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Wayne
First your thoughts are welcome as are everyones.
I have no desire to convert anyone to my way of thinking.

so I stick to following a particular horse and when he is in a race where he is not properly priced by the bookmakers then I make the bet (and I bet significantly).
You can't be sure that the horse is going to ever produce the form that it did before that made you like it.
Well I aint no virgin in the betting ring.
As a Punter I know.
-Most races are won by favourites.
-The numbers 1,2,3 are the most likley to win or run a place.
-Horses draw from barrier 12 or beyond are less likley to win or run a place
-2 year old races are risky to bet on as no form history or very little exist's.
-Maiden races are risky to bet on cause no ones ever one before.
-Horses that have run 1,2,3 in each of thier last 3 or 4 races in similar company have a much better chance of winning or placing.
-Horses carring more than 57kilo farther than 1600 often struggle.
-A fav that is seperated in betting by more than 1/2 by the majority of ring bookies from it's closest rival is a very good bet.
& then you got form knowledge, jockey considerations, weather, trainer considerations, etc

Sector rotation in stocks happens when investors,traders etc sell stocks in one sector and buy in another it really has nothing to do with betting on horses or probability theory. It is humans that make those decisions based on 6 month projections.It's crowd mentality stuff.

determine which sectors will move in which direction over the next 12 months
Well thats not what I do.
But do you think you have the skill to be able to pick one company out of the all the contenders that will give you Berkshire like returns over 20 or even 10 years?

I'd rather put the odds in my favour, reduce risks & remove my winnings from the table. Using the sectors to see were the money is going & deciding which stocks in the sector are strongest & likley to return the most.

JR


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