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No. of Recommendations: 1
When calculating the moving average from the FRED unemployment data...

Oh, sorry, didn't see this. I do not use the unemployment data. First off, it is too vulnerable to manipulation (read: lies) for political reasons.
Second off, just the IPG and RRSG are good enough. Including employment does not add any value.

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From the paper (almost at the end):
Real retail sales growth and industrial production growth represent two diverse, independently reliable indicators of the health of the two fundamental segments of the overall economy: consumption and production. The best result comes when they are put together, in combination.
...
...a recessionary indication from either metric turns the strategy’s timing function on. Otherwise, the timing function is off, and the strategy stays long


Later on:
the individual timing performance of the growth signals is quite weak. ... [This] doesn’t hurt the result for GTT, however, because they are being used as mere overlays for a more price-cognizant trend-following
approach. GTT respects price and re-enters the market whenever the trend goes positive, no matter what the growth signals happen to be saying.
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