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When I want to fly to California, I would much prefer to sprout wings and take off myself, with a possible stopover in Denver. It would certainly be cheaper than paying for airline tickets, and I would not have to wait in line for the security check.

Making money consistently in a buy and hold of anything is just about as realistic.

Over the last 5 years, that index fund, with distributions reinvested, has lost 2%. A money maarket fund has made 17.2%. Neither return is inspiring.

If you had used TimingCube


to time the fund, and moved to a money market during the sell periods, you would have more than doubled your money in that fund. (TimingCube has not been "live" for 5 years, but I have their "pre-live" results from an earlier backtest.)

In order to achieve these results you would have had to switch between a money market fund and the index fund a total of 15 times. There are small losses for some of the trades. TimingCube costs $299.95/year. I have other timing systems which are free, although they require you to buy some software.

But if you think that checking a website once a day and actually trading about 3 times per year is too much truoble, then go with buy and hold.
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