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No. of Recommendations: 84
I place in nomination WendyBG for the Feste Award.


…..and I fully realize she has already been placed in nomination by another Fool, but I have carefully read TMFTwitty’s Feste post detailing nomination requirements and there is nothing there that precludes a nominee being nominated by more than one Fool.


…and since I may have inadvertently been the cause of Wendy not winning the Feste last year, it is appropriate that I nominate her and support her this year. How, you ask, might I have been the cause of her not winning last year? Wendy and I both post heavily, for me almost exclusively, over on the Macro Economics (METAR) board. Last year we were both nominated for Feste, and after the votes were counted, she finished with second runner up. It occurred to me then that we may have “split” the METAR vote; anyone voting for me obviously was not able to vote for her. Wendy, you deserved to win last year and you deserve to win this year, so let me make amends.


The Macro Economics (METAR) board is just what the name implies. We try to pick apart big picture stuff as this ongoing disaster continues to unfold in an attempt to at least survive if not prosper. If METAR is not one of your designated “favorite boards”, it needs to be. The more voices and participation we have over there the better. Here is Wendy at her best, explaining what METAR is….and is not.


What makes a message board tick?

The posts by the members.

The responses by other members.

The approval of the members, as shown by recs.

Several people have complained about the rising political content of METAR recently, and the lower quality of the posts.

Why do people write political posts on METAR, when everyone knows that METAR is NOT for politics and that there are other places where they would be welcome?

…..snip….

I am not your Mom. If you don't like the direction METAR is going, clean up your act.

If you want quality posts, don't bitch and moan -- do some research and post quality material about Macroeconomics on METAR! Be part of the solution, not part of the problem!

If you don't want politics, DO NOT WRITE OR RESPOND TO OR REC POLITICAL AND/OR PROVOCATIVE POSTS!.

METAR is an analytical board, not a board for passions. This is because passion clouds the mind and diminishes investing success -- and METAR is an investing board!

If your blood pressure rises when you read a post, do NOT respond to it! If your blood pressure rises when you are writing a post, do NOT post it! If you read such a post, do NOT rec it!

If you read a post that contains actual data and/or actual original macroeconomic thinking and analysis, rec the post!

If you complain about the declining quality of METAR, consider -- YOU are part of METAR!

Think about and post how Macroeconomic trends can help us invest better, make more money and lower our risks -- or post on another board.

Wendy



http://boards.fool.com/Message.asp?mid=27878218&sort=use...


Here are links to two more of Wendy’s best:


http://boards.fool.com/Message.asp?mid=27821801&sort=use...

http://boards.fool.com/Message.asp?mid=27548222&sort=use...


Wendy, you have fans on METAR and all over the rest of the Fool as well. This is your year; we will put you over the top.


Sonnypage
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No. of Recommendations: 5
A few of Wendy's posts:

Wendy is tending METAR. Unlike most boards, METAR has a cohesiveness and personality which must be constantly nurtured. She run a census so the METARs get a feeling for their “team members.”

http://boards.fool.com/Message.asp?mid=27792342&sort=use......


http://boards.fool.com/Message.asp?mid=27878218&sort=use......

http://boards.fool.com/Message.asp?mid=25893466&sort=who......

http://boards.fool.com/Message.asp?mid=28201682&sort=use......

Regular Posts:

http://boards.fool.com/Message.asp?mid=27821801&sort=use......
http://boards.fool.com/Message.asp?mid=27548222&sort=use......


http://boards.fool.com/Message.asp?mid=27764559&sort=use......

http://boards.fool.com/Message.asp?mid=27748773&sort=use......

http://boards.fool.com/Message.asp?mid=27802783&sort=use......
http://boards.fool.com/Message.asp?mid=27679394&sort=use......
http://boards.fool.com/Message.asp?mid=27675043&sort=use......
http://boards.fool.com/Message.asp?mid=27877380&sort=use......
http://boards.fool.com/Message.asp?mid=28076140&sort=use......
http://boards.fool.com/Message.asp?mid=28046724&sort=use......
http://boards.fool.com/Message.asp?mid=28031391&sort=use......



http://boards.fool.com/Message.asp?mid=27571446&sort=use......
http://boards.fool.com/Message.asp?mid=27534217&sort=use......


http://boards.fool.com/Message.asp?mid=27865085&sort=use......


http://boards.fool.com/Message.asp?mid=28053419&sort=use......
http://boards.fool.com/Message.asp?mid=28029061&sort=use......
http://boards.fool.com/Message.asp?mid=27907392&sort=use......
http://boards.fool.com/Message.asp?mid=27880765&sort=use......
http://boards.fool.com/Message.asp?mid=27755993


http://boards.fool.com/Message.asp?mid=28191012&sort=use......
http://boards.fool.com/Message.asp?mid=28178645&sort=use......
http://boards.fool.com/Message.asp?mid=28165022&sort=use......
http://boards.fool.com/Message.asp?mid=28164250&sort=use......
http://boards.fool.com/Message.asp?mid=28154443&sort=use......
http://boards.fool.com/Message.asp?mid=28102943&sort=use......
http://boards.fool.com/Message.asp?mid=28087122&sort=use......
http://boards.fool.com/Message.asp?mid=28086981&sort=use......
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No. of Recommendations: 10
On the BMW board, Wendy takes the excellent work by Jack Cade and distills it even further. For the risk adverse seeking income this is a gold mine. This may seem simple, it is not, it may not bring up passions, ok, this makes you wealthy, and she does it regularly.

Cheers
Qazulight


http://boards.fool.com/Message.asp?mid=28295515

Many thanks to Jack Cade for the data on Mr. Goodbuy Dividend Stocks.

Here are the Mr. Goodbuy Dividend Stocks for 2/7/09. I haven't done an analysis for quite a while, but the list has been mostly stable for months.

The Mr. Goodbuy Dividend Stocks mostly have low betas. Most of their prices fluctuate less than the S&P 500 index.


ADP Automatic Data Processing..... Business Services..............
AEP American Electric Power Compan Electric Utilities.............
BMS Bemis Company, Inc............ Containters & Packaging........
BOKF BOK Financial Corporation..... Regional Banks.................
CB Chubb Corporation, The........ Insurance (Property & Casualty)
CBSH Commerce Bancshares, Inc...... Regional Banks.................
CFR Cullen/Frost Bankers, Inc..... Regional Banks.................
CINF Cincinnati Financial Corporati Insurance (Property & Casualty)
CL Colgate-Palmolive Company..... Personal & Household Products..
D Dominion Resources, Inc....... Electric Utilities.............
DUK Duke……………………….. Electric Utilities.............
ED Consolidated Edison, Inc...... Electric Utilities.............
EMR EMERSON ELEC Eng. Syst.
ETR Entergy Corporation........... Electric Utilities.............
EXC Exelon Corp. Electric Utility
GD General Dynamics Corporation.. Aerospace and Defense..........
GSK GlaxoSmithKline plc (ADR)..... Major Drugs....................
ITW Illinois Tool Works Inc....... Misc. Capital Goods............
KMB Kimberly-Clark Corporation.... Paper & Paper Products.........
KO Coca-Cola Company, The........ Beverages (Non-Alcoholic)......
LLTC Linear Tech……………………… Electronics……………….
LMT Lockheed Martin………………….. Defense
MCY Mercury General Corporation... Insurance (Property & Casualty)
MKC McCormick & Company, Incorpora Food Processing................
MMM 3M Company.................... Conglomerates..................
NJR New Jersey Resources Corporati Natural Gas Utilities..........
NOC Northrop Grumman Corporation.. Aerospace and Defense..........
PAYX Paychex, Inc.................. Business Services..............
PEP PepsiCo, Inc.................. Beverages (Non-Alcoholic)......
PG Procter & Gamble Company, The. Personal & Household Products..
PNY Piedmont Natural Gas Company,. Natural Gas Utilities..........
TEF Telefonica Telecom
TRP TransCanada Corporation (USA). Natural Gas Utilities..........
TXN Texas Instruments semiconductors
UTX United Tech Eng. Syst.
VOD Vodafone……………………………….. Telecom……………………………….
XOM Exxon Mobil Corporation....... Oil & Gas Operations...........



Today's 10 Year Treasury Yield is 3.63%. The Mr. Goodbuys stocks with yields that are higher are:



Q M* R BM M*
P Div M Wm Fair
Tick Z Yld S RF RF
CINF 59 6 -2.47 2.2 1.14
MCY 72 6 -1.74 1.93 1.08
TEF 98 6 -1.24 1.5 1.24
DUK 46 5.8 -1.06 1.3 0.98
VOD 76 5.8 -1.23 1.89 1.18
ED 64 5.5 -1.51 1.86 1.09
AEP 50 4.9 -1.82 1.62 0.92
GSK 70 4.9 -1.41 1.54 1.29
D 79 4.8 -2.24 1.89 1.01
EXC 93 4.8 -2.09 1.55 1.65
PNY 79 4.4 -2.36 1.51 0.93
PAYX 76 4.3 -1.7 2.86 1.45
TRP 93 4.2 -2.6 2.35 1.34
KMB 81 4.1 -1.63 1.7 1.19
ETR 93 3.9 -2.56 1.77 1.18
NJR 61 3.7 -2.26 1.52 0.98





Almost all these stocks are at -1 RMS or below. Those that are under -2 RMS are:


Q M* R BM M*
P Div M Wm Fair
Tick Z Yld S RF RF
XOM 99 2.6 -2.88 1.83 1.34
TRP 93 4.2 -2.6 2.35 1.34
ETR 93 3.9 -2.56 1.77 1.18
CBSH 51 2.3 -2.5 1.67 0.91
CINF 59 6 -2.47 2.2 1.14
PNY 79 4.4 -2.36 1.51 0.93
BOKF 58 2.1 -2.27 1.68 1
NJR 61 3.7 -2.26 1.52 0.98
D 79 4.8 -2.24 1.89 1.01
CL 88 2.2 -2.16 2.41 1
EXC 93 4.8 -2.09 1.55 1.65



Those that Morningstar believes are underpriced (M* Fair RF above 1.0) are:


Q M* R BM M*
P Div M Wm Fair
Tick Z Yld S RF RF
EXC 93 4.8 -2.09 1.55 1.65
PAYX 76 4.3 -1.7 2.86 1.45
XOM 99 2.6 -2.88 1.83 1.34
TRP 93 4.2 -2.6 2.35 1.34
GSK 70 4.9 -1.41 1.54 1.29
ADP 92 3.3 -1.5 1.66 1.27
PG 94 2.9 -1.22 1.49 1.26
ITW 86 2.9 -1.93 1.74 1.24
LLTC 92 3.3 -1.61 2.91 1.24
TEF 98 6 -1.24 1.5 1.24
KMB 81 4.1 -1.63 1.7 1.19
ETR 93 3.9 -2.56 1.77 1.18
TXN 92 2 -1.4 2.19 1.18
VOD 76 5.8 -1.23 1.89 1.18
CB 88 2.9 -1.27 1.43 1.17
CINF 59 6 -2.47 2.2 1.14
PEP 97 3 -1.93 2.01 1.14
ED 64 5.5 -1.51 1.86 1.09
MKC 94 2.7 -1.41 1.29 1.09
MCY 72 6 -1.74 1.93 1.08
BMS 96 3.2 -1.42 1.59 1.08
MMM 81 2.6 -1.28 1.42 1.08
LMT 100 3.1 -0.96 1.36 1.07
KO 82 3.1 -1.14 1.92 1.04
D 79 4.8 -2.24 1.89 1.01
BOKF 58 2.1 -2.27 1.68 1
CL 88 2.2 -2.16 2.41 1
EMR 91 2.9 -1.25 1.36 1




There are only 4 stocks that meet all 3 criteria:


Q M* R BM M*
P Div M Wm Fair
Tick Z Yld S RF RF
CINF 59 6 -2.47 2.2 1.14
ETR 93 3.9 -2.56 1.77 1.18
EXC 93 4.8 -2.09 1.55 1.65
TRP 93 4.2 -2.6 2.35 1.34




Here are the charts for the stocks I find most interesting:
http://stockcharts.com/scripts/php/candleglance.php?cinf,etr......

All of them are currently falling.

Barring another significant drop in the overall market, here would be reasonable prices, based on chart fluctuations in 2009.

CINF 24-ish (now at 25.5)
ETR 76-ish (where it is now)
EXC 37-ish (currently an ugly downward trend over many months)
TRP 30-ish (currently in a pretty upward trend over months)
Payx 28 (now at 29)
XOM 63-ish (now at 65 - I think this is a good price)
GSK Good price where it is now
TEF Hard to say -- unstable chart
VOD Where it is now
D Hard to say -- unstable chart

Of all these stocks, I think that CINF, ETR, TRP. PAYX, XOM, GSK and VOD are all good buys at today's price...assuming that the market doesn't break down from here. They don't look like falling knives as much as hitting the bottom of a recent trading range.

Wendy
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No. of Recommendations: 4
Wendy and I both post heavily, for me almost exclusively, over on the Macro Economics (METAR) board. Last year we were both nominated for Feste, and after the votes were counted, she finished with second runner up. It occurred to me then that we may have “split” the METAR vote; anyone voting for me obviously was not able to vote for her.


Are you thinking what I'm thinking, Pinky?
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No. of Recommendations: 0
Are you thinking what I'm thinking, Pinky?

Um... I think so, Brain, but what if the chicken won't wear the nylons?
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No. of Recommendations: 10
I have to second Wendy's nomination for the Feste.

I'm the kind of person who enjoys coming to the Fool and learning and, if possible, sharing with others what I have learned over the years. I like to find one board and make it my home base. That board has to involve some broad aspect of investing, be full of varied investing content, and be civil.

Civility is the most important feature to me in a home base board. While I admit to the occasional foray over to the PA, my personality type is such that I can only take so much of that kind of stuff.....usually about 6 messages .....and then I need to break away.

I was a regular over at the Foolish Collective a number of years ago when we lost our unofficial board monitor (now known as TMF Admiral). Within a year the board had declined into a bickering and intolerant-of-new ideas experience that made it unpleasant for me to experience, so I left it.

When I left, I left the Fool for a while as well, for I believed that the FC was the best-for-me board in Fooldom and thus, there wasn't much left to enjoy here.

The other internet sites given over to investment message boards were no joy to experience either, so I would find myself periodically coming back to the Fool and looking at various boards that I had previously ignored. I happened to discover the METAR board again and see that Mish had gone and that Wendy was trying to take over being the unofficial monitor in an effort to keep things free of politics and civil. It is directly because of her efforts there that I found a new home base on the Fool and, ultimately, that I remain at the Fool.

I'm not given to syncophantic behavior but I am prone to speak my mind when the issue moves me. I saw what happened last year with Wendy and the Feste nomination and, frankly, there parts of that that I think did not cover the Fool with glory. I'm not saying that the Fool was inherently wrong, just that the whole thing was rather bizarre and didn't reflect well.

I think Wendy is long overdue for this small recognition of her big contributions to our community and thus support fully her nomination.

PosFCF
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No. of Recommendations: 7
Oh God, not again.

--JC
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No. of Recommendations: 5
I"m a lurker on the METaR board but have actively enjoyed Wendy's posts over on fixed income and other boards. I was a HUGE fan of Mungofitch last year and happily will vote for WendyBG this year. She follows in the tradition of being data-driven, politics-adverse, and she enjoys all sides of a great, respectful discussion. Wow! Good nomination!

Hockeypop
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No. of Recommendations: 1
Oh God, not again.

Vote for Wendy. Then the annual nomination can stop just as it has with MichaelRead.
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No. of Recommendations: 2
Anything other than a Wendy Feste victory is a fraud!

WENDY!!!
WENDY!!!
WENDY!!!
WENDY!!!
WENDY!!!
WENDY!!!
WENDY!!!
WENDY!!!
WENDY!!!
WENDY!!!
WENDY!!!
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No. of Recommendations: 1
Oh God, not again.

Are you a bowl of petunias?
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No. of Recommendations: 29
Anything other than a Wendy Feste victory is a fraud!

Oh, I don't know about that. She did borrow a lot of material from the other candidate, New York Times.

PSU
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