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This link has some sample articles related to AMSC that were in Superconductor Week in December 1999.

Included which I found of interest was:

"What can make a major difference to the potential breadth of HTS applications is wire cost" Malozemoff continued. "While BSCCO OPIT wires with silver may ultimately achieve cost-performance close to $10/kAm (where "cost" means direct cost of materials and direct labor), the price is likely to be more than two times higher. Such a price will be adequate for quite a few applications, but it will not be low enough to impact the broadest range of copper-replacement opportunities. YBCO coated conductor, in which the YBCO is deposited using conventional thin-film vacuum deposition processes, will also have difficulty meeting the $10/kAm price-performance target." By lowering YBCO and buffer seed layer deposition costs, Malozemoff believes the technology can achieve the $10/kAm price-performance target."

Good Luck.

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Cyborg brings up a great point. As promising as AMSC is, it has to reach a certain price point/utility factor to make it into mainstream application. It will only be at this point that AMSC will live up to the Intel comparisons that many make. If Intel chip price points had never come down to mainstream levels computers would have remained a niche - high-end only market and Intel would be worth about 1/50th (give or take) its current value, no matter what the actual need projected for computers would be.

AMSC is in a similar circumstance. The challenge is to make this price point. If AMSC can do it, and do it in mass quantity, AMSC will be a monster stock from here. If it can not, regardless of the need, other solutions will be utilized to resolve the problem and AMSC will be very disappointing.

So keep your eye on how the company progresses in this fashion. We know the company is far and away the technological leader. We know the market opportunity is huge. We do not know if AMSC can deliver. What we do know for certain is that at its current price point it cannot deliver in mass quantities and is currently relegated to very niche roles.

I note the CEO does not use definitive language in reporting the $10 price point, but uses language that this is the goal, but not that obtaining the goal is a given. It is not a given that AMSC will move beyond the niche - it is a vision. Lets see how they progress.

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This is a good discussion because it brings up the topic that will make or break this company.

As we all have seen with other companies in chip, pharmaceutical, and data storage industries, the initial customers with the greatest need experience an economy of scale where it makes sense to pay the high prices. There may be enough demand from heavy power users that the seemingly prohibitive cost of the product will actually make sense to them. This could subsidize a wider, more mainstream product offering.

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TinkerShaw wrote:

I note the CEO does not use definitive language in reporting the $10 price point...

Just for the record...Malozemoff is the CTO not the CEO. Your point is otherwise well taken.

Fool On.

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