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What US common stocks would we buy that will outrun Berkshire and/or the S&P500 to December 31?
Would love to hear Jim's ideas.


They probably aren't stocks you'd want to buy.

This isn't a big bad bear, but let's say for a moment it had been, and today was the bottom.
In that case, it's almost certain that the things that would be about to soar the most will be the junk that fell the most.
I track a lot of quant screens, and the ones that do best in such situations are invariably those intended as short screens.
They generally seek the worst possible companies with the worst possible price falls.
But, a quick short hand rule after a really big fall is simply to buy what has fallen most.
In spring 2009 you wanted to be buying banks hand over fist.
Hmmm...
How about Tupperware (TUP)? 90% off its 52 week high and one week return of -51%.
Not a "widows and orphans" kind of stock, but there is a prima facie case for a margin of safety: today's price roughly matches next year's consensus earnings per share.
At that level, maybe even an accounting probe and a need for credit relief at a slowly dying business is just par for the course.
Others thrown up by such a screening process. (emphasis on throwing up)
At Home Group (HOME $5.00). They're the one that has fallen the most but is apparently making a profit at the moment.
Tailored Brands (TLRD $3.27), same idea, but actually apparently cheap on current earnings, 76% off its high, one week -23%. Mens Wearhouse and other clothes chains.

Conversely, if you think the market will continue sliding much of the year, you'd probably want something like Berkshire which will fall more slowly because of its perceived security or steadiness of earnings.
If you could find something like Berkshire.

One stock I think "should" rise a lot, but may not if recent history is a guide, is Brookfield Property (BPY) at $16.32.
Currently at 55% of book value and 7.97% dividend.
I own this. Price wise it has been much like owning a lump of clay. Well, a lump which pays a dividend.

Jim
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