Skip to main content
Message Font: Serif | Sans-Serif
 
No. of Recommendations: 0
I'm very very short the market via the ultrashort ETF's and am obviously annoyed with today's rating. That being said, I can't figure out for the life of me why we are up 300 today. The Fed has to cut 100 basis points to appease the market which has rallied on these hopes. If they cut 100 or more, they will tank the currency market... the USD/Yen has been crucial to the market recently, when the Yen strengthens, our stock market falls as the carry trade unwinds farther. A 100 point cut, besides being historically unprecedented, would cause a sharp sell-off in the dollar thus tanking the market. A cut of less than 100 disappoints the market and causes a sell-off. I believe the Fed will cut .5 which will panic the market. As I see it, the Fed is in a no-win situation... so, with all that said, why are we rallying today?
Print the post Back To Top
No. of Recommendations: 0
lots of short covering  I suspect. there was massive volume yesterday. if you shorted LEH at 22 yesterday you're toast
Print the post Back To Top
No. of Recommendations: 0
This is what I was praying for in my blog on March 11. We get another fantastic opportunity to go short on financials! It's truly hard to believe this many are still uncromprehending.
Print the post Back To Top
No. of Recommendations: 0

"the market" is obviously thinking different than what you think it should.

 

Print the post Back To Top
No. of Recommendations: 0
Check my other post from before the announcement.  I'm short via the ETFs also. 
Print the post Back To Top
No. of Recommendations: 0
Oh, sorry.  that's should have said "Stupidity"...
Print the post Back To Top
No. of Recommendations: 0
One day is nothing, unless you're leveraged or actually short. Using ETF's to short should be really safe in the near future, though.
Print the post Back To Top
No. of Recommendations: 0

I bought into this rally with an SKF... a little too soon as the Dow ramped up another 100 points... but needless to say, if you are only playing one side of the fence then you can only collect 1/2 the time....  I'm buying long on the sell offs and selling short into the strength... unlike a normal market when you have to wait months for the dow to go up 400 points.. .you only have to wait one day today.... so that means the opportunity to trade both ways and get in and out of positions in a matter of one week vs 3 months are happening all the time.....

 

Print the post Back To Top
No. of Recommendations: 0
Welcome to the dark side floridabuilder
Print the post Back To Top
No. of Recommendations: 0

"I'm very very short the market via the ultrashort ETF's and am obviously annoyed with today's rating. That being said, I can't figure out for the life of me why we are up 300 today."

In the couple of days leading up to today, we saw BSC collapse. People overreacted, and thought that all investment banks would go the same route. But the quarterly numbers just publsihed by GS and LEH suggest that not all investment banks will go the way BSC went. That accounts for the 300 points before the FED cut. Then we got a 75 basis point cut, and everyone was happy (except you ultra-shorters, of course!).

The next couple of days will be crucial. If we give up the 400+ points we gained by the end of the week, the ultra-bears could win this battle. Maybe I'll by an SPY put tomorrow morning, just in case... 

Print the post Back To Top