low-balled the Q3 booking and subsequent numbers (AGAIN)and rampant fears of market saturation starting to perk up (and compares are tough)I understand there could be a share ownership change going on (top line junkies to FCF owners)but the latest decline seems outlandish unless you think this company is somehow losing its moatBS is obviously out of this world and they print money (5350 TTM CFFO; EV is 81b now)realize it is treated more as a travel company than a tech onevaluation proves it I'm small in it - nominal, but thinking about more
Naj wrote the following in late July:9%+ goog and 9%- amen7.5% bkng6% MA and FB0% aapl2.7% msft5% adbe17 longs and 3 shorts.Thinking about AAL or DAL.
9%+ goog and 9%- amenMy browser "autocorrected" AMZN to amen. I find that funny. And I am sure Naj is laughing all the way to the bank!!
and TenCent profit hurt by China's regulators worried about mobile games.Le sigh.
Yeah, they totally lowballed it. Probably a good place to add. Still think this has a 10-yr runway.
JPM: '?NeutralPrevious: OverweightBKNG, BKNG USPrice: $1,942.39?Price Target: $2,070.00Previous: $2,385.00Key Takeaways from BKNG Earnings & Company Calls:1) A number of issues dragging on near-term growth, but potential for top-line deceleration into HSD, vs. prior DD, is concerning. BKNG’s 3Q guide reflects QTD actual results, which are pressured by the World Cup and unusual weather patterns in Europe, and assumes further deceleration for the rest of 3Q. But +9% room nights booked growth and +8% FXN bookings growth at the high end of the guide imply more deceleration than anticipated. We believe the guide may have upside, and BKNG saw some rebound in Europe post the World Cup, but weather challenges remain. Still, the 2H deceleration factoring in conservatism is lower than the acceleration we were expecting, and we now model 10% growth for both room nights booked and FXN bookings in 3Q, down from mid teens. The upside from comps easing in 2H may not be as significant as anticipated, but BKNG’s investments into the platform, including faster growing Non-Hotel Accommodation, and in brand with ~50% of room nights coming from the direct channel should still be a nice tailwind longer term.'
BKNG’s investments into the platform, including faster growing Non-Hotel Accommodation, and in brand with ~50% of room nights coming from the direct channel should still be a nice tailwind longer term.' Are they competing with Airbnb on their turf?
Still think this has a 10-yr runwaycould you expand on why you think this? What is their total addressable market?And do you see them being competitive in Airbnb’s market? Conversely, could AirBNB leveeage its lead in its own market to be a contender in Bkng’s market?
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