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Everyone is expecting value to return and growth to suffer due to vaccine. So what are your deep value plays?
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No. of Recommendations: 3
Everyone is expecting value to return and growth to suffer due to vaccine. So what are your deep value plays?

Everyone but one or two of us. Einstein called compound interest one of the strongest forces of the universe. It applies to investing. Say you have two companies in the same business that are practically identical twins with only one difference. One is growing and the other is not. They are worth the same today but next year the one that grows is worth more and the year after that even more.

Which one should one buy?

Denny Schlesinger
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No. of Recommendations: 3
Sorry, not to be rude, but not interested in philosophical discussions. Just looking for some ideas, screens and industries.

BTW, a value play doesn't mean it has no growth.
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If you watch CNBC, I think they would list stocks like Caterpillar, Dow Chemical, Honeywell, and if you are venturesome oil companies like Exxon.

The growth stocks especially tech stocks are thought to be over valued for now, but many say still have strong earnings potential.

The Covid plays are iffy as people worry how long the good times will last. Maybe another year.

The vaccine stocks in my view are risky because only one or two will lead the market long term. Others will do well for a year or so while everyone is getting treated but fall by the wayside. Much depends on what develops. How long the immunity lasts. How quickly the virus mutates. Possible side effects that show up. Easier treatments. One shot. Higher temp stability. Much yet to be learned. Might take years to work it all out.
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No. of Recommendations: 4
Ok, I'll play.

HC2 Holdings (HCHC) - small company with multiple business lines. Completing a backstop offering to provide new capital and some additional liquidity.

Teekay Tankers (TNK) - Tanker company that has done a great job paying down debt and improving their liquidity. TNK management seem to have forgotten one major stakeholder group- the TNK shareholder. H1 2020 was a great six months for the tanker sector. But, no TNK dividend. During the Q2 earnings call TNK mgmt did indicate they would not pay a dividend in 2020. Shares have slid to the $10/sh level. If no dividend payout, how about a share buyback? While the major component of asset value is the quickly depreciating older vessels, my rough estimate of NAV is around $23/sh.

Atlantica Sustainable Infrastructure (AY) - Short-term, probably not much price movement. But, longer term, AY has room to grow and expand. With utility assets in renewable energy, less liability issues than other utility companies (coal, nuclear).


Bonus idea (no position currently)
GrafTech Intl (EAF)- Would probably restart a position in EAF if it retreats about 10%. Business took a hit due to Covid-19 concerns. EAF management has been shareholder friendly in the recent past - regular dividend, share buybacks, and even, a special dividend. Post Covid-19, dividend slashed to 1c/sh.
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No. of Recommendations: 8
Sorry, not to be rude, but not interested in philosophical discussions.

Neither a heartfelt opinion nor areas of interest are ever rude.


Just looking for some ideas, screens and industries.

I hope I can help! The S&P 500 is supposed to be the "market wide" index while the NASDAQ index is referred to as "tech heavy." While it's not a perfect comparison I associate the S&P 500 with value and NASDAQ with growth. I have been comparing the two indexes for decades. The story does not change much except it's a good idea to avoid NASDAQ when it gets too frothy.

https://softwaretimes.com/pics/spx-11-15-2020.gif

There are many ways to play it. Buy the NASDAQ index. Buy high tech ETFs. Pick good individual high tech stocks.

I've been following this board for over a decade. lekitkat used to post fantastic value reports that earned her a lot of praise and prizes. Then one day she posted what might be called the value investors lament. She complained that all that research was not producing market beating results and eventually she gave up on her Value Hounds board.

The justification for my philosophical discussion is that I try to get to the bottom of why some methods work better than others. The most valuable companies on the marker currently are high techs. Earlier it was fossil fuels and finance. Every era has it's darlings which usually are the ones producing the greatest wealth. For example Apple is cash cow but no longer as fast a grower as startups like Zoom or Teladoc.

https://softwaretimes.com/pics/tdoc-11-15-2020.gif

Denny Schlesinger
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No. of Recommendations: 5
Here are some of my value picks. They are not tied to vaccine per se, but return to normal business environment will help them all. They were all much better values before the Pfizer vaccine announcement, and some like CVS and MCK have jumped 20%+. So I will wait for another pull-back before buying more.

BRK.B
BAM
CVS
MCK
INTC
TD
RY
SVNLY

I made the Canadian and Swedish banks purchases are after deciding to dump my US bank holdings, which overlapped with BRK.B holdings. These 3 banks are some of the best run banks in the world over a century, even if they are not the biggest bargains on a PB or PTB criteria. I opted for safety, global diversification and strong dividend track record over other value criteria.
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No. of Recommendations: 0
The Covid plays are iffy as people worry how long the good times will last.

What are examples of 'Covid plays' to you? Are these Saul stocks, something similar, or something broader in character?

Thanks,
Pete
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No. of Recommendations: 2
Quite a few strategies have evolved related to Covid-19 and work from home, stay at home that follows. To list a few--

Vaccine companies. Pfizer, Moderna, Merck, and a half dozen more
Covid testing companies. Abbot is best known
Lab supply houses. Thermofisher
Lab testing services. Quest, Lab Corp

Computers: Apple, Microsoft, etc, etc. Zoom. People are upgrading their computer equipment for home use and often by more users.

Shop from home: Amazon, Walmart, delivery services.

Home activities: Home Depot, Lowes, Menards, Sherwin Williams, PPG, Masco

And lots more. Take your pick.

Home exercises: Pelleton
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No. of Recommendations: 1
> Home activities: Home Depot, Lowes, Menards, Sherwin Williams, PPG, Masco

Is there a possibility to invest in Menards for common folk? I'd love to, but I can't find any public listng.
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No. of Recommendations: 1
Thanks for the ideas.

BRK.B - Has some options
BAM - Never liked
CVS - I already own it; I wanted to double the position around $55, missed it because my limit didn't hit it and didn't feel like chasing it; Regret that very much;
MCK - Never liked it
INTC - own it, regret not trimming, regret more that I sold AMD for paltry gains
TD - OWN Citi, WFC, BAC
RY - Same as above
SVNLY - Same as above

On banks, I would stick with Citi, a name I know for few years now. I see a clear pathway for the stock to trade at TBV, resulting in at least 50% gain from here in few years.
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Lab supply houses. Thermofisher
Lab testing services. Quest, Lab Corp


My son begged me to buy Thermofisher @$200, @$300, don't know why I never listed to him :(

I was actively looking at DGX (quest) and lost interest. I need to revisit.
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Teekay Tankers

While Trump may leave office, I think US-China relations are not going back to pre-2016. There is a global supply chain disruption is coming. How much manufacturing will move out of China and to where is unclear, but I think it is coming.

I don't want to touch anything that may have secular challenges.
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No. of Recommendations: 2
AMZN announced their online pharmacy store today and promptly the drug store stocks have taken a hit including CVS. Some retailers like COST, WMT have weathered Amazon onslaught very well and others not so much. Interesting times..
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We are apparently using a similar screen. Recent purchases in the past quarter include INTC, ALL, AYI, CVS, JLL, MCK, MSM, MTB, RTX, TD, TU, and WBA.

PP
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No. of Recommendations: 3
My deep value plays are well-diversified international stock funds, especially Japan and emerging markets. US stocks are the most expensive in the world. The US dollar is overvalued against nearly all currencies. Not only that, other countries (especially Asian countries) are faring far better in this pandemic.

My top picks are DFJ, MOTI, DGRE, DGS, IQIN, GWX, and FNDC.
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No. of Recommendations: 1
TGT, WMT and COST are my value plays. Possibly AAPL. Though currently I'm playing value through VTV and VBR (at 20% of portfolio). I'm looking to increase my value position to 30% within a week at the expense of my growth allocation.

Regarding INTC, I would not touch them yet. There is a reason why they are plunging. A big part of that is they are lagging on process technology. That takes time and cubic feet of money to fix.
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No. of Recommendations: 3
TGT, WMT and COST are my value plays. Possibly AAPL.

Based on the valuations none of these qualify as value plays.
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TGT, WMT and COST are my value plays.

COST is something I bought after Amazon's purchase of whole foods and exited way too early. On the other hand, TGT, which I own, made a monster move, I purchased around $80 mid 2019. Of course the pandemic helped the share price acceleration, but their digital play is now reflected in the price.
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