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With the US market crashing it makes me wonder how much further this market is going to be dragged down. It's a strange investing mentality that has the Oz economy ticking along nicely, all the right financial indicators present, companies making money and yet the market continues to fall.
Where do we go from here to the years end ?? - anyone like to predict ??
Regards
Harmy
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Saw an interesting comment on the box this morning.
Apparently it "really is different this time".

The comment was that this is the first time that the Dow/ASX/market (didn't quite catch which) has receded in the first year of an economic recovery.
Can't vouch for the accuracy of the statement and personally I don't really think it means much. Just a bit of trivia I suppose.

regards
Barcoo
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The comment was that this is the first time that the Dow/ASX/market (didn't quite catch which) has receded in the first year of an economic recovery.

Barcoo
I think the market normally anticipates the economy and moves ahead of it - either up or down.
I was looking at CNBC yesterday and the amount of red showing in all the worlds tickers was incredible. The whole world is having a shakeout.
Regards
Harmy
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No offence Harmy to you whatsoever- but gee you don't have to say much to get a rec. Just disagree with me apparently.

I think the market normally anticipates the economy and moves ahead of it - either up or down.
Yes. This is a commonly held belief. But apparently it's not set in concrete.

I was looking at CNBC yesterday and the amount of red showing in all the worlds tickers was incredible. The whole world is having a shakeout.

Yes. Great isn't it. Hope it continues. I love half price sales.

regards
Barcoo
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Yes. Great isn't it. Hope it continues. I love half price sales.

Barcoo
Dunno who keeps reccing my posts - must be a ghost !!
I'm still about 20% cash - sold two today - they kept falling more than I could take. Also bought more coal - MCC and AUO - prices really rock bottom for these two. I know you don't like coal but you should read the analysts reports, especially for AUO.
Down about 8% in my port - not much but when you translate it to a cash figure it's more than I like.
I'm not sure about the upcoming rally in the third quarter - we may get flattened a lot more yet and it will take more than a late rally to bring the prices back up to what they were at the beginning of the year.
I'm taking a longer term view - two to three years is my time horizon and I think that by then things will have sorted themselves out.
Regards
Harmy


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Yes. Great isn't it. Hope it continues. I love half price sales.

Barcoo
I meant to comment on this. Half price sales are what we look for but this pre-supposes that the price will go back up again to the original figure. Sometimes they don't !!
Regards
Harmy

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Have another rec'

The Ghost <grin>
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Half price sales are what we look for but this pre-supposes that the price will go back up again to the original figure.

Harmy
This is where fundamental analysis comes in. Isn't it?
As I have said before, the price data will always eventually follow the earnings figures.
Actually I think Ben Graham said it best, "In the short term the market is a voting machine, and in the long term it is a weighing machine."

If you always remember this then the market becomes pretty basic.

Sometimes they don't !!
Yeh I've had some of those. Luckily I sold most of them at a profit but watching them taught me a lot - the difference between speculating and investing for a start.

regards
Barcoo
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The Ghost <grin>

Jon
It's you is it <ggg> !!

Have just re-read your e - Vincents eh !! - I envy you !! You know I can remember going to Pride and Sharks in Camberwell Rd about 1956 and there was a line of Vincents for sale around the 185 pound mark. Black Shadows mainly with a sprinkling of White Lightnings (I think they were called that - they had white metal bearings). Seems incredible today but no-one wanted to buy them.
The first bike I ever owned was an Excelsior 197cc - I paid 25 pounds for it and I've still got the receipt. I went to a show of restored bikes a few months ago and I couldn't believe it - there was an Excelsior just like mine. Another bike I saw was a restored Douglas Dragonfly - they sold for around 200 pounds new before the firm went under - and I always wanted one.
Another bike was a Rudge Ulster vintage around 1936 - my father owned one and until that point I'd never seen one - girder forks, solid rear end. My father said it was the fastest bike on the road and could do 80mph two up. I can just imagine my mother hanging on like grim death - it must have frightened the life out of her.
Been into bikes for years - Enfield, Jawa, Matchy, Beezas, AJS - had 'em all at one time. Still thinking of buying and restoring a BMW but haven't got around to it yet.
Just thought of that coal mining village in Yorkshire I used to go to - a place called Counden (think that's how you spell it).
I've still got photos of me and my Enfield Bullet on the North Yorkshire Moors - Kirby Moorside, Pickering, Wheedale, Whitby.
Ah Jon !! - nostalgia washes over me - where have the years gone ??
Regards
Harmy
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Actually I think Ben Graham said it best, "In the short term the market is a voting machine, and in the long term it is a weighing machine."

Barcoo
You're right of course !! I think the market right now is in a voting phase - LOL !!
Watching the market and the shares I have right now tells me just how much sentiment there is in the average investors make-up.
Every one of my companies has double digit growth, and all top line fundamentals and yet the prices are falling steadily.
Hard to understand why this should so until you take into account the lemming syndrome.

I meant to provide a link to Austral Coal and one of the analysts reports. There are three - two quite recent but quite limited in what they say and an earlier one dated November 2001 - it's quite a big file but well worth the read.
Here it is : http://www.austcoal.com.au/html/fin.html

When you're in click on the Wilson HTM report.

Regards
Harmy



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Hi Harmy

Hey mate!........don't get me started on classic bikes on this Australia board or I will certainly get shunted off into the land of Off Topics.

Ah Jon !! - nostalgia washes over me - where have the years gone ??

You should welcome all those years and adventures that have passed, and never forget that........ these are the good old days right now, if you want them to be. <grin>

Now talking about White Lightnings.............

Jon
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To answer your original question as to where the market may be heading...

http://www.paritech.com.au/traders-room/pco/default.asp?myState=redraw&symbol=xto&PriceIndicator=expMA&time=All&VolumeIndicator=none&freq=1wk¶m1=200¶m2=1000&PriceDisplay=candle&drawButton=Chart

Just use the Guest Login.

It kind of gives you a view from a few paces back!
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It kind of gives you a view from a few paces back!

Yep.
Dunno bout those MA lines , 200 & 100 on a weekly chart aint ever gone give you much of a signal, but thats JMO.

Most notable is that this recent fall has broken the long term up trend line.

Death to blue chips, says Mr Market.

Interesting this link talking about the same time frame but on the S&P,

Since January of 1995, dollar cost averaging as shown above would have resulted in profits of $3485 of a total investment of $45,000. Only 7.7% over the course of seven-and-a-half years. Since January of 1996, the same strategy would have resulted in a loss a $1450 versus a total investment of $39,000. Since January of 1997, the same strategy would have resulted in a staggering loss of $4278 against a total investment of $33,000.

Now this is how most the public ours & thiers invest in stocks most punters aint like us they are in stocks via super.

http://www.cross-currents.net/weekly.htm

This is also good,

http://www.cross-currents.net/charts.htm

Shorter term we rally(esp tech & oil) no problem , longer term it aint looking good(esp blue chips).


JR



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Incidentally, the second trend is for 1000 wks, not 100, though I can see how you made the mistake as the dialogue box below the chart is not wide enough to show all the characters. The value is shown in the link address though: "m2=1000"

I did not choose the trend lines to determine any signals - I simply wanted to illustrate some long-term views such as 4 yr and 20 year trends (200 wks and 1000 wks) when most of us are currently preoccupied with trends less than 30 days! And those short term trends look sad!!

The long term trends kind of cheer me up and I thought I would share it with the board.
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The long term trends kind of cheer me up and I thought I would share it with the board.

Well thats interesting if anything can be determined from that chart it wouldn't be positive long term rather it's positive short term.

That former support now res starting at 2550 will take some beating & then a hell of a lot more res all the way up to the all time highs a lot of work to do.

I did not choose the trend lines to determine any signals - I simply wanted to illustrate some long-term views such as 4 yr and 20 year trends (200 wks and 1000 wks) when most of us are currently preoccupied with trends less than 30 days! And those short term trends look sad!!

Look your chart was a 7 year period I'd suggest to you that to use such long term indicators over such a short time frame esp the 1000 is of little if any use.But its up to you.

The short term trends are oversold & edging up, the intermediate trend is down & the long term uptrend is underthreat & in fact has been broken which is something worth noting.

JR

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Further to my comparison of longer term views such as 4 yr and 20 yr trends rather than worrying overly much on recent short term disasters, I note there is an article in "Money manager" supplement in the July 31 Sydney Morning Herald by Barbara Drury, stating:

"Using Andex charts of rolling 10-year periods taken every month from January 1950, Lipman says, the best decade for shares was that ending September 1987, when returns avaraged 28.8% a year. The worst recorded was to the end of September 1974, with 2.9%

Looking at 30-year rolling returns, the best average return was 16.2% a year for the period ended September 1987, while the worst was 11.9 % for the 30 years to August 1998."

My comment on all of this is it is valid (and somewhat cheerier) to compare 4 yr, 10 yr, 20 yr and 30 yr trends with 30 day, 60 day and 90 day trends! I know the chart I linked to only went for 7 years, but I was just using someone else's chart and that was ALL DATA available. The trend lines were spot on. Another link that shows a bit more data (12 years, but still not 30+) is http://www.incrediblecharts.com.au/trading_diary_archives/2002-07-22.htm

Later in the article Barbara Drury points out, "Although share prices look set for a prolonged period of below-average returns, investors hsould remeber that the total return from shares comes from a combination of long-term capital appreciation and dividends." and "Unlike most fixed incomes, dividends paid by companies with reliable earnings should increase over time. Dividend income also has tax advantages over fixed-income investments due to franking."

Incidentally, I did look up Andex, but, not being a subscriber, could not access any charts to link you to. Their webpage is http://www.andex.com.au/AndexChart.html

I'll get out of your way now...
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My comment on all of this is it is valid (and somewhat cheerier) to compare 4 yr, 10 yr, 20 yr and 30 yr trends with 30 day, 60 day and 90 day trends! I know the chart I linked to only went for 7 years, but I was just using someone else's chart and that was ALL DATA available. The trend lines were spot on.

Well you may feel that it is valid but I just don't agree.

I don't wanna flame you but can I just suggest that you at least consider using a 20 or 30 year log chart to draw such conclusions.

This link is 50 plus years & much more useful IMO.

http://www.sharelynx.net/Charts/AUSTRALIAlog.gif

JR
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