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After 35 years, i retired (early I might add at 57). What a relief!

I was really looking forward and eager to get my 401k roll over and pension lump sum (YESSS! I got one of those!), but now I am faced with a market timer's dilemma: buy now and face the consequences if the market tanks, or pretend to have and all seeing eye and stay cash fat for awhile.

I know we should never time the market, and foolish theory suggests continuous investment, looking for good value or growth stories out there and ignore the noise of the market is the best way to a happy ending. TMF has been good to me for sure. I have a giant list of new positions i can take from Premier Pass, and EP: but I am reluctant as much as eager. Right now I am dipping my toe into a few beaten down names and industries I am light in.

suffice to say, I take part in a lot of sophisticated trading: I do a lot of options trades per Options and Pro services, put spread hedging, futures, currency (Livemoney Investing Service). So I am not averse to volatility, but, seriously: jump in NOW?

Also, my after tax accounts are larger than my qualified accounts, but, my taxable accounts have about 60% of their value in unrealized gains (holy tax burden!) so the gains are immense and difficult to extricate oneself from. To wit, having the cash in my qualified accounts serves some market hedging purpose. I cant imagine a better outcome than having loads of cash in case of a market crash to console me for losses in my taxable accounts.

I still haven't taken my lump sum, as I am waiting to see this month's segment rates, but I think based on activity in the bond markets, this is a very likely event.

So i think I will only make small measured purchases and see how the market plays out, and not try to jump into the pool all at once like i imagined.

Smaug, the magnificent!
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"but now I am faced with a market timer's dilemma: buy now and face the consequences if the market tanks, or pretend to have and all seeing eye and stay cash fat for awhile."

Dollar-cost averageinto market.
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No. of Recommendations: 1
<<After 35 years, i retired (early I might add at 57). What a relief!>>


Congratulations!


<<I know we should never time the market, and foolish theory suggests continuous investment, looking for good value or growth stories out there and ignore the noise of the market is the best way to a happy ending. TMF has been good to me for sure. I have a giant list of new positions i can take from Premier Pass, and EP: but I am reluctant as much as eager. Right now I am dipping my toe into a few beaten down names and industries I am light in.>>



Ummm. I disagree with the idea that one should "never" time the market.


Personally, my investment strategy is basically one of "buy 'n hold."

However, I collect substantial dividends and get cash payoffs of stocks that are bought out and such from time to time.

Some of that I DRIP back into the market. Other cash I accumulate for a good buying opportunity, and to avoid buying in when the stock market is expensive, as it is now.


That left me with a lot of cash during the last recession to live on and to invest when stocks were cheaper afetr the market was slaughtered.


<<suffice to say, I take part in a lot of sophisticated trading: I do a lot of options trades per Options and Pro services, put spread hedging, futures, currency (Livemoney Investing Service). So I am not averse to volatility, but, seriously: jump in NOW?>>


This describes what I call GRATUITOUS RISK. As soon as you save a dollar, you HAVE to do SOMETHING with it, even if it's putting it under your mattress. And EVERYTHING involves at least some risk. So you have to take some risk with investments, and even keeping money in cash has its risks.

But I distinguish that from taking gratuitous risks, of which options trading is a prime example.

Perhaps you are among the small minority with an actual need to hedge commodities, stocks or other investments. Or perhaps you are among the small number who actually have the information and skill needed to participate in such markets wisely. But the large majority of people trading in those markets are gambling, plain and simple, and are likely to be big losers if they keep gambling with their money that way.


That's my view of the issues you raise. Of course your own investing style is up to you.


Seattle Pioneer
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<<"but now I am faced with a market timer's dilemma: buy now and face the consequences if the market tanks, or pretend to have and all seeing eye and stay cash fat for awhile."

Dollar-cost averageinto market. >>



Yes, I do some of that even when the market is expensive as it is now.


You never can tell. Perhaps the trees WILL grow to the sky this time!



Seattle Pioneer
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I have timed the market before, sat out most of 2008/2009 in cash:) lucky me. But, I watched helplessly during the dot com bust as I lost half my assets. so i am batting 50/50. I didn't have in any money in 1987 :(.

most of my hedging is with put ratio spreads. TMF Pro uses this strategy quite frequently, usually using etf options on QQQ, MDY and SPY. I do them with futures options because I can cover more portfolio with fewer contracts. They're doing very nicely, I get paid to open them and they climb in value as time passes, and jump in value when markets drop (you lose on massive drops).

TMF Pro and TMF Options services use a lot of options, and I generally follow their picks, short puts, calendar spreads, covered calls and the like. You should read up on it, and consider the service. It is NOT gratuitous gambling. I learnt most of my option trading from these two services.

These option strategies are actually engineering higher returns when done properly and reduce portfolio risk. Seems counter intuitive. I don't speculate with options much (e.g. I bought 6000 FB $20 leaps when FB was $15 and exercised them), and I don't "Trade" anything short term, though I might take a scalp now and then. Commodities are an interesting game, and TMF doesn't entertain them. Too bad, they can be terrific. But agreed, they can be weapons of financial destruction (buffett).

My post is really about being shocked having so much cash all the sudden. I expected to be like a kid in a candy store. Instead, I am being a little paralytic with the market in its current condition. I find that surprising in me.

Yes, I will make slow and judicious picks, and ease my way in without rushing.
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