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No. of Recommendations: 26
This is a long and boring two part update:

Part A. - Bringing the Portfolio Up to Date.

Part B. - Ranking the Portfolio

Part A: Bringing the Portfolio Up to Date.

Hi All:

Since I have been running the Mongoose Invitational I managed to skip Week 11: It went into the Right Hand column and the portfolio season record went to 6-5. Alas - with this weeks market results the portfolio is now 6-6 for the 2021 season. Bummer!

In fact, with the ongoing correction, those of us in Growth have been staggered by a combination of a left paw upper cut followed by a round-house right to the jaw. Staggered - but still in the fight! After today's close the portfolio is wobbling at +7.1% YTD. At the low point of the week the entire portfolio went negative YTD - but then recovered so I'll happily take the +7.1 and be thankful for it.

My worry is not that the correction will continue to spiral us downward - but rather, if the DOW and the 500 decide to follow then we are looking at a 25-30% drop. Not too awfully likely - thats recession zone stuff - and no one sees that in our immediate future - what with jobs, and the economy coming back - why...there is blue sky in our future; however, we may have to endure a little more of the raging storm to get there.

Here is how the major indexes have performed this week and YTD:

1) DOW

Ended last week at 32,627 and surged all the way to end this week at 33,072. Thats a gain of +1.35% for the week and a YTD figure of +8.1%. The Dow folks are pointing and laughing at us and reminding us that they have been forecasting our doom for about 7-8 years now.

2) The 500

Ended last week at 3913 and closed out this week at 3974 for a delightful weekly gain of +1.5% and a YTD gain of +5.8%. How about that?

3) The Russ

Ended the week of March 19th at 2287 and closed this week at 2221 for a weekly loss of less than a point while maintaining a positive YTD gain of +12.5%.

4) Nasdaq

Ended last week at 13.215 and closed this week down a bit at 13,188. Still has a +1.9% gain for the year. Hardly much of a real correction if all four major indexes are positive for the year.

Now what that data tells me is that our aggressive high growth stocks that we are all gathered around like folks clustering around a fire on a cold night - are paying the price (Getting spanked as it were) for gaining so much ground so quickly. Lets take a look at a few of our high flyers:

CRWD - On November 9, 2020 CRWD closed at $132. Over the next 90 days it went on a $110 run to close Feb 8 at $242: A three month gain of +83%.

NET - Closed on November 9, 2020 at $63.77. NET closed on February 1 at $85.56 for a 2.5 month gain of +34.1%,

DDOG - Closed on November 9, 2020 at $85.82 and by February 1 closed at $114.90 for a 2.5 month gain of +33.8%.

How about a few more:

TWLO - Ended November 9, 2020 at $274.43 and closed February 8 at $435.29 for an (almost) 90 day gain of +58.6%.

TDOC - Ended November 9, 2020 at $183.07 and closed February 8 at $293.66 for a 90 day gain of +60.4%.

OKTA - Closed November 9. 2020 at $221.80 and finished February 8 at $291.78 for a 90 day gain of +31.5%

SHOP - Closed November 9, 2020 at $918.30 and finished February 8 at $1,499 for a 90 day gain of +63.2%.

I could go on with this but most of the highest of the highest high flyers have very, if not identical, patterns. So what does it all mean?

From the cheap seats: When I look at all the major indexes remaining positive for the year and the Russell sitting at +12.5% YTD, I think that some of our companies got too big for their britches and whats happening to just the selected companies - which happen to be ours - is not much more than payback. The good ole boys got tired of driving their Impala chevys to the levee while our lamborghinis drove circles around them. And, more to the point, they have now realized what most of us were on to for a while - the SaaS gold mines- and, they want in. But only if they can pull the prices back to a nice entry point. Like I said - this is coming from a tech simpleton so take it for what its worth - but remember this, a rotation by any other name will feel as bad. Or something like that. If it's any solace - take a look at the left hand side of the Nov - Feb spike. When we get relatively close to the November closing prices, minus some appreciation for some excellent ERs in the interim - meaning the approximate similar levels on the right hand side of the spike - then this will be over. You heard it here first. If I am wrong - just forget the whole thing.

So what about the Portfolio this week?

As mentioned above still positive for the year at +7.1%

A) STARTERS - Where I want most of my investment dollars.

1) CrowdStrike Holdings.

CRWD is the reigning King of Cloud End Point Security.

Began the week at $194.63 and ended at $177.68 for weekly loss of -8.7%. We're down about 15-16% YTD but still positive about 220% over the last year.

This weeks Scouting Reports:

The Fool Weighs In:

2) Cloudflare

NET is Cloud Based Network Services on Steroids.

Began the week at $71.69 and ended at $67.57 for a weekly pounding of -5.7%. YTD the company is -12.3% but over the course of the last year its gained +207%.

Current Scouting Reports:


ZS - Cloud-Based Zero Trust Platform Once Again in Vogue.

Started the Week at $181.56 and ended at $169.78 for a weekly loss of -6.4%. YTD at -13.5% but over the last year is +192%.

Recent Scouting Reports:


TWLO - Fueling the Future of Communications.

Started the week at $355.80 and closed out with a whimper at $319.79 for a weekly loss of -10.1%. YTD the company sits at -3.22% but over the course of the last year it's +238.34.

Current Scouting Reports:

The Fool Weighs In:


5) DataDog

DDOG - Monitoring and Analytics Platform for the Big Dogs.

Started the week at $84.03 and ended the week at $80.29 for a weekly loss of -4.4%. YTD the company is down by just over 20% while for the last year it sits at +132%.

Current Scouting Reports:

The Fool Weighs In:

B) The Bench - Hopefully Stable Companies with Growth Chunked In.

6) Teledoc Health

TDOC - Leader of the Pack in TeleHealth Medical Future + LVGO

Started the week at $190.98 and ended the week at $176.89 for a weekly loss of -7.3%. YTD - 12% but Positive at +24% over the last year.

Current Scouting Reports:

The Fool Weighs In:


PINS - A Visual Cloud-Based, Social Media, Advertising Developing Giant.

Started the week at $73.01 and ended it at $69.07 for a weekly loss of -5.4%. YTD the company is a +3.5% while over the course of the last year is +385%.

Current Scouting Reports:

The Fool Weighs In:

8) ZOOM Video Communications

ZM - ErrBody Can Be a Movie Star - Sorta. (And clean up the apt before you call mom!)

Note: I have been thinking about getting back into ZM for the long haul and when it recently dipped below $310 - I decided it was time. So here I am.

ZM started the week at $326.26 and ended it at $319.95 for a weekly loss of about 2%. YTD the company is about -6.5% underwater while over the last year it stands at +128%.

Recent Scouting Reports:

Filed Under: This Can't be Good:

The Fool Weighs In:


ETSY - Central Marketplace for Unique Items - Mega Superstar

Started the week at $215.41 and ended at $202.32 for a weekly loss of -6%. YTD the company is +10.28% while for the last year it is +375%.

Current Scouting Reports:

The Fool Weighs In:

10) Fiverr International

FVRR - Matching Jobless Talented People with Needy Talentless Companies.

FVRR started out the week at $224.93 and ended it at $201.88 for a weekly loss of -10.25%. YTD the company is +4.2% while over the last year it has gone +745%.

Recent Scouting Reports:

The Fool Weighs In (A lot):

C) Scout Team - This is for Test Flight, Try Out, You better get your poo together, companies.

11) Magnite, Inc

MGNI - Sell Side Advertising Ying Platform to TTD's Buy Side Advertising Platform Yang.

-23.9% for the week

Recent Scouting Reports:

12) Upstart Holdings

UPST - Cloud-Based AI Lending Platform

+14.1% for the week.

Recent Scouting Reports:

The Fool Weighs In:

13) Digital Turbine

APPS - On-Device Media Platform

-6.6 for the week.

Scouting Reports:

The Fool Weighs In:

14) ROKU, Inc

ROKU - Emperor of Streaming TV Platforms.

-11.7% for the week.

Current Scouting Reports:

15) Lightspeed POS, Inc

LSPD - Software and Support for Small Businesses - Just a Baby.

-4.5% for the week.

Recent Scouting Reports:

16) Inari Medical

NARI - Revolutionary Venous Disease Products.

-4.6% for the week.

Recent Scouting Reports:

The Fool Weighs In:

Note: With the Scout Team recent additions I placed pretty tight Stop Losses on them and got stopped out of a couple. I have eased back the Stop Losses and will most likely attempt to re-enter the ones stopped out of.

Shallow Hal summary: After all the market craziness recently I find myself pretty smug with the portfolio to be positive YTD. Having said that, the market can wipe that smugness off my weather beaten face in a single day. But here's the thing - you can look at this targeted correction as a tragedy or as an opportunity. It sounds trite but I look at it as an opportunity and am approaching it daily with that attitude. I have a plan that I follow which over time has become something of auto pilot which acts to prevent me from overthinking things too awfully much; which, with the way my old brain works is something of a delightful blessing.

In Part B I want to rate the portfolio companies on a variety of metrics and add some thoughts to the investing plan that is evolving in my mind for next week.

All the Best,
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No. of Recommendations: 14
Well done, excellent summary, and glad to see you're still in the green YTD, Champ. I personally intend to stay invested in this SaaS industry for years to come. The names I hold may change, but I'm confident that some of these names will become permanent leaders in their software niches, like a Salesforce, and do a 10x on their revenue within 6 to 10 years.

There's a reason that Microsoft is the #1 most valuable company on the planet by market cap right now, and not Walmart, whose revenues are more than triple that of Microsoft. There was a campaign slogan back in 1992, "it's the economy, stupid". If I may paraphrase for the situation right now, "it's the software, stupid". You can't beat the type of 80%+ gross margins that cloud and enterprise software companies enjoy. Walmart, GE and GM would kill to get margins like that.

And this line from your post:
The Dow folks are pointing and laughing at us and reminding us that they have been forecasting our doom for about 7-8 years now.

I nominate the above for quote of the week!

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No. of Recommendations: 3
Hi Ron:

Your post is music to the ears of Ears and he follows the BVP Index exclusively, I think.

It's a great carefree strategy and eliminates churn, itchy trigger finger trading, and a lot of worry. And - as you so succinctly point out - the SaaS model simply can't be beat for Margin and Recurring Revenue - and there will be huge winners.

If I am not mistaken, Dan created a BVP portfolio but I am not sure if he still has it or how it is doing this year.

Great Post Ron and I hope people are listening.

All the Best,
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No. of Recommendations: 0
Fantastic info, thanks.

I may post a quarterly report, I guess....

"The Dow folks are pointing and laughing at us and reminding us that they have been forecasting our doom for about 7-8 years now."

Oh, wow, talk about a conclusive buy signal, LOL; I have to dig deeper so I can add more!

Seriously. I did add during the early lows in March and again last Thursday-Friday as we revisited those.

It is a line in the sand now. We either go generally up (over the course of the year). Or it is indeed doom and gloom from here.

I am not willing to dig as deep as I can at this point, but I may find a little more to add.

I am even looking at two tiny starters in SKLZ and FUBO. What do you think? With so little info around about the companies and so early in the game, I am going partly by price movement. Have to think through it this weekend....
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No. of Recommendations: 8

Lately SKLZ has been getting absolutely wrecked and FUBO has come down quite a bit to what night be considered more appealing risk to reward territory. There are a lot of targets out there and my Saturday Afternoon list starts here:

!) TOP Priority:

Add to SE
Add to MGNI
Add to NARI

2) Lower on the Food Chain Priority:

Considering Scout Team positions


Note that my Saturday Afternoon list is subject to change and subordinate to my Sunday Morning list - which, pretty much evolves into my Sunday evening list. These things are complicated.

Could change my mind and start a Saturday Evening List.

All the Best,
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No. of Recommendations: 2
Upon further analysis, I will scratch what I wrote 2 days ago and add more money to our accounts. This actually hearkens back to my original plan from the start of the growth stocks crash. Valuations have come down enough for that.

Some will go into my wife's Roth IRA and some into the taxable account.

I will add more to both AI and U and probably do so rather quickly.

I will be more patient with adding more to SNOW and especially NET.

By the way, the valuation of BAND is getting insanely low. Somebody is very wrong here. Hope it is the market and not David G and us here. I am also 95% sure that BAND was the company that another service talked about without naming in an ad for their 2021 Power Portfolio of 10 stocks. The way they described the company and its customers fits completely BAND (hey, some of us actually know what a company is doing, LOL).

Although I am already more into BAND on cost basis terms than I am into any other stock, I can add more on account value terms. So that's a Plan B if either SNOW or NET don't go my way.

I will get my data on March 31 and look to post a quarterly portfolio update next weekend, if time allows.
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No. of Recommendations: 8
FUBO is oversold. I bought more at the close Friday. This is a definite long term hold for me and completely misunderstood. I’d rather be very early on this one and continue to build a position.

Great management team with their eye on online live sports gambling. They have the contracts, the partnerships to make this work.

If you really want to wait for a lower price put a limit order in at 19, but won’t be surprised if the low was put in Friday. I’ll keep nibbling either way.

SKLZ, I started a position at 24, nibbled at 21 and will most likely add on Monday or Tuesday.

8 other limit orders in. Went from 42% cash to now 20% cash in the last few weeks. Down YTD 5%, which I find is a blessing after such a churning and gut checking rotation. If I can only be down 5 to let’s say all goes to s*#&t 20%, to set my portfolio up for the next 3 to 5 years say to do 100% or more, I’ll take that all day any day and every single year.

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No. of Recommendations: 3
Many thanks for this, TMB; I do pay serious attention to your opinion.

I looked at FUBO earlier, also in the low 20s, a couple months ago, and was then kicking myself when it shot back up.

I also looked you know where. So I will just go ahead and move a small position I have in a SPAC over to FUBO instead. The SPAC basically held the money through the crisis. I was in at 10.40, will be out at 10.00-10.05, big deal. I will use that for FUBO right away.

Your post made me gather my strength to run the numbers. I will do so on W in detail and post next weekend.

But looks like I am only down 4% YTD across all accounts which is amazing after the beating I took across the board. I had zero cash when the whole thing started. I am pretty sure it is all because of two things:

1/ How much money my accounts made in no time in Jan-Feb (and so the huge losses barely affect anything that I had on Jan 1)
2/ GBTC. I am pretty sure GBTC saves the day here. I am down 2.68% in my 401k YTD, removing 2021 contributions, and GBTC is the only reason. My favorite ETF got obliterated in Feb-March as did all others. They are currently not much above their prior closing lows. I am 100% growth so even my 401k is a roller-coaster.

Obviously I fared quite poorly in my direct holdings, which is ok because I am more confident in my direct holdings than all but 1 ETF (and that one is too specialized to be my only ETF plus there is issuer risk to worry about as well so I have 3 EtFs from 3 issuers). That's where I have been adding money during the two March lows and will continue to do so next week.
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No. of Recommendations: 1
Mas, thanks for the compliment.
I’ll just add that I’m of average knowledge and try to always remember that Buffet interview which rings so true to me. That it doesn’t take incredible intelligence to do this, it takes patience and your emotions at check, along with your ego. It’s the ego thing that can really cause trouble.

So I think you might be talking about Ark Funds? Boy they have been so hammered. I remember writing a post and talking about my concern that so many people at the beginning of the year were jumping on board, quoting Cathie Wood, watching her daily transaction activities which she does post, mimicking her every move. Seems like whenever you see a frenzy like that, which feels like a large built for greed moment, it has to end badly. Of course as people jumped head first in it propelled these sectors up to stupid levels, we all saw it and wondered. Now we are getting the burst of the bubble, hopefully we are almost through it, I have no idea. I’m hoping that the end of the quarter and the story about Japan and bond dumping, that April is going to start a new uptrend, but I’m not sure we scared the weaker hands quite enough. Time will tell.

As for Cathie Wood and Ark, I’m a fan. I was in two of her funds two years ago for about a year. I pulled out last Sept I think, I was worried about her oversized exposure to Tesla and its dizzying valuation. I’ve put some funds back in ARKG the last two weeks and will continue to nibble as I think it’s a good way to be in that sector. I’d rather own a basket then try to pick a couple of names.

So are you in Ark Funds, thinking about it, adding? Your thoughts?

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No. of Recommendations: 7
I am stuck with ETFs in my 401k. You will see when I post my 1Q 2021 portfolio update next weekend.

So I have to pay lots of attention to ETFs. I have probably spent a 4-digit number of hours since Oct 2019 analyzing ETFs and my allocations. Most I consider a bad idea, including WCLD, CLOU, and pretty much all thematic ones. Doubt any will beat QQQ in the long run. But I have found less than 10 really interesting ones.

My favorite ETF is LRNZ . It contains 22 top AI/machine learning companies, starting with CRWD, ZS, then DDOG, U, AI, OKTA, GH, ABCL, BLI, CRM, AMZN, VRNS etc.

My second favorite ETF is ARKF. However, I will be placing a mental stop underneath it; now it is easy to know where. I will give it a little more leash from there just so as to avoid being trapped by an algo chasing people out. It is my only liquid ETF.

My third ETF is the one where I have been back and forth in and out of various ones. LRNZ and AKRF, too, are the fruit of consolidation in Summer 2020. The 3/3 of the money used to be in XLK. Then XNTK. Then ARKK. Currently XNTK again. I never was a big fan of ARKK. Too many questionable companies in there for my taste. I missed to realize 60% gain and had to settle for 20%. Still not terrible for 4 months.

I also own GBTC, a small position in LIT, and a tiny one in ETHE. GBTC kept my 401k alive in March.

Now, I fought a big battle with myself over ARKG in summer 2020. Should I do that or try to purchase shares directly of some companies? But how do I follow biotechs? Their ER are crazy! Well, I did go for a small ARKG position and sold it at about 64% gain in early March 2021 having been at 100% at one point. It is precisely the kind of the ETF that can get hurt by over-popularity. Because of her huge exposure to EDIT, NTLA, NVTA, Cathie sold so much EDIT/NTLA/CRSP that I was like, why am I still in anyway?

--Last summer I made a quick 50% on LIT. This time I have a much smaller position. The money is going into LRNZ.
--I will also sell 1/9 of XNTK and buy even more LRNZ, making it my largest ETF by about 25% ahead of ARKF and XNTK.

When the craziness subsides, maybe 2022?, I will probably look to return into ARKG but it will depend on composition and overall market situation. I own a meaningful to me EDIT position and I am looking to open an NTLA starter. I sold my NVTA shares and I am not considering going back there, just EDIT and NTLA. I also own IIPR, NARI, and TDOC in my "health" section (LOL). I do have limited but potentially very lucrative exposure to biotech through BLI, GH, ABCL, RLAY, SDGR in LRNZ.

I nominated LRNZ for 2 categories in ETF of the year, but did not get very far, I guess, LOL. I have been in touch with their communications director and even the PM. True Shares is new to the ETF space.
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No. of Recommendations: 11
                                                               30-day  03/26   03/26
Avg $ YTD 1-Year
Mgmt Assets Expense Volume Return Return
---------------------- -------- ------- ------ ------ ------
LRNZ TrueShares Active - mgmt weighted 25.4M 0.68% .5M -18% 67%
WCLD Wisdom Tree Passive - equal weight 1,152.6M 0.45% 35.2M -11% 92%

47% of LRNZ assets come from stocks also in WCLD.

LRNZ and WCLD are 99% correlated.

Caution to newer investors: LRNZ is thinly traded, vulnerable to daily price manipulation.
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No. of Recommendations: 0
Hi Ears,
Why I asked the question on other thread.

LRNZ also has about 32 million in assets. That’s troubling as well. Really no reason to not just own WCLD as you have pointed out in your numbers.

I have a position in both WCLD and PTF that I just let ride and add to a few times a year. My wife has an account that we transferred over and has been sitting in 95% cash for about 8 months. I felt a bit guilty not moving it into the market all this time, only had a starter position in SPY for her. I’m not good at taking any risk with loved ones money. As it turns out it’s been a good thing with the what’s been going on in the market.

I’m going to stick to ETFs with this account and just now moved about 5% into PTF. I need to go look at your allocations and what ETFs you are in. What are the top 5 you would buy right now for a bit of diversification and growth going forward? Guessing WCLD, but what others? I want to get her money invested in the next few weeks and build some positions.

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No. of Recommendations: 4

Appreciate you asking but unfortunately I'm not a good one to ask. I no longer actively invest.
The Carefree port that sort of tracks WCLD is just a hobby/experiment rather than an investment.
I've got another hobby/experiment going with SPAC arbitrage, but that's gambling, not investing,
and certainly not widows and orphans. A few shares of OLO because it's interesting. That's it.
Our real investments are in capital preservation stuff. So no help there, sorry!

And I don't have any investing advice, other than my wife and I decided years ago to become
independent of what happens in the market. We pretty much adhere to Warren Buffett's observation
that it's crazy to risk what you have to get what you don't need.

Sorry not to be of more help.

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No. of Recommendations: 0
“We pretty much adhere to Warren Buffett's observation
that it's crazy to risk what you have to get what you don't need.”

You actually did give me some very sound advise right now. I sometimes forget that and really how my portfolio is set up. I only have about 30% in hyper growth names, most of my money is in much safer investments for the very reason you state above. It’s why this tech sell off hasn’t been all that painful for me.

At this point I could really be about all capital preservation and be just fine. I really no longer need to take any risk. It’s why I cannot wrap my head around the people I know in their 70s and 80s that have all their funds in a concentrated portfolio of hyper growth tech. At this point what for, what’s the point really.

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No. of Recommendations: 3
Ears et al...

It may be off topic, but I would love to hear how folks on the board have built out their capital preservation components of their portfolios.

I find myself trending toward slowing down on the desk work front, and trending up on the fishing, brewing, and hobby farming work front. I do need cash flow to pay the mortgage on the retirement farmfront and other general expenses.

Currently mostly allocated to growth stocks. Given back about a third of my gains from last year, so kinda stuck/ waiting it out till things rebound.

One strategy is to keep a large 3-5 year chunk in cash and let the rest ride the growth train (Saul approach?). Another is to have less cash and complementary capital preservation investments delivering monthly dividends, and a smaller hyper growth cohort.

How do some of the retired folks here think about these things?

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