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which suggests to me that the cheapest to produce is being carefully maintained to be ready for the possible 2019 to 2021 shrinkage due to lack of capex for new stuff.

I've never had much luck predicting such things. New leader at OPEC, chaos reigns in Venezuela, Nigeria having trouble keeping their pipes from being blown up, cuts in capex in several production areas including US except for Alaska, Alberta NDP setting max production limits (CO2 Caps) for oilsands to keep election promises ...

Alberta’s Cap on Oilsands Emissions Will Cost Billions With Little Effect on Greenhouse Gases

August 16, 20168:30 AM Marketwired

OPEC’s Former Head Says Conditions Are Right for Oil-Freeze Deal

August 17, 20164:36 AM Bloomberg

A little irony, since the US re-opened to exporting oil the number one customer is ... Canada. Of course Canada was exempt from the export ban anyway and trade routes don't change overnight ... and we still don't have the fracking pipeline to the east coast approved yet. }};-@

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