No. of Recommendations: 0
http://www.webdesigns1.com/mycharts/display.php?p=565&u=tafool&a=TAfool's%20wicked%20charts&id=19

Wander off to the above link and put your thinking cap on. What would you do at this point? Long or short, hold or fold? Feel free to copy the chart and mark it up with comments, strange lines, pretty colors, or even spider webs.

After a bit I will reveal what the chart is of. The time frame is daily and the blue line is the 50% point of the most recent move.

Analyze this!
TAfool
Print the post Back To Top
No. of Recommendations: 0
Due to unforseen technical difficulties (operator error) the link has changed. Try this:
http://www.webdesigns1.com/mycharts/display.php?p=566&u=tafool&a=TAfool's%20wicked%20charts&id=19
Print the post Back To Top
No. of Recommendations: 0
Whew! One more. This is for folks that need volume to make a decision:
http://www.webdesigns1.com/mycharts/display.php?p=568&u=tafool&a=TAfool's%20wicked%20charts&id=19

Now, analyze that!
TAfool
Print the post Back To Top
No. of Recommendations: 1
Well, once again Ollie, it's a fine mess you've gotten us into....Try this link for price and volume (messed up that last one again):
http://home.earthlink.net/~dbradford1/guess2.gif

Once again, give it your honest opinion as to what you would do here. No need to get fancy, even just a "long" or "short" message is fine.

Just for knowledge, I would be Long. The reasoning is simple; it would be with the trend, it's just above the moving averages, it's now directly at a 50% retrace, and the Risk-to-Reward is in a great position. Placing a stop just under the recent lows is a logical choice to keep the losses to a minimum. There are a couple of more items but that might give away what it is.

Regards,
TAfool
Print the post Back To Top
No. of Recommendations: 0
I had the answer, but now I've forgotten what the question was....



--Castigs
Print the post Back To Top
No. of Recommendations: 2
2B top with an island reversal to boot! ;-)

Well, as I've indicated here before, I'm not altogether sure
yet about the reliability of 2B reversals, but one of the criteria for a 2B (break of the major trend)seems to have happenned. Contrary to popular belief, a break of trend does not necessarily mean "reversal".....I'd say it's trend neutral in the longer term (beginning of the chart).

The shorter term (and unbroken) trend appears to be down. It's started to level off recently, but when I zoom into the last 3 weeks or so, we're still looking at lower highs and lower lows. This one is only about 12% off the high so I suppose it could turn north if the current bull market continues, and make another charge at the 52w high (which sometimes acts like a magnet in a bull market...I mean it's plunged 20% or 30%...yet). Still, right now for DT timeframes I'd be biased short, but really I wouldn't take a new position at all in this one right now. It's right in the middle of the current channel and I'd want to wait and see what it does at one of the channel boundaries before I do anything (which could be several days from now either up or down). I guess that means I wouldn't take any new position right now, but if I were already holding short then I wouldn't cover just yet.

How's that for a wishy-washy amswer. ;-)

http://www.webdesigns1.com/mycharts/display.php?p=569&u=derek&a=Derek's%20Charts&id=4

--Derek
Print the post Back To Top
No. of Recommendations: 0
"I mean it's plunged 20%..." = "I mean it's not plunged 20%..."

:-/

--Derek
Print the post Back To Top
No. of Recommendations: 0
>>> "I had the answer, but now I've forgotten what the question was...."

Chicken! ;-)

--Derek
Print the post Back To Top
No. of Recommendations: 1
>>>Chicken! ;-)

just because he has feathers....

oh, nevermind

pup
Print the post Back To Top
No. of Recommendations: 4
ok, too late to be drawing charts or long winded discussions so for now I'll just put my mouth where my money already is, I am "short" this "stock" presently:)


--Castigs
Print the post Back To Top
No. of Recommendations: 0
>>> "I suppose it could turn north if the current bull market continues, and make another charge at the 52w high"

One thing I'll add that's somewhat related...I'm pretty surprised after all that's happenned how many fairly popular tickers that are right up at/near their 52 week highs. What's surprising is that these are not tickers that I would call "war" stocks. Topping the list in the universe of Naz stocks I track (sorted by distance from 52w high):

NVDA
CDWC
GILD
CEPH
CEFT
IMCL
APOL
GNSS
NETA
BBBY
ERTS
KOPN
THQI, and....

EEEEEEEEBAAAAAAAAY ;-)

--Derek
Print the post Back To Top
No. of Recommendations: 1
ok, too late to be drawing charts or long winded discussions so for now I'll just put my mouth where my money already is, I am "short" this "stock" presently:)


--Castigs


OK...IMHO Bob is the "King of Mastertraders" in my eyes, so I'm short too!! LOL
(Bob.....I still didn't get my "fanclub-cap"??? ;-) )

Though I would have covered at dereks downchannelbottom.... ;-)..... and wait to see if the channeltop holds as resistance to get back in short!! If not......it might be a potential 2B !!!

JMHO :-)

Janny


Print the post Back To Top
No. of Recommendations: 5
Assuming the “trading timeframe” is the one represented by the entire chart, then my reading is as follows:

BULLISH CASE:
- The stock is currently making higher highs and higher lows
- The UTL has just been broken, but the stock has not made a lower low yet in the timeframe shown
- So we have a Trader Vic #1, but no #2 or #3
- So there is a possible change of trend in progress
- The stock is trading above its rising long term MA
- The recent decline falls within normal retracement expectations (50%R)


BEARISH CASE:
- It appears to be late in the move, and the chart has a somewhat “toppy” feel to it
- Volume on the recent downtrend near the right edge was significant

OVERALL:
- Would not initiate a new position until the potential change of trend is resolved (unless one wanted to play swings between 91 and the last top).
- Would hold a LONG position with possible STOP locations under 91 (former resistance and now support) or under the 62%R (although arguably one should have taken some profits already).

Again, timeframe is key. If the trading timeframe is not represented by the entire chart, but instead by just the last 40-50 bars, then long positions would be inappropriate and one could be playing the recent downtrending channel from the short side.

These “blind” tests are very interesting for practicing pure TA without any market/sector/stock biases.

Robert
Print the post Back To Top
No. of Recommendations: 1
>>>the chart has a somewhat “toppy” feel to it<<<

Can I add toppy to the TA lexicon aside squishy, hinky, crispy, zoomy, whooshy, swoopy, sloopy, and piddly?


>>>These “blind” tests are very interesting for practicing pure TA without any market/sector/stock biases.<<<

I agree. Great idea. Let's do more of this. Of course, come Monday morning, we'll be expecting Daniel to tell us the correct answer. ;-)

pup
Print the post Back To Top
No. of Recommendations: 2
What action to take?
http://www.webdesigns1.com/mycharts/display.php?p=565&u=tafool&a=TAfool's%20wicked%20charts&id=19

Trend and volatility are traders' friends. This ticker is in a up-trend for longer term and in a down-trend for short term. However, this ticker's volatility is not high at all. One major concern for this ticker is that it went down during the last 2 months while the gereral market was moving up strongly. This would stop many pple going long.

The ticker has been moving down toward its 50% retracement and near its MA200. As time proceeds the ticker's downward speed is slowing down and approaching oversold stage slowly. As we approaching the Fed's rate decision day, there may be some positive movement for this ticker.

Due to its traveling against the general market's bullish trend, The bias is toward bearish. As we know, we make decision based on all info available, we've not been given enough info about this ticker and I couldn't find the ticker name "GUESS" anywhere is the universe....:-), I decline to play this ticker for trading purpose - "Volatility is traders' friend." Better having more friends. :-)

If one has to be long or short in this ticker, it'd be better after seeing its action against the 50% retracement and its MA200. It may take a few days. So, be patience. Patience is a virtue.
Print the post Back To Top
No. of Recommendations: 1
This is my analysis from before I caught up in chat. Honest!

Looking at the first chart without volume, if I had to go long or short I would say long for the reasons TAfool gave. However looking at the chart with volume, it wasn't a low volume pullback so it isn't the best setup for that. Volume is an important indicator for me. I mostly trade pattern breaks so this probably wouldn't be a trade I would take unless something happens either way, looking for a continuation of the longer trend or breakdown from the possible support where it's at right now.
Jeff
Print the post Back To Top
No. of Recommendations: 0
Print the post Back To Top
No. of Recommendations: 0
Wow, I'm starting to feel like Nic....

Another comment here, if the long position doesn't work I will go short out the whazoo 'cause this would then likely be the 1/2 way point of the current down move, which should target the $78/$79 area next. I'm a big follower of proportion and 1/2 way consolidations and it looks to me that the last consolidation occured at the teal line, the 50dma, and a bounce off of the 200dma (the red line) is a logical move.

Notice that there is still increasing volume on each leg up, which shows that there is still plenty of interest, and the volume tappers off on each sell-off. Although, volume was pretty brisk on this last sell-off. This could be approaching a peak, which is what I'm really looking for, so I will be looking to short at the first good break point. Maybe a double top coming?

Whatever happens in the next few weeks doesn't really matter 'cause I think over the longer time frame this will be one hell of a short. Of course, the safe way to play this is just sit back and wait for the break then go with it.

Since I feel a little frisky I am anticipating a final move up and am "long" at the moment with mental stops below the 200dma for any decisive breakdown. The comments about waiting are, I think, correct and patience would be the safe way to go.

So that there's no confusion, "Long" for the short term and "short out the whazoo" for the longer term is my view. My money is where my mouth is as I have a long term "short" at ~$97.75 and a short term "long" at ~$90.50

This thing may appear to not be too volitile but consider that this thing has TRIPLED in the past year. I think that's a good play.

Analyze this!
TAfool
Print the post Back To Top
No. of Recommendations: 0
>>>>TA said: I would be Long. The reasoning is simple; it would be with the trend, it's just above the moving averages, it's now directly at a 50% retrace, and the Risk-to-Reward is in a great position. Placing a stop just under the recent lows is a logical choice to keep the losses to a minimum.

I would go long also...I would put a stop buy just above the last high..to make sure it was going in the "right" direction. My stop loss would also be just below the previous low.

Jean
Print the post Back To Top
No. of Recommendations: 0
Well, once again Ollie, it's a fine mess you've gotten us into....Try this link for price and volume (messed up that last one again):
http://home.earthlink.net/~dbradford1/guess2.gif

Once again, give it your honest opinion as to what you would do here. No need to get fancy, even just a "long" or "short" message is fine.

Just for knowledge, I would be Long. The reasoning is simple; it would be with the trend, it's just above the moving averages, it's now directly at a 50% retrace, and the Risk-to-Reward is in a great position. Placing a stop just under the recent lows is a logical choice to keep the losses to a minimum. There are a couple of more items but that might give away what it is.

Regards,
TAfool


Coming into the quiz late (screw att and @home). I'd go long but I would probably set a much looser stop and look for the move more longer term--at least a month to play out (assuming this is a daily chart????). If it is intraday I probably wouldn't play it at all (not any kind of pattern that I would be willing to risk until i saw confirmation).

Eric
Print the post Back To Top
No. of Recommendations: 2
Well, here it is:
http://home.earthlink.net/~dbradford1/guess3.gif

Yeah, it was a dirty trick ;-) I was just trying to eleminate all prejudice.

If this bad dog gaps open on Wednesday it looks like my short (the "long") will get stopped out for a small loss :-( . At least I can take solace in knowing that the long (the "short") was entered at a very good point.

TAfool
Print the post Back To Top
No. of Recommendations: 0
Pardon an intrusion from a novice, but is that a classic cup 'n' handle I see there?

http://home.earthlink.net/~dbradford1/guess3.gif

Could be a confirmation of TAf's call...not necessarily the time frame, though, as handles come in all sizes.

Sandy

Print the post Back To Top
No. of Recommendations: 0
Original Message

Subject: Re: Weekend quiz
Author: SandyMack Date: 12/4/01 11:32 PM Number: 1870

Pardon an intrusion from a novice, but is that a classic cup 'n' handle I see there?

http://home.earthlink.net/~dbradford1/guess3.gif

Could be a confirmation of TAf's call...not necessarily the time frame, though, as handles come in all sizes.

Sandy


Good point, except the handle did not have a volume dry up, unless it has yet to come. The decline has exceeded the 50-60% pull-back range and the stock is below the 200dma (not for long, it appears!). Given these points O'Neil suggests that any CWH will likely fail.

I'm not a CWH'er so there may be other factors that would pump this up.

Here is a possible CWH forming along with a couple of notes:
http://home.earthlink.net/~dbradford1/CWHex.gif

Regards,
TAfool
(sorry Jeffo, no more non E&M posts, I swear!)

Print the post Back To Top
No. of Recommendations: 0
Pardon an intrusion from a novice and I'm not a CWH'er

Sorry .......I'm a novice too, but IMHO a CWH is a "continuation" pattern in an uptrend and not a "bottoming" pattern!!!

Please correct me if I'm wrong!!

Janny
Print the post Back To Top
No. of Recommendations: 0
Sorry .......I'm a novice too, but IMHO a CWH is a "continuation" pattern in an uptrend and not a "bottoming" pattern!!!

Please correct me if I'm wrong!!

Janny


Depends on who you talk to. Also, I can see where even the strict definition of a cup with handle could be a bottom formation if before the cup and handle the stock was flat. To decide whether it is valid as a bottom formation just think about the reasons as to why it is formed: The stock goes into a downturn. The stock reaches its bottom as buyers start to become interested again (valuation or new fundamentals start to bring people in). The stock climbs to a major resistance point--maybe it's the old high or maybe it's an old breakdown. The stock stops going up as people from that previous point get out even. This is light selling though as the handle forms. Then the stock *may* breakout from this handle as continued interest forms or new people anticipating the breakout jump on. Then of course as the stock breaks out people hop on. Whether it continues easily is another question. A stock that is in a continuation would certainly "run" better as it has no resistance ahead of it. One that is "bottoming" would still have some resistance to overcome from people who have yet to breakeven.

Eric
Print the post Back To Top
No. of Recommendations: 0
>> Depends on who you talk to. <<

Right. MST's "3rd Watch" has several variations on the classic CWH, and I believe they can occur just about anywhere.

Harold
Print the post Back To Top
No. of Recommendations: 0
Neither one of the 2 CWH examples shows declining volume from the left rim down into the bottom of the cup, quiet volume in the bottom of the cup and increasing volume coming up the right side of the cup. Isn't that required for it to be a CWH?

Jeff
Print the post Back To Top
No. of Recommendations: 0
Neither one of the 2 CWH examples shows declining volume from the left rim down into the bottom of the cup, quiet volume in the bottom of the cup and increasing volume coming up the right side of the cup. Isn't that required for it to be a CWH?

Jeff


I lost my William O'Neil book but I don't recall that as being in the criteria although he may mention it as an additional thing to look for. The main volume point is that the selling should dry up in the handle and that there should be a 50% increase minimum in volume on the breakout.

Eric
Print the post Back To Top
No. of Recommendations: 0
You are correct, WON does not mention the volume within the cup. But there are alot of things that WON doen't get into thoroughly that he should. I can't find where I found the info related to the cup's volume, but I believe Db mentions it at his site.Where he got it from, I don't know.

Jeff
Print the post Back To Top
No. of Recommendations: 0
Print the post Back To Top
No. of Recommendations: 1
Print the post Back To Top
No. of Recommendations: 1
Subject: Re: Weekend quiz
Author: Janegayne Date: 12/5/01 6:36 AM Number: 1872

Pardon an intrusion from a novice and I'm not a CWH'er

Sorry .......I'm a novice too, but IMHO a CWH is a "continuation" pattern in an uptrend and not a "bottoming" pattern!!!

Please correct me if I'm wrong!!

Janny


From O'Neils' book:

>>>>Cup patterns last...from 7 to as many as 65 weeks (most are 3 to 6 months). The usual % correction from the (cup rim) to the low point of the pattern is 12 to 33%.

It is normal for growth stocks to create cup patterns during intermediate general market declines of 1½ to 2 times the market average. However, stock downturns exceeding 2½ times the decline of the general market during bull markets are (usually prone to failure).

Volitile leaders can decline as much as 40-50% in a bull market....
...coming out of a bear market, some patterns that have decreased 60% or more can succeed...

The forming of a handle is usually more than 1 or 2 weeks and has a downward price drift (on dwindling volume near the end of the handle). Handles should form in the upper half of the base...the price drop of the handle should be within 10-15% of the peak of the right rim (in bull markets). (CWH's formed below the 200dma or) in the lower half of the base are (prone to failure).<<<<<

So, according to this a CWH is a basing pattern and matters not whether it is near a top (continuation) or a bottom (reversal).

Regards,
TAfool
Print the post Back To Top
No. of Recommendations: 0
<<cup 'n' handle>>

I haven't looked at it in detail but OCLR looks like a CWH,

http://www.webdesigns1.com/mycharts/display.php?p=582&u=gassah&a=Nic's&id=17

nic

Print the post Back To Top
No. of Recommendations: 0
Hi Daniel,

CWH's formed below the 200dma or) in the lower half of the base are (prone to failure).

and

Volitile leaders can decline as much as 40-50% in a bull market....
...coming out of a bear market, some patterns that have decreased 60% or more can succeed...


Most of the stocks that are coming out of a bearmarket are below it's 200 day moving average, so "prone to failure"
If they are "coming out of a bearmarket" and move over their 200 day MA and so come in "succeeding" territory for CWH patterns, they would be in an uptrend....wouldn't they??
So if a "bearmarket" uptrend would be basing in the bottom of the cup, the pullback to the cup's bottom, would be more than this 40-50 % of a bullmarket, thus 60% pullback!! (because of the gravity of the bearmarket?)

Oh well......just letting my logic work!! :-)

JMHO

Janny





Print the post Back To Top
No. of Recommendations: 0
<<OCLR looks like a CWH>>

Correction, a CWH b/o.

nic
Print the post Back To Top
No. of Recommendations: 0

Here a chart that explains "perhaps" a bit better, what I understand, with a CWH pattern that's ...coming out of a bear market!!

http://photos.yahoo.com/bc/jgruenig/vwp?.dir=/Chart%27s&.dnm=INHL+21-10-2001.gif&.src=ph&.view=t&.hires=t

Stockticker was kindly supplied by Warren !! ;-) (Thanks warren! :-))

Janny

Print the post Back To Top