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Why focused on just these same companies?

Why?

Because they are known leaders in their segments with tremendous earnings and revenues that came from TALCs I have followed over the years.

Have you read The Gorilla Game book by Geoffrey Moore?

Google, Amazon, Apple...pretty easy for them to make anyone look like a genius in hindsight.

Yes, but they and the games they were in were also discussed throughout on Gorilla Game message forums on the internet - including here at the Fool - over the past two decades+.

What about CSCO since 2000?
INTC is 45% over 13-14 years? Not a very good CAGR.


No argument there regarding returns for those two since the early 2000's, but the premise of the "game" was with the industry leaders who emerged and won their segments due to the technology adoption life cycle, patents and the spoils that come with that make good long term investments. I will say that both Cisco and Intel were well discussed on this message board in the 90's along with many others. The returns prior to 2000 were rather eye opening for both. If you were not invested in Cisco in 1990-91, you were not clued into what was going on at all. Cisco was the darling investment you had to buy in 1990, 1991, 1992, etc... . Today, it is a dividend stock. ;-) Obviously Intel is much older and the PC/data center/smart phone/automotive games have covered decades for Intel. Personally, I am very interested with current management and the move to increase manufacturing capacity here in the US for their chips.

Maybe this is just a thing you have with the lifeforce poster. If so, ok.

Well, this particular board died with the dot-com bust and subsequent 9/11 attacks and fell off a cliff after the GFC. The Fool's decision to move to a paid subscription model where most of the content takes place was the death knell of many of these forum discussions. Nobody wanted to talk too much about technology investing for a good decade or more. I have no idea where all of the posters that used to participate on this board in the 1990's ended up, but I just rekindled a little bit of banter with LifeForce (Elmer Fudd and all of his previous alias names) from his post during the GFC regarding valuations and Berkshire Hathaway being the better choice at the time. So I have simply pointed out that in spite of his post regarding valuations at the time of the dominate technology leaders and emerging leaders, the returns have been far better in aggregate which fits with the GG book and why investing in them is a worthwhile longer term endeavor if and when one is following a TALC.

I find parallels to GG from early 2000 to today's Saul board from about Nov 2021.
Will it bounce back quickly or will it be a multi-year drag down in market? Who knows.

I find Saul board stocks can be GG stocks, but not always exactly.
Both focused on hyper-growth/tech.


Again, have you read The Gorilla Game and studied the technology adoption life cycle? I've only skimmed Saul's board a few times and didn't see anything that was akin to the TALC and Gorilla Game investing outside of two or three stocks that I follow closely and are in current respective games.

GG tends to be more long-term.

Yup. The TALC can be a very, very long time frame from start to finish. PC. Networking. OS software. Back office software. Smart Phone. Data Center. CRM. Cloud. Social. Cyber Security. And many more. Good grief, Intel went public in 1971.

Saul stocks tend to be "invest only while growth at x level and exit once growth slows". Feels/sounds a bit like Tornado or S-curve or whatever term someone wants to use.

Yes, it seems like a growth only focused board with everyone bailing out once the hyper-growth phase moves on which is a different game entirely than the technology adoption life cycle investing game where one migrates the investment money into the winner(s) of the game from the basket that were in the TALC. Royalty games vs. Gorilla Games are key games to uncover and realize. Best example of a royalty game was Dell Computer who was selling the equipment that contained technology made by Intel and Microsoft. Dell was a great royalty game investment for a period of time, but the longer term returns of Intel and Microsoft due to the technology hardware and software was the investor's focus. Again, the books that Moore wrote highlight everything in excellent detail and I highly suggest reading them if you have the chance.

GG seems to focus more on dominance in a market/category vs purely focused on growth over x rate.

Yes. Growth could easily come from anywhere: booze, fast food, weed, coffee, technology, drugs, biotech and on and on. GG is solely focused on a disruptive technology and the technology adoption life cycle surrounding it. Certainly there are a few stocks I have seen on Saul's board in various games that do interest me regarding their specific TALCs (cloud, cyber security, software). However, I knew about them and the games they were in before seeing them appear on Saul's board. Beyond that, I don't want to comment as I am not a regular reader of that board.

Timing does matter, imo. If you came into investing in 2001/2002 you did better, more quickly, than someone piling into the market initially at early 2000.

Yes, timing is a factor. Most that participated on this board in the past were investing in games well before 2001/2002. Many of us for at least a decade or more at that point. We were investing in the technology adoption life cycles of networking, personal computing, and even smart phone categories (Qualcomm was a huge favorite due to the patents and technology) and the very early stage preface to streaming technology. Regardless, as I said above, the combination of the dot-com bust, 9/11, GFC and the Fool's switch to paid message forums ended the Fool board's traffic compared to other message boards on the internet that focus on technology investing. Many of those continued to thrive though it all. However, as you mention, timing was key. We were all way too early on Amazon and Qualcomm. ;-)

Same with 2007/8 vs mid-2009.

Funny thing happened though with some of today's now known Gorillas and the games they were in during that time frame. It was an excellent time to be following and investing in games that involved Apple, Google, Amazon, Netflix and a few others. Not dismissing the subject of timing, but each generation of investors will have opportunities for technology adoption life cycles and gorillas to emerge. You missed IBM, Intel, Cisco, Oracle, Microsoft, Apple, Alphabet, Meta, Qualcomm, Salesforce? There will be others. They are few and far between for the TALCs (especially the huge ones like cloud, smart phone, PC), but the strategy of finding the TALCs and playing the basket until a leader emerges who goes on to win the lion's share of the spoils continues to this day.

I find another parallel with the always-up-bro / crypto / Gamestop / Tesla / ARKK crowd of 2000, that jumped in after March 2000 and only ever saw that btd works each and every time.

Sorry to say, but I would color those as different compared to a TALC game. As I said above, disruptive technology that is strong enough to warrant a huge trend change - when it comes along - allows the TALC to happen regardless of where we are in the business cycle and what the FED is doing with monetary policy.

Monetary policy different each period as well; 2000 vs 2008 vs Dec 2018 vs today.

I would venture to say that the technology adoption life cycle surrounding disruptive technologies doesn't really clue into the FED and monetary policy. PC's, smart phones, back office software, cloud computing, data center, etc.. barreled through their TALC's no matter what was going on with the FED and the business cycle. Perhaps you can provide data that disputes that regarding venture capital and tight money conditions, but when a problem requires a solution and that solution comes along - it's a powerful move no matter what the monetary policy is at the time.

Either way, feels like more capitulation still to come, and that time would present a great buying oppty for Gorillas or Saul stocks, etc...

Ah...market timing!

Now you are moving into territory, as did LifeForce before you, that gets beyond the discussion of the technology adoption life cycle, long term holding of Gorillas and starts talking about PE's/Valuations and metrics with regard to interest rates, FED policy, the business cycle, etc... . The longer term technology investor is more interested in the actual disruptive technology and the returns the winner of each category will amass over the entire life cycle of the technology.

If you can buy a moat protected gorilla at 15-16X or 17X compared to over 20X such as we saw last year and earlier this year, it might be a compelling buy for new investors compared to the higher multiples. Those that have been in them for years and years and already own them are simply invested in these good companies for the multi-decade returns they provide, and most likely just hold them knowing that the multiple as well as price fluctuates while the longer term trend remains worth holding. However, see the results of the returns in previous posts of mine in spite of LifeForce raising valuation concerns back during the GFC.

Multiples aside, just look at the revenues and earnings reported this week of Meta, Alphabet, Microsoft, Qualcomm, Apple, Amazon, etc... . Also look at Cisco, Intel, Salesforce, Nvidia. There is a reason in the cap weighted index funds that these large technology companies dominate and are in the top 45-50 of all US companies in the index funds.

BB
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