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Slow month, not a lot to report but I’m posting up my current port for the record. I’ve done very little trading this past month, finding few good reasons to either buy or sell but I did find a good entry point on Fastly and now have a small position. The current state…

THMO 40% -reports 8/11
WKHS 16%
ENPH 14%
CRWD 11%
GAN 9%
NTNX 5%
FSLY 5%
Cash 0%

Most of these report for their most recent quarter in August. I expect good results versus prior quarters from all of them but in the current economy it can be anyones guess what happens. The common theme is that they are all low in their product adoption S curves and I expect they are all going to experience some rapid growth at some point.

Until then, I’m just sitting and waiting. Up 92% YTD.

Hope you are all doing well out there.
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Raybert

Whenever I see a very large position in one company it peaks my interest. Can you elaborate on why you have such confidence in THMO? I seem to sometimes vary from the crowd as well.

caps
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For me THMO is a lot of chart reading and hoping to capitalize on a 'fad' in a cheap stock. I know, there's that word, and I'm not sure it's quite the right word, maybe inexpensive would be better, but maybe we should start at the beginning...

THMO had a steady little business in gene sequencing and something to do with stem cell therapies. They were trading along in the $6 to $8 range for quite a while and then along comes the COVID-19 and they were able to figure out and patent 4 different COVID-19 antibodies for the disease. Then they developed a testing system for the antibodies that they have turned into a fast and simple test for CV-19 immunity, as implied by the presence of the 4 antibodies. That testing product started shipping in this past quarter, and THMO will be reporting on the quarter on 8/11/20.

My thinking is that if they had a long term steady high tech pharma business, and they add a new business related to the CV-19, well they should be trading with a value at or above the old trend line prior to the new product. That's purely a revenue play, we don't know yet how much they spent to get that revenue, so the earnings may actually be negatively affected, I don't know, but the whole new product line seems promising and I expect that in the current environment it will be a net positive in the forseeable future.

So, I have been accumulating the stock. Thing is, it has been going nowhere and even down for the last month or two. It was constantly cheaper than what I had already bought. In most other environments I would take a position and then step back and wait, but like I said in my end of June post, we are in a bubble, and things can get crazy crazy in a bubble. I like the SaaS stocks we all have been following and have done well in them, but the valuations were to stretched for me to just add more ( but I did get some FSLY at $79.10 on the 17th!). Not saying it's a bad move, I was just looking for the next undiscovered high flyer and I'm relatively confident in this one.

So yeah, I kept adding as it got cheaper. Between 5/13 and 7/31 I made 22 separate buys, all about the same size. I only added twice in July, on 7/6 and 7/31 at $5.19 and $5.20 respectively. The outsized position is due to a price jump on the 31st as applied to what was pretty much the same old position at a higher price. Check out the chart...

https://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp...

Back there in early June you can see a high volume day, and I assume it was on some new player buying in because the price rose on the day. Then it languished, don't know why, sometimes all you can do is wait. And then on July 30 there was another huge volume up day. It lost a good bit of that the next day, but not all of it, and it had a good day today.

Chartwise, this looks like it will be an interesting run into the ER on the 11th. I don't have any particular plan for what I'm going to do, but at this point my position is up kinda big on very recent price improvement, and I'm hoping it gets a lot more outsized over the next week.

Right now, it's a fairly interesting trading opportunity, may turn into a great intermediate term swing play, and I may even end up in a good longer term investment. Let's see what the market brings us.

In other news, if you read one of my posts from end of June, I mentioned that one of my stupid trader tricks is to buy FNMA when it goes below $2 a share. I took a first dip into FNMA today at $1.92. Just another inexpensive toy. As they say, it has strong support at $0, so it's not much to risk and if the government wants to print trillions and save the markets, the housing market is certainly a candidate for big new stimulus.

READ THE DISCLAIMER: This isn't exactly Foolish investing. Do Your Own Due Dilligence before you go throwing the rent money on some small story stock.
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Hi Raybert!

Congratulations on your investing success! Impressive.

Your THMO investment piqued my interest. I'm thinking of investing a bit. It's a Micro-cap, so I'm cautious. If I may ask, what impressed you the most?

Thanks!
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Hi Raybert!

I see you've already answered the question. Magnificently, I might add. I like the way you think. I'm gonna take a small position and wait for the earnings report.

Thanks again!
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Up 92% YTD.

Always wondered what drives individuals to boast about their returns.


🆁🅶🅱
post tenebras lux
For not in my bow do I trust, nor can my sword save me.
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Huh?
If honest, it allows us to compare and alter our holdings.
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>>> Up 92% YTD.

>>> Always wondered what drives individuals to boast about their returns.

Yeah, just seems to be the way around here. In a way it's the only metric that distills down an investors level of success in investing. Mutual funds do it, and nobody would invest in a fund that doesn't disclose their performance. Crazy year being what it is, I'm just middle of the bell curve around here. So it's not quite bragging.
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If honest

LOL. Point 1.

Further... most boasts cherry-pick the time period and then are seldom heard from when reversion to the mean occurs.

it allows us to compare and alter our holdings

Sure... with some pseudo-anonymous netizen with no durable creds. Yes, this is a sure, time-proven method to enhance my returns 🙈


🆁🅶🅱
post tenebras lux
For not in my bow do I trust, nor can my sword save me.
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