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No. of Recommendations: 2
What are the most likely sources of carry income for Apollo near term? The market is at an all time high, and one would think that's the best environment for realizations, but APO hasn't really rallied to reflect that. ADT isn't the answer. And I doubt any future Apollo-backed IPO that is loaded with debt and a huge APO overhang will do much better. So where will carry come from?

Thanks for the question. The best answer is sell the stock, you don't have confidence in the company.

Alternative responses include a) re-assessing the odds of some of the assumptions you've made given APO's track record, b) APO successfully using other realization channels (sell whole companies to strategic buyers or other investment firms) or using other creative means to sell over time (SPACS - Chuck E. Cheese), c) generating carry from credit and real estate (small potatoes in comparison).

Basically, Apollo has a PE value approach that has generally worked well over a period of decades. If you think this approach will not work in the future, or if you think carry income in the near-term is crucial to the investment thesis, then the good news is that the market is open from 9:30 to 4:00 PM Eastern time. Redeploy your capital into something better.

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