Week 13 is in the books and goes in the left hand column: The Portfolio 2021 seasonal record goes to 7-6 reflecting how up-n-down the market has been. Still, the last 2 days of week 13 gave us a nice rally and every company on the roster was carried along for the ride. Before I get too carried away by a couple of really nice days of portfolio performance, I remind myself that there is highly likely to be more turbulence, market chaos, and seesaw type days in our future - even if the worst is over. As such, I am committed to following my investing plan. After the Week 13 rally, the portfolio is sitting at +18.6% YTD. Better than some - worse than others, and probably about mid level for the growth investing - but active trading, cohort. No way of really knowing I suppose, but no matter, investing is not a competition - it's a personal expedition into wealth building. And its always good to remember that your personal wealth building stool needs more than one leg. In fact, while I really enjoy researching and exploring market opportunities - the bulk of the family wealth is in Real Estate and dwarfs our stock portfolios many times over. And it doesn't stop there. Before I retired there was the job leg now exchanged for a much reduced and weaker Social Security leg - which is augmented and easily out distanced by the wife's dividend paying portfolio leg. My point is only this: Our family wealth building plan includes multiple income streams and that has seemed to work very well for us. I hope you and your family have multiple income streams and several sturdy supporting legs on your wealth building stool as well and its never to late to think about that.So - What about 2021 Week 13 and The Markets in general:* The 500 gained 45 pts or so for the week and closed over the 4,000 level for the first time. It stands at +8.6% YTDhttps://finance.yahoo.com/m/5d4065bf-2ab5-3ccd-896c-93448e52...* The Russell 2000 gained 1.5% to close at 2,253.90 for the week and is up a fat +15.8% YTD.* The Nasdaq gained 342 points to close at 13,480 and is at +6.1% YTD. * The Dow gained 80 or so points during the week and is a +9.7% YTD.https://finance.yahoo.com/m/c546a634-9f37-34e1-8833-1c1a8b31...Note 1: I am a notorious data garbler so please check this data yourself.If doesn't take a long look at those numbers before it becomes apparent that this is not much of a correction at all - unless, you are holding high flying, high valuation, high growth companies just like the ones we hold dear to the heart. Reminds me a little of this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zq-kvGpEvrwIt has been mentioned in another post by TMB I think that the Nasdaq level of 13,300 is a critical line in the sand - a key support level, as noted by one of the Tech Guys we both follow: and this specific Tech Guy is superb at being a Tech Guy. That said, my personal line in the sand is the 13,000 Nasdaq level. Here's why:During March there were two specific series of weakness on the Nasdaq as follows:March 30, Close 13,045 with an Intraday low of 12,922March 29, Close 13,059 with an Intraday low of 12,968March 26, Close 13,138 with an Intraday low of 12,878 March 25, Close 12,977 with an Intraday low of 12,786March 24, Close 12,961 which was the days low.March 8, close 12,609 with an Intraday low of 12,599 March 5, Close 12,920 with an Intraday low of 12,397March 4, Close 12,723 with an Intraday low of 12,553March 3, Close 12,997 with an Intraday low of 12,995 Now...to be sure, I'm not a Tech Guy - far, far from it. I don't know the significance of a Double Crested Doji or that of Single Hump Loping Camels. But to me, while I doubt I might feel much unease if the Nasdaq closes below 3,300 - I would be much more concerned if it closes below 3,000 - along with an Intraday low below 12,500. More to the point - I would not be surprised at all if we retest the absolute lows of March and actually sort of expect it. Be that as it may, here is what happened to the rest of the port during Week 13:A) STARTERS1) CRWD - Remains 25.5% Below its High. Needs to find its Mojo.https://www.crowdstrike.com/Current Scouting Reports:https://finance.yahoo.com/m/5526841f-caec-3186-a050-4c1a6782...https://finance.yahoo.com/m/32e72830-7e67-36bb-8315-ee095263...2) TWLO - High Scorer for Starters with a Weekly Gain of 10.1%. About 23% Below its High.https://www.twilio.com/Current Scouting Reports:https://finance.yahoo.com/m/20a0a94c-3947-3855-adee-8342254e...https://finance.yahoo.com/m/a28d5e93-0414-3ba5-ab78-14530fbc...3) NET - Getting Good Positive Pub latelywww.cloudflare.comCurrent Scouting Reports:https://seekingalpha.com/news/3674851-cloudflare-launches-co...https://seekingalpha.com/news/3675684-cloudflare-stock-gains...https://finance.yahoo.com/news/cloudflare-recognized-2021-ga...https://finance.yahoo.com/m/c9c80303-adcb-3b3e-bc47-4394c9a2...4) ZS - Partnership with CRWDhttps://www.zscaler.com/Current Scouting Reports:https://finance.yahoo.com/video/crowdstrike-ceo-breaks-down-...https://finance.yahoo.com/m/4c1dbdd3-7d27-39d0-953b-6806a849...https://finance.yahoo.com/m/5f695c14-bc91-363c-995e-e994c1f0...5) DDOG - Bounces off Support between $75 -$77 Level Three Times Since 8/10/2020https://www.datadoghq.com/Current Scouting Reports:https://seekingalpha.com/article/4414482-buy-datadog-now-as-...https://finance.yahoo.com/m/59507399-3e2f-3dec-b40a-76b4dbbd...https://finance.yahoo.com/news/datadog-first-launch-windows-...............................B) The Bench6) SE - High Scorer of the Week Gaining +13%. Remains 17% Below its High.https://www.seagroup.com/Current Scouting Reports:https://finance.yahoo.com/news/10-best-stocks-invest-2021-15...https://finance.yahoo.com/m/9da09486-a93e-3057-b3bc-74426066...7) PINS - Hugely Impressive Last ER Report and High Relative Strength + Gained +12.5% Las week! https://www.pinterest.com/Current Scouting Reports: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4413988-pinterest-lot-valua...https://finance.yahoo.com/news/pinterest-reportedly-talks-ac...https://finance.yahoo.com/m/0504680c-0c36-3815-89ce-14b38bb9...8) ETSY - A Top Conviction Company - Great Last ER - And Still 17% Below its High.https://www.etsy.com/Current Scouting Reports:https://finance.yahoo.com/m/d01baf82-ed69-31f3-831a-2361688c...https://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-polen-capital-remains-opt...9) FVRR - High Relative Strength but Rock Bottom Accumulation Score. Gained +11.5% for the Week.https://www.fiverr.com/Current Scouting Reports:https://finance.yahoo.com/m/4fef9c13-3ab5-3e73-9cdc-f81b69b6...https://finance.yahoo.com/m/9818fb40-66fe-3e75-b0fd-cebd26e0...10) ROKU - Remains 32% Below its High but Chipped in +8.1% Last Week.https://www.roku.com/Current Scouting Reports:https://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-rga-investment-bullish-ro...https://finance.yahoo.com/m/db9c595c-db38-381d-be32-58e038cf...............................On break for some definitively needed exercise.Coming Up: Scout Team and Starting Gate SummaryAll the Best,
Before I retired there was the job leg now exchanged for a much reduced and weaker Social Security leg - which is augmented and easily out distanced by the wife's dividend paying portfolio leg.My point is only this: Our family wealth building plan includes multiple income streams and that has seemed to work very well for us. I hope you and your family have multiple income streams and several sturdy supporting legs on your wealth building stool as well and its never to late to think about that.Champ, it's good to mention what shouldn't need to be mentioned, but you did and that's good: having multiple legs to financially stand on. We get wrapped up in numbers on these boards, how much in cash, being fully invested...I got rebuked a while back for saying I was fully allocated while having 40% not in stocks. That is my version of being fully allocated.I don't have any other legs in my financial stool, just the IRA. Next year drawing SS will be mandatory, then I'll have a 2 legged one, requiring balancing, and maybe I will be a bit more aggressive with the IRA. But sleeping well at night is more important than YTD performance. Saul mentions that he has been living off his investments for decades. You know that he is not selling shares in CRWD to fly to Paris, or NET to pay his CC bill. He is keeping an amount off the table that doesn't get reported in his monthly summaries. That doesn't get mentioned but it's good to realize that when talking about being 100% invested, it means 100% of funds targeted for investment,not your rent, grocery, and any other money that you could need in the foreseeable future. Obvious, but worth mentioning.
Happy and Blessed Easter to All!Continuation of Week 13:11) MGNI - Sell Side Advertising Platform - 33% Below its Highhttps://www.magnite.com/Last Report Highlight: 69.1% Revenue Growth and Accelerating. Guidance for 65% Revenue Growth Y?Y at the mid point.Current Scouting Report:https://finance.yahoo.com/news/magnite-invests-data-center-s...12) APPS - Rodney Dangerfield company up almost 2000% in the Last Year!https://www.digitalturbine.com/Last Report: "Company Guides FY21 Revenue and EPS Above Consensus"Current Scouting Reports:https://seekingalpha.com/news/3674718-digital-turbine-to-acq...https://seekingalpha.com/news/3668610-digital-turbine-buys-t...?13) NARI - Revolutionary Blood Clot Conqueror with 145% Y/Y Revenue Growthhttps://www.inarimedical.com/Last Report Highlight: 24% Sequential Growth in Venous Disease Patients treated.Scouting Reports:https://finance.yahoo.com/m/cefd2a39-e30f-31b2-bb93-a0ba7c23...https://finance.yahoo.com/m/4fef9c13-3ab5-3e73-9cdc-f81b69b6...14) TDOC - Remains 40% Below its High Penalized for Merger with LVGO and Thought of As a Pandemic Fat Boy.https://www.inarimedical.com/Last Report Highlight: 144% Y/Y Revenue Growth.Scouting Report:https://seekingalpha.com/article/4415276-teladoc-stock-poise...https://finance.yahoo.com/m/cefd2a39-e30f-31b2-bb93-a0ba7c23...15) DMTK - Chipped in +12.2% for the Week. High Relative Strength and Being Accumulated.https://www.dermtech.com/Last Report Highlight: Y/Y Growth of 69% in Billable SamplesScouting Reports:https://finance.yahoo.com/m/a7ca7a25-8540-35d6-ada2-c5c53311...16) LSPD - Canadian Cloud-Based Commerce Software and Support for SMB Worldwidehttps://www.lightspeedhq.com/login/Last Report Highlight: Revenue Growth +79% Y/Y with Customer Locations Closing in on 115,000 GloballyCurrent Scouting Report: https://seekingalpha.com/news/3672362-lightspeed-pos-gets-bu...https://finance.yahoo.com/news/lightspeed-acquires-vend-350m...17) SNOW - Everybody says two things about SNOW: 1) Its valuation is stratospheric; and, 2) Its success is inevitable. Currently 44.9% Below its High. https://www.snowflake.com/Last Report Highlight: RPO of $1.3B Representing 213% Y/Y Growth.Current Scouting Report: https://seekingalpha.com/news/3676759-snowflake-gets-bullish...https://finance.yahoo.com/m/9d3462d1-3f68-30de-bc46-91bc793a...18) SHOP - Added +8.4% this Week still 23% Below its High.https://www.shopify.com/Last Report Highlight: GMV Growth of 99% Year on Year.Current Scouting Report: https://seekingalpha.com/news/3678109-shopify-rallies-after-...https://seekingalpha.com/article/4416638-anyone-can-take-on-...https://finance.yahoo.com/news/10-best-stocks-invest-2021-15.................................Off to Celebrate Easter - and Lunch.Coming Up: April Starting Gate which is the What Do I Do Now following the Monthly summary of What I Done did.All the Best,
"He is keeping an amount off the table...."I am pretty sure Saul said he withdrew a lot of money in 2020 and had 5 years worth of living expenses in cash.
Hi Rivas:You bring up great points as usual. The thing is - the entire point of this board is to help each other in any way we can. And while our primary focus and the common bond that links all of us is stock investing, there is a great deal of fascinating life experience and a myriad of ancillary investing strategies collectively archived within the minds of some very astute people here. Take the recent posts by Ears delving into Growth. Good stuff - especially if you think you already know all about growth. Kathie perhaps putting together a 'How To' post on how to invest like a girl. Somewhere within us is someone who is keen and experienced with Value Investing - Dividend Investing, how about MSlob and Putnid talking about trading their respective ways? We could talk about a place for within the portfolios for REITS, more Biotech - etc...and the list goes on an on. And that's just for stocks.Why not address, in more than a sentence or two, other legs of healthy wealth building stools. What about TMB talking about how to get into the restaurant business? Someone leading the charge on Real Estate, General Money Management, Teaching Children about Money to fortify generational family wealth. Luckily, the Fool has most of that covered - but not all, and not for the folks who are unaware those great boards even exist - the lurkers and/or the Newbies orbiting around Saul's and maybe The Mongoose. And you mom good friend Rivas?I believe you may have another leg on your wealth building stool with an interesting potential: your painting. I've seen your paining and you are talented. And I think you have some of it for sale? Do I have that right? Vast potential to add other aspiring painters to a sort of Art Gallery Collective. That could develop into a really nice and profitable business. Right?The point of all this is simple: us older guys have been there and we realize the importance of planning far ahead. Results are the only evidence we need to support the economic impact, the proof in the pudding so to speak - of creating a multi-legged wealth building stool as early in life as you can . Just an opinion from the cheap seats.All the Best,
April Starting Gate: SummaryOk so...after semi-methodically and overly repetitiously, but stringently objectively, revisiting the portfolio in its entire entirety, I am now entering the subject-to-change formulation of the 'What to Do Now' - mostly - exercise and monthly phase. And this is what I have come up with so far.So two dynamics have coincided to arrive at the same place at the same time: 1) With the Incremental Downside Investment Approach rule (IDIA) - referred to less formerly as the Look-Out-Below rule, the portfolio is now about as fully invested as it can be with just a smidgen of cash left over (Sort of like the old wild West Indian attack rule of thumb whereby you save the last bullet for yourself) and; 2) The Nasdaq has perhaps conveniently arrived at what could be a correction bottom of sorts for us high growth types. This would be the perfect result for the IDIA rule, proving once and for all that the "Look-Out-Below" rule rules. Sweet success! Or - it could simply be a head-fake, a temporary resting place on a seemingly supportive index ledge that is about to fall away plunging the portfolio into the deep black abyss. Could happen. In such case, I repudiate, disavow, and declare occasionally invalid, the IDIA rule and was just kidding around. Now...having said that, should the dark side prevail - I have two last options before me: The RTHG Strategy - a surefire, almost obliquely proven further extenuation of the Look-Out-Below rule; and/or as a final worst case scenario, go to the Hunker Down and just survive until the All Clear sounds. Note: The Retreat To High Ground strategy is strategically dependent on this critical consideration:All That Glitters is Indeed Gold!So anyway - with those plans, ideas, strategies and potentialities outlined here is the Plan as it currently stands on a company-by-company basis. A) STARTERSCRWD - Thinking that this outrageously double out-sized position might need a hair cut reducing it to just a double out-sized position. Could happen.TWLO - Dang thing is reinventing itself and is in the middle of a resurgent resurgence. Would love to add but then it would be bigger than CRWD. No way that happens - yet.NET - Huge potential and trying to recapture some Mojo. Could trim here for some cash to go after a couple of other companies on the Must Have list. (I don't really have a Must Have list but if I didthere are at least 4 companies currently under consideration: One is a 5 Star lock. ZS - Really key player in the Cloud security business but come on - 4th best name I can come up with? Put this one in the Want to Trim Pile But Won't pile.DDOG - Another over sized position not living up to its reputation. Could trim slightly to raise capital and still have a very large position......................................B) The BenchSE - Maybe slightly bigger slice on any allocation pie chart (Don't have one but maybe should - dunno)than it needs to be. Potentially could be solid for the 6th man slot first off the bench - but thinking about it. PINS - Subsequent to their Global Break-Out ER report they deserve whatever I can give them; although, there are still a lot of doubters out there. Probably staying right here and would have to perform their way higher.ETSY - Simply outstanding with the only question being how much upside is there here. A lot of folks thinking its high flying pandemic related days are numbered - but, I'm not so sure. They have a unique space in the unique eCommerce space of folks selling unique items. Maintaining here.FVVR - This one is either Lights Out or Disappears. It's the Ron Swoboda of the portfolio. I did reduce it some lately and thought a lot about dropping it all the way down to the Scout Team level: but, that was just momentary MSFT induced confusion. Now its sort of a "Mac -I'm better now and want to come back inside" story.ROKU - No doubt a great company in the making with some declaring it the winner of the streaming war platforms. Could be and does look that way - but what's the upside from here? The company guided for 50%+ Revenue Growth so there's that. Still - could make room for some smaller cap names with more potential and this is an option I am considering. .................................................C) The Scout Team:MGNI - Happy with it so far and one of the primary reasons the port is positive YTD. Sold in and out of trading positions the worked out well. Leaving this alone for now.APPS - With mind boggling 2000% growth in the last year this will either be the personification of the whole "Past performance" and "Future Results" rule; or perhaps the Maury Wills steal of the decade. Ok - that's way too much hype: ratchet it down to a just a very healthy addition to the portfolio. Will have to earn its way to more playing time.NARI - Really like this company and its life saving/changing Venous Disease fighting tools. Might add here but the port really has too many moving pieces to be sure right now.TDOC - Presents a conundrum if I ever saw one: the market has discounted it while my view from the cheap seats thinks its something of a steal itself. One of us is wrong and were I a gambling man - which I suppose I am - I would take the market depending on the points. And it just so happens that the the share price points I think the odds are in my favor. If my viewpoint is remotely true - then it would also be true that TDEC belongs on The Bench.DMTK - Together with NARI forms the somewhat lessor half of the portfolio's medical duo. A pair of potential superstars that just have to perform. The company seems a "Can't Miss" candidate that is only fighting widespread public awareness and balancing its profits against those of dermatologists. LSPD - I keep doing a lot of light research on LSPD and the more I do the more I like it. The Revenue Growth is there as is the Global footprint. Probably leave it alone for now.SNOW - Fantastic company saddled with the Sky High Evaluation market mantra but recently retreated to a what appears to be a decent share price in comparison. So I've added it but that's probably that. Just hold for whatever ride comes along.SHOP - Read an article recently to the effect that if any company could challenge AMZN it would be SHOP.Could be, but with SHOP suggesting in their last CC that their speedy growth is going to slow down - you have to wonder what that means for share price or multiple contraction. ............................So there's the Starting Gate for April and one thing really bothers me: I have too many companies in the port - with the conundrum of not wanting to sell any of them; but at the same time, also wanting to add the following names:FUTUUPSTOLOUFUTU is definitely going to happen. Then I'll just wing it from there.All the Best,
Hey, this is fantastic; I greatly appreciated your comments.I will throw in a few comments as well for discussion's sake.CRWD: company+context=ideally positioned for largest holding in 2021, it is my #2 company.ZS: similar, but some of the numbers don't look quite as good, it is #9 in my ETF-forced collection of nearly 90 companies.DDOG: I take the lack of share price movement since like Jun 2020 as a great positive. Compressed spring for a bull market, reasonably priced if we somehow stumble. Added to my direct holdings recently and loaded up via LRNZ, which holds CRWD, ZS, DDOG, TWLO, U among others. I literally doubled the cost basis of LRNZ in my 401k because of these holdings (and the others are great, too). NET: see DDOG but growth adjusted valuation is much worse. Driving on the autobahn to 2030+ though. Personally expect a share price plateau in 2021 unless growth goes up. Just guts feeling. It is only a direct holding for me, which is challenging. OTOH, I need to add for that reason. OTOH, I feel like I have better options at the moment though NET is very high conviction. FLSY is in the penalty box, no shares at the moment but monitored. TWLO: my number 7 overall but owned entirely indirectly. This is about perfect for how I see it. Great company but not sure of the potential from now on. I own BAND directly instead.SE: my number 13 overall at present, it is entirely indirectly held. Gets in and out of Top 10. Perfect situation for me. I like it a great deal but I am also a lot more suspicious than most commentators. One of those companies will take the AMZN model too far and it could just be SE.PINS: lost vs ETSY as a direct holding in Summer 2020. Wish I had bought both. It is a lowly #42, indirect holding for me. Market cap worked against in in Aug 2020 and still does now. Would rather have it Top 20, but indirectly.ETSY: very high conviction. ROKU: if I had it, I would hold an oversize position through 2021, which many analysts see as the year of CTV. The numbers seem supportive of this. And what if ROKU adds a option not currently priced in. There are rumors. I would not trim a share of ROKU except I have no ROKU!FUBO: so instead I bought FUBO at 22, which is like 2/3s off 60+ ATH. Same logic as with ROKU but I love the market cap and the betting aspect. May just rounded up to a full size allocation.FVRR: FUBO is my FVRR. I made a quick 20% on FVRR and should have listened to myself that I need to hold through 2021. But I had not committed to indefinite holdings yet and was looking for a more strategic position. I don't trust FVRR long term.MGNI: I happily bought TTD on the way down in March 2020. So I am with TTD and FUBO, while you are with ROKU and MGNI. I think all four win big-as companies--in 2021. I like mine :)APPS: as mentioned earlier, being new and green, I overlooked it in late 2019. Not chasing anything.NARI: rounded up to full allocation under 100$. SNOW: while not in the forever part of the portfolio my standard allocation really is. Under the right circumstances, I could load up with an "indefinite" add-on portion. SHOP: max conviction holding for me along with SQ and MELI. Short of an absolute disaster of some sort, these three are untouchable. The market has kept SHOP's share price in check ever since early July 2020 so I don't think there is an expectation of continued ca. 90% growth. However, these three now feel like AMZN, NFLX, and APPL in, say, 2010. Full disclosure: back then I only had that feeling about AMZN and had no investment account as every cent was needed at the moment.TDOC: bought in fall 2020 in part because it simply seemed well priced. Sold and used 2/3s for ABCL and 1/3 for FUBO. LVGO is a greatly desirable component, but I will drop a large cap for a small cap at a bargain price anytime. Which is also why DOCU, which I love as a business, will be sold tomorrow-Tuesday and the proceeds split among, most likely, APPN, ABCL, AI, FUBO.U: for me U is an extremely important company. I was in the AR TMF portfolio for 6 months and got nothing from it in terms of holdings. However, I still think AR/VR will be a huge market and what better way to have exposure than owning by and away the leader in the software part of the story. Gaming is the floor, but I bought it for AR/VR. Very tempted to add but thankfully it is a good portion of LRNZ anyway so it is my #15 overall.OLO: bought a small position on a whim due to the S1 info and timing was what it was. I used some proceeds from companies I had sold (NVTA, ZNGA) so no new money was involved. I am wary of their first ER as S1 can paint a much more optimistic picture. So it is small and can be sold just as quickly as it was bought.FUTU/UPST: no opinion.Thanks for the opportunity to chat about these.
Hi MAS4R:Good commentary and appreciate you posting your thoughts. I particularly agree with the following:"but I will drop a large cap for a small cap at a bargain price" The trick of course is knowing whats a bargain and what just looks like one. And that's the crux of the hurdle I am facing with TDOC, ROKU and SNOW. All three of those companies are highly likely to do just fine longer term - but short term, it's hard to overlook the potential of the FUBOs of the world. (While I think I left it off my list I am actually thinking about it) Combine those thoughts with the desire to maintain something of a concentrated portfolio and the choices become much more difficult.I am not really the ETF type and have no desire to own 90 or so positions; given that, with some help from various subscription services and board trusted friends and Posters I think I can achieve better returns. Maybe so - maybe not: but the portfolio results over the last 4-5 years are definitely in the plus column for overall results. The closest I might come is to edge into Kathie's Space fund - Just to play along. All of which is why I am very interested to follow TMB's ETF contest and was delighted to read your comments on LRNZ. Once I see how all that is going I might become more of an educated believer. We'll see.All the Best,
Yeah, I wish I could drop the ETFs. Funny the plan allows 3x inverse ETFs but not individual stocks.It has crossed my mind to further reduce my 3 ETFs into 2 to concentrate further, but for this year, I like what I have.If LRNZ were liquid, I could be tempted into just holding those 22 companies. As is, I would like quick access to 1/3 of funds. Beyond that, I don't like ARKF enough relative to XNTK for 2021 so as to simply dump the latter.But let us see how the year unfolds. The more LRNZ underperforms in the short term, the better its valuation and long term return prospects. Maybe the semis within XNTK will lead the way for a few months...
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