Just a quick update here, at work now so I can't do anything in depth. HUBS is Andrew Left's next short target. Just posted on Twitter about it, appearing on tv this afternoon.
That pantload is a marketer whose only gift is attracting attention. He is not an investor. Easiest game plan on Earth - find stocks growing quickly, smash them with every single thing you've got, profit off the meaningless price drop. I hope he hits the stock price hard. I will gladly add more. Inbound Marketing, done well, is brilliant.My brief stint as comedic stock hustler like Left...I once had a joke going on the boards, or my old CAPS blog, can't remember where, that I was going to create "Shyster Capital Management" our tagline was "A Helping Hand In Your Pocket" and I would post nonsense like FB sure to hit a trillion, or Netflix to go to Zero. I had to shut it down as some people would always take me seriously. I would actually get emails asking when to buy or sell. I would tell them to watch the stock go up, down, down, up-up-up, down and wait for a diagonal burst to make your move, especially if it aligns with an eclipse or other solar event. Very grateful for this board! Thank you, Saul et al.Best,BD
Here's a link to his Twitter Profile where you can see the beatdown he's putting on HUBS...https://twitter.com/CitronResearch?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7C...
Here is a link to the Citron report. I have yet to read it, so I don't yet know if it might have validity or be shoddy (or very shoddy as was the case for the Ubiquiti "total fraud report"). http://citronresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/HubsRep...Beginning/summary of the report:Seven reasons why $HUBS will trade down to $50 inthis rotation, fundamental value at $25/share.1. No Pricing Power: HubSpot has reduced the price of its key productoffering to $0. Going freemium because they can’t keep up withcustomer churn. Note: this is not $SHOP who although we have issues withtheir marketing practices, was able to increase pricing on customers2. Transparency no more: For a company who has boasted abouttransparency in corporate communication, they have now gone dark onWall Street and industry consultants. See addendum for KPI eliminationand Gartner.3. Partner decline: Major deceleration in agencies/business partners, thelifeline of HUBS business.4. Growth hitting a wall: US biz growth level in serious decline- evenattendance at their Inbound Conference suffered greatly (from 35% to10% growth). If you can’t make money in a country with 300 millionpeople and one language- good luck in Europe5. Corporate defections-Bad Business or Funky Business? : High-levelcorporate defections cannot be ignored. Former top executives startingrelated businesses – In the HubSpot Offices without disclosures.6. Broken business model? Selling campaign based ad software to SMB hasand will never be a scalable model. Worse HubSpot’s pivots into CRM ismoving into a wasp’s nest of competition with an inferior product.7. No IP: Lack of any real intellectual property or patents.
That pantload ....I can't stop laughing. BroadwayDan, thank you!Dominic
My pleasure, Dominic!For what it's worth, my personal theory is excellence wins the day. I let smarter Fools who can do things like math and business analysis do my heavy lifting. My investing style is like my flying style. I put a lot of trust in the guy who wears the United Pilot's outfit and the logo on the plane. Here's one site that has 1732 Reviews of HUBS and it's a 4.4 with countless raves...https://www.g2crowd.com/products/hubspot/reviewsHere's PC Mag's review, "Excellent"...https://www.pcmag.com/review/352587/hubspotHere's Software Advice... 1442 Reviews, 4.5 stars...https://www.softwareadvice.com/marketing/hubspot-profile/To Left's credit, he whaled on OSTK's recent run up. I do not say the guy is stupid or makes all fake points. But I stand hard by my assertion - He blows things wildly out of proportion, hypes his calls, exaggerates reasonable concerns and goes after stocks with big run ups. This is all fair game, of course, I just personally don't like his style.
Thanks for the investigative reporting, Welgard!What is everyone doing about this? I think I will sell some with the hope to add back cheaper after Left goes on TV. But I dare not sell all. Past experience would indicate that HUBS will fall on Left's attack...probably for a few days. But that's the trouble with the stock market: in the short term, it doesn't always do what it's always done.Bear
Bear's hypothetical P/E ratio assuming a 30% margin for Hubspot was only about 27.6 as of yesterday, so a bit lower now (about 27.3). Hubspot is not crazy overvalued. Current Price to sales ratio on a TTM basis is currently about 8.2 (at a share price of $75.75).http://boards.fool.com/when-i-go-shopping-6-off-isn39t-enoug...Bear's explanation:http://boards.fool.com/marginal-thinking-32898226.aspx
Post 35,000 on the board (unless someone else posts before I finish typing)I have read through the Citron report now. I find the inclusion of slowing attendance growth for the Hubspot inbound marketing conference to be a bit silly. In 2015, there were 14,000 attendees, then 19,000 attendees in 2016 (35.7% Y-o-Y growth), followed by attendee growth of "only" 10.5% Y-o-Y to 21,000 attendees for 2017. I think it is silly to think that indicates much of anything. How could a single conference accommodate much more than 21,000 people?
I mean 34,600*
Volfan84 - it's an utterly farcical point, the kind of thing someone includes when throwing everything and the kitchen sink at their argument. Beyond absurd. It shows that Left doesn't have enough actual ammunition. It's pure persuasion tactic - bombard people with enough talking points and they'll say, "Well, he might be a little over-the-top but there must be something there"... Also, as far as top execs leaving, how well has PayPal done since losing Elon Musk, Reid Hoffman and several other tech giants?
As I write, a number of hours after the news release, Citron has only managed to drive a $77.35 stock down $1.45, or all of 1.9%. I wouldn't worry too much.Saul
I do like watching my CEOs in action. And to track how a company communicates. Will be interesting and informative to see how they handle this adversity. I'm hoping for an aggressive but respectful response. Thank Left for his concerns, he's wrong because of A, B, C and D. He's failing to factor in E through Z.
Just sold all my HUBS at a small profit. I'll probably buy back in after the short attack takes hold. Or I may redeploy the money elsewhere. Haven't decided yet. My HUBS position was small, around 2%, I'm not exactly in love with the company.
Wow, Hubs now up 50 cents after a short attack by Citron. Hard to imagine anything more bullish than that for a stock. "Just saying", as the expression goes.Saul
Wow, Hubs now up 50 cents after a short attack by Citron. Hard to imagine anything more bullish than that for a stock. "Just saying", as the expression goes.It actually started going back up about the time Left got on TV. Apparently he wasn't very convincing this time. In fact, I tuned in midway and after he said a couple very unconvincing things, the interviewer got bored and asked him about bitcoin.Anyway, I'll probably wait until tomorrow to start buying it back, just in case. Even if Left's attack has already glanced off, maybe I'll get lucky and see a cheaper price due to more sector churn.Still, very interesting that so far Left doesn't seem to be having the same affect that he did on UBNT and SHOP. I wonder if people have started to take his ideas for what they're worth.Bear
I wonder if I should consider an investment strategy whereby I buy into companies that Left recommends selling. ...Marc
One can only imagine the temper tantrum Left is having right now. Eye makeup must be a mess. Big difference here is the heat of the attack. The others were much harsher. He called Shopify outright fraud, which was ridiculous. Here it's relatively moderate concerns and awful reasoning: HubSpot won't work in Europe because it is not yet profitable in USA where we speak one language, so it won't ever make money in Europe where they speak lots of different languages. And questioning the growth rate of a conference that racked up more than 21,000 attendees and featured an impressive lineup of elite speakers has to be among the all-time stupidest reasons ever given to bet against a company/stock.
I sold all my HUBS a couple of weeks ago.. It had nothing to do with Left or anything other than that I never really understood the company's edge and that was the easiest way to raise a bit of cash.
I think what we learned about Andrew Left is that he can help us make money.1. Wait until he attacks a stock.2. Buy a day or two after.3. Within two weeks the stock is back up.I like the description of him " a pantfull " - very good description.
Maybe Left is getting his short ideas from this forum. Only half-joking, since he's now trashed at least three that are often praised here.
Maybe Left is getting his short ideas from this forumI would not be at all surprised if he were a TMF subscriber. He's attacked numerous picks, especially from Rule Breakers.-Dave.
Wow, Hubs now up 50 cents after a short attack by Citron. Hard to imagine anything more bullish than that for a stock. "Just saying", as the expression goes.SaulI guess others saw it the same as me. Now, the day after the short attack, fifteen minutes after the open, they are up $2.05 (after finishing up on the day of the short attack by 10 cents).Saul
I guess others saw it the same as me. Now, the day after the short attack, fifteen minutes after the open, they are up $2.05 (after finishing up on the day of the short attack by 10 cents).It's really too bad that the stock didn't drop this time so that we could once again ride on Left's coattails and profit from his shenanigans. ;-)Chris
Current Price to sales ratio on a TTM basis is currently about 8.2 (at a share price of $75.75).The above referenced $75.75 share price was from right around 12:45pm on 12/5/2017.HUBS closed today (12/7/2017) at $82.70 per share.This might be indicative of Andrew Left/Citron having succumbed to essentially being the boy who cried wolf. The Ubiquiti attack ("TOTAL FRAUD") was particularly crappy, followed closely by the accusations that Shopify would have FTC issues associated with its affiliate marketing. Those 2 attacks proving to have relatively little impact a month or 2 later (more lasting impact for Shopify, it seems) have probably aided the market in being more discerning about Andrew Left's short calls.
The above referenced $75.75 share price was from right around 12:45pm on 12/5/2017.HUBS closed today (12/7/2017) at $82.70 per share.This might be indicative of Andrew Left/Citron having succumbed to essentially being the boy who cried wolf. The Ubiquiti attack ("TOTAL FRAUD") was particularly crappy, followed closely by the accusations that Shopify would have FTC issues associated with its affiliate marketing. Those 2 attacks proving to have relatively little impact a month or 2 later (more lasting impact for Shopify, it seems) have probably aided the market in being more discerning about Andrew Left's short calls.As an additional follow-up, Hubspot has gone above $90/share here on 12/15/2017.Great call, Citron!!
Hubspot has gotten up to $100/share today, a better than 30% gain from the depths it fell to following the Citron attack ($73.15/share was the low price on 12/5/2017).
Hubspot has gotten up to $100/share today, a better than 30% gain from the depths it fell to following the Citron attack ($73.15/share was the low price on 12/5/2017).Actually that's 36.7% in a month and a half. So much for Citron short attacks killing a stock. Of course UBNT is up 50% from its short attack bottom (I think), and that's taken all of 4 months. Citron really should be believed (irony) 😀
Bank of America (Merrill Lynch) raised their price objective on HUBS this morning to $115. I notice that each time the share price gets close to their objective they raise the bar. They made it a top pick in the sector with increasing growth going forward. They state that they have made calls to a dozen digital marketing and sales partners and the feedback suggests continued momentum in the core marketing business and accelerating wins in the sales business.They spoke with several specialized sales/CRM partners, noting strong/accelerating new customer momentum, driven by demand for a tool that is simple to deploy and fully integrated with a marketing system over competing small to medium sized business offerings.I can’t put a link here to their analysis because it is through their site which has to be logged into but it is very bullish going forward. They don’t get all of their picks right but their track record is pretty good.I was kind of waiting for another pull back in share price to add more but I will be adding more now to what looks like will be a winner for a few years.Larry
So much for Citron short attacks killing a stock it might work better at keeping prices down in a bear marketCitron has a published record , some analysis of that might reveal the probabilities of playing his shorts. How long time wise ,how much price wise before the optimum probability point of buying his short?
......depths it fell to following the Citron attack ($73.15/share was the low price on 12/5/2017).With Saul's reflections on some of the recent short attacks, I decided to find this thread. Wouter, you could have gotten into Hubspot at under $75 with really good timing.
With Saul's reflections on some of the recent short attacks, I decided to find this thread. Wouter, you could have gotten into Hubspot at under $75 with really good timing.</>Yes, but that was not much of a decline from $77 and it actually finished up 10 cents on the day, so you would have needed to be very quick to get a small discount from the day before the short report. With SHOP and UBNT, the discounts were much larger and you had more than a few hours to get in.
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