mastercardusing VL numbersat 174 trades for 33.1xat 13.5% x the 2018 estimate you get $5.96 but we'll round to $6.00so 29x the 19 estimateyou know the drillhigh return on capitaldouble digit EPS Growthbuybacks (small dividend but irrelevant)never sell?trim?appropriate position sizing? would you buy it here?thoughts welcome
I see a fwd PE of 24.5x, so not selling it. What a huge runway they have.top 5 position for me. JPM target 192. $6-$6.1 is the 2018 estimate. With the tax benefit they could do $7.1 for 2019.
thx for post - that is helpfulbig diff - vl is at 5.25 with 22% tax ratethey used 4.58, the NG reported numbercourse, looking at my notes MA predicted low teens, mid 20 CAGR on EPS (below - direct note)(i don't try to derive these things myself 90% of the time)VL assumed 15% EPS growth for 18, 13.5% beyond thatlike you numbers better --10. So overall, with these adjustments, estimates 2018 YoverY growth net revenue would grow at mid-teens rate and OpEx would grow low-double digits both on currency-neutral basis and excluding special items.--thanks najI did this as a non-eps reviewi've got the estimates for this one from others in my notesbut had gotten in the habit of just printing a VL sheetand only reading my conclusion, not the notes below something to watch for course, i wouldn't have normally expected VL to be this off....but that's my problem now
MA&V together 5% allocation. I consider them duopoly and should be left alone in the portfolio. The last few years buyback makes me wonder, the stocks are going to be trading at higher multiples compared to historic level simply because of demand and supply (i.e., there are not enough shares outstanding) and some good companies are going to be enjoying multiple expansions or expanded multiples. As an individual investor, some positions I am not going to worry whether they are performing or not, viz-a-viz someone who has to constantly beat the indexes, so YMMV.
MStar has fwd PE of 28.5x fwiw. 25x v 28x probably doesn't change anyone's conclusion although it could. Cash is slowly going away...
thx for commentif it matters, I've been around a while (so most clients have 10 year histories with a fair chunk 15-20 years), and prob. have a short term to go, and my account is the model - i would very much like to beat the indexes each quarter and year, but I manage my portfolio the way I manage it to please me first and foremost
Both MA & V are up nicely today after the earnings.
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