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https:/finance.yahoo.com/news/1-sky-high-dividend-stock-210200640.h...

Matt DiLallo says stay away, too much negative and the dividend may likely get cut.

The ten year history is that the dividend was at $3 per stub, rising to about $3.25, until Nov. 2016, then down to current level of $2.00. May well be a 20% yield later today.

Their most recent stumbles occurred with a Q4 write down of the unhedged portion of fuel inventory, mostly butane (9.5 mill), and the continuing lagging of activity in the offshore drilling world (1 mill).

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4241114-martin-midstream-pa...

The discussed plans to delever the balance sheet and search for improved commodity hedging sound fine. With 39 million shares outstanding, the annual distribution of $2 does not seem to badly scrape the $159 million in EBITDA projected.

"In summary, our 2019 adjusted EBITDA forecast is $175.4 million before unallocated SG&A of $15.9 million or $159.5 million in total. Total capital expenditures will be between $33 million and $37 million with maintenance CapEx being approximately $20 million to $23 million and expansion CapEx estimated between $13 million and $14 million." - CFO Sharon Taylor.

Of course, actually hitting the numbers counts as a major important assumption.

Admittedly, the various businesses of the company make a firm grasp on the operations and the importance and scale of changes and events difficult to readily appreciate. Likely par for the course with a small cap, commodity driven (to some extent) 20% yielder.

It seems like the market hates this operation enough to point me to a contrarian buy of modest size. A 50% dividend reduction would cover almost 80% of their 2018 interest expense, which is likely to fall in 2019.

As for Matt's comments and view, I will readily agree that I've been warned.
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