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I don't see why Visa's IPO is going to have such a huge impact on Mastercard's shares. Are there really people out there who think "I'm going to pay a $10 commission to sell MA so I can pay another $10 to buy V because I think Mastercard is going to get edged out of the credit card business by this strong new competitor"? Are there people who think that the IPO changes anything? Maybe Visa's IPO will cause people to rebalance the credit card payment systems segment of their portfolios.

If a rational investor owns MA, he's not going to sell it because of Visa's IPO. He might buy V with other money, and he might sell for another reason, but no decent investor, individual or institutional, will sell MA because of Visa's IPO. So what's the big deal? 

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