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...what a joke. CDMA is obviously the greatest thing right now, but how many companies are looking at those royalties and saying " boy we could really spend a lot on R&D and come out far ahead if we develop something better. IT will be a long time B$ that happens, but a long time in the tech world is a couple of years.

Wrong.

Read the Gorilla Game and try this analysis again. Coming up with 'the next best thing' is:

1) Not nearly as easy as ramping up R&D to do so
2) Not enough to begin with. It's going to take a complete discontinuous innovation to oust CDMA. Inventing something 5 or 10% better will not coax wireless companies to completely change their infrastructure for your 'next best thing.' This is not Pepsi-One vs. Coke. An entire industry and value chain must change for a gorilla standard to be set.

An earlier post touted GSM as a rule maker to CDMA. Not quite. Rule makers don't lose market share day after day. Only the European block countries seem to be hanging on to a GSM future and even they are beginning to waver.

BTW Nokia makes CDMA phones, not just GSM. Why? Far superior voice quality and better ability to move data. If all we wanted out of digital phones for the next 10 years was the ability to call the babysitter to check on the kids, GSM would be just fine. But we want much more. GSM cannot deliver the goods. CDMA does. The wireless world is changing.

GSM is no rule maker. I don't care if you think QCOM is a Rule Maker or not. It sure is a Gorilla.

disclosure - I hold NOK and QCOM.

Dan
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