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They short and what happens?

It drops a pretty significant amount? What does the Fool guys know? I have alot invested in this Sirius and I truely think they will come out on top....eventually. The Fool states they cannot give us this info for free...ok....I will pay for it. I have to much riding on this one. Share the info with the fellow follys!

Is Feb 14th not going to happen....Have they got the insight? Have more chip probs been discovered and no public release of this news? Have Chrysler and Ford pushed back on their product line roll out?

I feel somewhat helpless.

I am confident that my Foolish ways of purchasing stocks will pull me through. SIRI was more of a gamble then a FOOLISH purchase.

Good Luck to the insiders!

SB

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No. of Recommendations: 1
SB,

We don't have any knowledge that isn't public -- so we do not know anything about February 14 or the chipset situation. We only know what you know or what is publicly available.

Our main concern is actually more of a longer-term concern. Look at XM's operating costs today. They're quite large. Even a few million subscribers will not overwhelm operating costs enough to make operations profitable. (As we know. They need 4 million at least.)

Now when we looked at technology adoption rates for Internet, broadband Internet, cable TV, satellite TV, CD players, VHS and so forth, we realized that satellite radio would need to top ALL of them in order for both companies to reach 4 million subs before 2005. Even for one company to reach 4 million in less than three years would be a record. Meanwhile, the costs are likely to be higher than projected, and even if they're not, they're continually high, and debt is significant.

We view the business as very vulnerable (longer term) because it is cost heavy and getting enough people to buy radios and pay for service is going to be an expensive challenge, we believe. Meanwhile, the clock is ticking.

We hope it works out though. We don't wish any company -- someone's dream -- to fail. But in the end money -- profits -- is what makes it work or not. Sirius even more than XM now is going to fight an uphill battle for enough subscribers in time.

Foolishly,

Jeff

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Thanks for the response Jeff. You explained it quite well, allowing me to better understand the Fool's position.

Only 1 other question.....

Was it just a rumor then about there being some info out there that you based your decision off of, that you could not divuldge for free?

After your explanation I am left to believe that what was stated must just be a rumor.

Once again, thanks for the insight and I stand to watch and learn! 8-)

SB
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Was it just a rumor then about there being some info out there that you based your decision off of, that you could not divuldge for free?

I'm not Jeff, but I think I can answer this question anyhow.... =)

The Motley Fool has no special information that isn't available to the general public at large.

However, they do have this thing called the Motley Fool Select which has the fruits of their research organized into something a little more coherent than you'd find floating around in the general public, and subscribing to this does cost money. I haven't seen the latest issue, but it seems they wrote about sattelite radio, Sirius, or some combination of the two. While all facts in the article are of public domain, they've done a lot of legwork and intrepretation of the facts you won't find anywhere else. And that's what you'd be paying for.

I subscribed to the Motley Fool Select last year and thought it very worth while, but due to my currently unemployed status and the fact that I'll probably be out of the country for much of this year, I chose not to resubscribe. Maybe after all my travels are done and I'm ready to settle down with a job again I'll resubscribe.

How'd I do answering the question, Jeff? =)

-- Ryan
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Ryan (Somewhere),

You did wonderfully at answering the question. Thank you! Perfect.

I hope that explains things, SB, and explains where that rumor probably originated.

We aren't harboring any information that isn't publicly available, but our research on the topic is in that issue of Motley Fool Select, which is a subscription product (or single issues sell too).

Foolishly,

Jeff

P.S. Ryan, enjoy your travels when you take them!
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