Why no longer Best Buy considering major drop?Is there concern? Technicals meaning something about the fundamentals?
I would like an explanation from Tim on why YONG was dropped from best buy list. Is it because there are better stock opportunities or is Tim getting cold feet from all the manic sentiment?-zaneBTW my feet are always cold
I believe Tim has shorted the stock. I'm kidding. It's explained in the newsletter, page 1. No catalyst.
From today's newsletter:"You might be surprised that there aren't any Chinese small caps on this list given their recent price declines. Those stocks are still Buys, but Best Buys Now imply a catalyst — and it could take a long time for Chinese small caps to repair their reputation."
I find that to be contrary to the GG philosophy, which I'll do a poor job of paraphrasing here.The GG philosophy is to identify good/great companies selling at a discount to "fair value" after additionally appling a risk discount, with the idea that over the long term the stock will eventually appreciate to reflect the value of the business. Hence GG (and TMF) disreguarding analysts short term projections and price targets.A while back, Tim, in a post to a nervous member contemplating selling a loosing position in a stock, stated something to the effect that if the investment thesis in a stock was intact, the current price was irrevelent.As no credible damaging information on YONG seems to have surfaced, It would appear that we have an incredible discount built into the stock price and a risk/reward ratio deserving of a place on the Best Buy list. At an appropriate exposure level of course. <cough>Just the daily rants of a very confused Swede.
I would like an explanation from Tim on why YONG was dropped from best buy list. Is it because there are better stock opportunities or is Tim getting cold feet from all the manic sentiment?I knew there would some questions about this, which is why -- as kidchicago pointed out -- I tried to address it specifically in the issue.My thinking was that if something is a Best Buy Now then it represents an opportunity to get a stock at a compelling price that offers some near-term capital appreciation potential. With the recent drop across several of our stocks, I thought that potential existed more at this month's 5 companies rather than at YONG, CGA, or WWIN. The reason is that it could take a lot of time for the market to come back to these stocks even if the businesses keep performing. Further, my impression from this board is that people who own these stocks, already own them in decent magnitudes and know the score, so I wanted to make sure other ideas are getting out there.But the BBNs are not a perfect science. These stocks are still Buys and are trading at hefty discounts to my value estimate. The squishiness is just around the "Now" aspect.I hope that's helpful.Tim
"But the BBNs are not a perfect science. These stocks are still Buys and are trading at hefty discounts to my value estimate. The squishiness is just around the "Now" aspect.I hope that's helpful.Tim"Yes, that's very helpful. Now I can state that there's squishiness around most of my stocks, and can eliminate the work flakey when discussing them. I think that has a much better ring to it.Swede
Tim, this is not YONG-related, but I was wondering if Global Gains had analyzed the performance of the BBN list over the last few years. I believe--maybe because you said this previously--that such an analysis would show the BBN list beating the official scorecard. To test that, I would create a portfolio that bought $1,000 of each BBN at the time each was released over the last few years and see how it's done. But I don't want to do that work if you have already done it. Thanks.
The only catalysts I can see are:1. The big investment banks do their own diligence and initiate coverage of YONG, etc. 2. The buyouts of HRBN, CSR, FunTalk and a few other China small caps actually happen. The HRBN and FunTalk LBO's seem likely, not sure about CSR.
I was wondering if Global Gains had analyzed the performance of the BBN list over the last few yearsThis is an ongoing project across all of the services. I did just complete a snapshot from the roughly 1-year-ago period and wrote about it in an update a few weeks back:http://newsletters.fool.com/25/online-exclusives/updates/201...Tim
I'm a little confused, which isn't that difficult for a Swede. Is the benchmark performance listed on best buys now from the date of the origional recommendation, the date they became a best buy, or the monthly period?
The BBN list did not just beat the MSCI, it crushed it every month. I'm going to try to expand this analysis this weekend and will post my results. Thanks.
Sweden - let's work a bit more or wordsmithijg to make you appear smarter. Rather than being a bit confused why not be not perfectly clear or not fully understand.I would think the date of becoming a BBN would be the choice that made sense. Otherwise just pick ones that have fine up and from their original price they would be winners.
Thanks for the help DaGecko. Now everything is almost much more partly not so unclear.
Wow, I take the day off and play golf on this beautiful spring day in North Carolina and come back to all kinds of good information!Fool on,Samwise
Tim,Thanks a lot. Just wanted to make sure there wasn't any new material information leading you to be cautious that I missed.Thanks,Arthur
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