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When calculating the moving average from the FRED unemployment data...

Oh, sorry, didn't see this. I do not use the unemployment data.

I do track the unemployment data, along with the other two indicators. Here is the original description of the method, which calls for comparing the current unemployment rate to the 12-month SMA:

When I do the calculation I include the current month as one of the 12 months. I don't think there's anything in the paper that defines the method precisely, nor that there is any logical reason to include or exclude the current month; nor, indeed, that the choice would make a meaningful difference in practice.

But I am open to persuasion, obviously.

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