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mastercard

using VL numbers
at 174 trades for 33.1x
at 13.5% x the 2018 estimate you get $5.96 but we'll round to $6.00
so 29x the 19 estimate

you know the drill
high return on capital
double digit EPS Growth
buybacks (small dividend but irrelevant)

never sell?
trim?
appropriate position sizing? would you buy it here?

thoughts welcome
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No. of Recommendations: 2
I see a fwd PE of 24.5x, so not selling it. What a huge runway they have.

top 5 position for me.

JPM target 192. $6-$6.1 is the 2018 estimate. With the tax benefit they could do $7.1 for 2019.
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thx for post - that is helpful

big diff - vl is at 5.25 with 22% tax rate
they used 4.58, the NG reported number
course, looking at my notes MA predicted low teens, mid 20 CAGR on EPS (below - direct note)
(i don't try to derive these things myself 90% of the time)
VL assumed 15% EPS growth for 18, 13.5% beyond that
like you numbers better


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10. So overall, with these adjustments, estimates 2018 YoverY growth net revenue would grow at mid-teens rate and OpEx would grow low-double digits both on currency-neutral basis and excluding special items.

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thanks naj
I did this as a non-eps review
i've got the estimates for this one from others in my notes
but had gotten in the habit of just printing a VL sheet
and only reading my conclusion, not the notes below
something to watch for
course, i wouldn't have normally expected VL to be this off....but that's my problem now
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MA&V together 5% allocation. I consider them duopoly and should be left alone in the portfolio. The last few years buyback makes me wonder, the stocks are going to be trading at higher multiples compared to historic level simply because of demand and supply (i.e., there are not enough shares outstanding) and some good companies are going to be enjoying multiple expansions or expanded multiples.

As an individual investor, some positions I am not going to worry whether they are performing or not, viz-a-viz someone who has to constantly beat the indexes, so YMMV.
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MStar has fwd PE of 28.5x fwiw. 25x v 28x probably doesn't change anyone's conclusion although it could.

Cash is slowly going away...
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thx for comment

if it matters, I've been around a while (so most clients have 10 year histories with a fair chunk 15-20 years), and prob. have a short term to go, and my account is the model - i would very much like to beat the indexes each quarter and year, but I manage my portfolio the way I manage it to please me first and foremost
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Both MA & V are up nicely today after the earnings.
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