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No. of Recommendations: 3
....asks an article in the Atlantic, noting the very real possibility that Trump could run a successful bid for a second term in 2024:

Could he win? Of course he could. It is unlikely—though not impossible!—that the current air of chaos and free fall around the Biden administration will continue for the next three years. (To see another example of a four-year train wreck, you’ve got to go all the way back to … the last president.) Biden also retains certain structural advantages. Incumbents have a built-in edge, and although the future course of the pandemic is unpredictable, the economy seems likely to improve, if slowly.

But the president’s approval rating has slipped definitively underwater, and the intensely polarized environment makes it hard for him to claw back favor once lost. Most worryingly for Democrats, Biden has lost favor with independent voters. Incumbency doesn’t seem to be quite the boost it once was; both Trump and Barack Obama saw their vote share slip as they ran for second terms. Besides, given the tight margins in several states, Trump wouldn’t need to gain much on Biden to beat him in a rematch.


https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2021/10/trump-winn...

Worse yet, a 'fair and square' Trump win would probably start off with the Republicans holding both chambers of Congress - the Senate map in 2024 is brutal for Democrats, and any political environment that has Trump winning an election is likely to result in a GOP House.

Albaby
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No. of Recommendations: 13
I'm probably complain about it on the internet. But I very much doubt I'll attack the capital building.
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No. of Recommendations: 5
It's possible. It is a disaster to even contemplate. Either way, if Trump runs he WILL cheat. It is what he does. So no, it will never be fair and square when Trump is involved.

If he did win, regardless of how, we are all in deep trouble. The US is resilient, but I'm sure it would survive that.

My feeling is that enough people on both sides have already decided that once with Trump is enough. There are enough GOPers that publicly align with Trump, but privately want him gone... I sincerely hope so. If not, we deserve what he will do to the country.
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No. of Recommendations: 2
If Trump returns to power--as you say likely with GOP House and Senate support--it will be a disaster. It would almost inevitably lead to some kind of Constitutional crisis where American democracy would be put to the ultimate test. And I'm not sure democracy would win.

The only saving grace is that Trump looks like an easy win in the GOP primary, but in a general election, not so much. No matter how badly things are going under Biden, Democrats tend to win when their voters show up. The one thing that will motivate Democrats in 2024 is keeping Trump out of office. Beyond the Democrats, a large % of independents and a not insignificant T of Republicans never want to see Trump as President again.

3 years is a long time in politics, but I just don't think many people are going to forget how awful Trump was as President, culminating in January 6th (which has enough footage for a lifetime of campaign ads against Trump).
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3 years is a long time in politics, but I just don't think many people are going to forget how awful Trump was as President, culminating in January 6th (which has enough footage for a lifetime of campaign ads against Trump).

You never know. It's amazing how things that we think will be enormously relevant in a campaign a few years from now end up being completely irrelevant when the campaign is run. Exhibit "A" is the late 2019 impeachment of Trump. I'm sure I'm not alone in thinking that would have been a huge part of the Democrats' 2020 campaign against DJT - but it ended up being a relatively minor factor. Biden ended up mostly focusing on the pandemic, the economy, social security, and the need for unity/competence - with very little discussion of Trump's Russia imbroglio or the impeachment that it led to.

Sadly, I don't think that Trump's anti-democratic actions generally, or January 6th specifically, are anything that most voters care much about. It's not something that's high on their priorities. It certainly should be something voters care about - and it's certainly something that liberal college-educated voters are going to care about - but that doesn't mean they actually will. I think that Trump's constant re-litigation of the 2020 election will hurt him with a lot of voters, but not for the reason that it should. He will get hurt not because voters find his rejection of an election disqualifying as a rejection of democratic norms, but instead because they just don't care about arguing over 2020 any more.

The thing that was most surprising to me in the various David Schor thinkpieces that have been making the rounds these days was this:

People who paid close attention to the 2016 presidential campaign probably remember the most-watched Democratic campaign commercial from the cycle, Hillary Clinton’s “Mirrors” ad, which featured images of young women gazing at themselves in mirrors intercut with footage of Donald Trump making disparaging comments about women. It was powerful stuff — at least among the young liberals on Clinton’s staff.

The “Mirrors” ad featured prominently in a series of experiments that Shor did with Civis to evaluate the effect of various Democratic campaign commercials on voters’ decisions. The findings of the experiments were not encouraging. For one, they found that a full 20 percent of the ads — including “Mirrors” — made viewers more likely to vote for Republicans than people who hadn’t seen the same ads. And after his team started polling members of Civis’s staff, they made an even more troubling discovery. On average, the more that the Civis staff liked an ad, the worse it did with the general public.


https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2021/10/09/david-shor...

Just because a campaign message will be attractive to college-educated liberals - or even if the message is fundamentally inarguably correct - doesn't mean that it will actually help you in an election. DJT is a horrible misogynist, but voters apparently didn't find being reminded of that as something that would lead them to vote for Clinton. DJT's efforts to cling to power after losing the election were horrible. That doesn't mean they'll get people - even people who agree they were horrible - to be more likely to vote for Biden.

Albaby
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3 years is a long time in politics, but I just don't think many people are going to forget how awful Trump was as President, culminating in January 6th (which has enough footage for a lifetime of campaign ads against Trump).

He doesn't need many people to forget. Just a few thousand located in the right states.
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He doesn't need many people to forget. Just a few thousand located in the right states.

I think the bright side is, the people who remember and care how bad he was and is are more likely to survive to 2024.

Like you said, just a few thousand in the right states.
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No. of Recommendations: 0
It will be the first time he did anything fair and square.
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... and define fair and square.
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They'll be selling ice skates in Hell.

Ken
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No. of Recommendations: 9
What if Trump Wins Fair and Square?

Well, that'll be the fall of the American Republic most likely. Even with a different (but trumpy) GOP president, as long as they have a 4+ majority in the Senate, I'd give it better than even odds that the GOP takes steps to ensure through "voting reform" that the Democrats can never hold power at the federal level again.
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