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WHile for some inexplicable reason we have never been given an established fatality rate for COVID-19, let's assume the rate is about the 1% that seems to be widely used.

According to John Hopkins, the US has seen 136,671 confirmed CV deaths (this does not include a large number of presumed, but not confirmed, deaths)

The number of infected cases reported is 3,291,786 or about 1% of our population

Using 1% fatality rate, the number should be about 13,667,000 or about 4% of our population

Jeff
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No. of Recommendations: 6
I just took a look at the national death number (everyone needs a hobby:-) and Texas, California and Florida are all pushing into 3 digits. Now, coming from NY where, at our top, we were pumping out 800 stiffs a day, this seems paltry, but it's important to realize two things:

1) The curves can grow quickly and, if the reports of hospital ICU's overflowing in these states are to be believed, each day is likely to accelerate the deaths (some of which will likely be those who could have been saved, but were filtered out by triage when ICU's are filled).

2) More effective treatment techniques are lowering the death rate, but that doesn't reduce the number infected, hospitalized or, presumably, any post-infection complications down the road.

The solutions to our problems are well documented and proven by the results of numerous other nations. We had a halfa$$ed shutdown for a couple of weeks too short due to poor national and, in many cases, poor state leadership accompanied by a large portion of the population which seems to have been either poorly educated or questionably motivated.

If we do not take those measures, the number of deaths before an effective vaccine is distributed are easy to calculate (choose your favorite vaccine date). The national shutdown was extraordinarily expensive. Throwing away that effort and expense in the name of a handful of incremental bucks should be an indictment in the voting booth of any politician who advocated not following the CDC guidance on when and how to open. If NYS could be successful at this, starting from where they were on the curve, those states which did not have a problem could have almost completely avoided their currently deteriorating positions.

Jeff
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No. of Recommendations: 2
The mortality rate is a moving target.

It is not only impacted by the age of the infected, it is impacted by the viral load picked up and the delay in treatment as well as the efficacy of the treatment.

Even without new drugs, getting people to the hospital before their oxygen crashed and other simple things probably has had a significant impact on the mortality rate.

When this first started, closed group experience showed a mortality rate of between 1.2 and 0.6. As we have gotten better at lowering the viral load and intervening sooner, and with better practices, the mortality rate has dropped by about half, with some studies, (citation needed) showing a mortality rate near 0.2.

So using the confirmed deaths, 136,671, and a mortality rate of 0.5 (just taking an average, this is really lose and a spread between 0.3 and 0.9 is more likely) we can multiply by 200 to get roughly 28 million infected. 42 million on the top end and 15 million at the bottom.

My guess is that we lose less than a million if we achieve herd immunity the hard way.

Cheers
Qazulight
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No. of Recommendations: 2
The national shutdown was extraordinarily expensive. Throwing away that effort and expense in the name of a handful of incremental bucks should be an indictment in the voting booth of any politician who advocated not following the CDC guidance on when and how to open. If NYS could be successful at this, starting from where they were on the curve, those states which did not have a problem could have almost completely avoided their currently deteriorating positions.

Jeff,

You're right. Those states which did not have a problem could have almost completely avoided their currently deteriorating positions if it weren't for human nature.

It takes extreme motivation or self-control to overcome the inertia of human nature.

In the absence of self-control, any of the following will work:

1. Extreme peer pressure (shaming),

2. An authoritarian dictator, OR

3. A bunch of dead bodies piled up, plus a governor who is willing to harangue the populace every day relentlessly until they assist his efforts with peer pressure and shaming.

As high risk individuals, DW and I will remain prisoners in our home until the majority of people in our area are wearing masks and social distancing. Unfortunately, it looks like we're stuck at home for the long haul.

People who ought to be wearing masks and social distancing consistently behave as if just one or the other will work by itself.

They are wrong.

It takes masks PLUS social distancing to arrest the spread of COVID-19.

Authoritarian dictatorships like China have a much easier time overcoming human nature through the power of fear, sure retribution, and prosecution.

New York was unlucky because so many people died, but because all those dead bodies motivated the governor to preach the truth on TV until the people started to believe. Once a critical mass of people became believers, they exerted the peer pressure necessary to overcome human nature.

Once dead bodies become visible to people, they will do what they should. Until then, harangues, peer pressure and shaming is the only thing that has been proven to work in the USA.

Unfortunately, it looks like the USA will be seeing a lot more dead bodies before this is over.
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No. of Recommendations: 1
NEW YORK STATS:

New York state recorded its lowest Covid-19 three-day death toll average — which is seven – since March 16, the governor said in a new release Saturday.

New York reported six Covid-19 related deaths yesterday, Gov. Andrew Cuomo said.

Hospitalizations dropped below 800 for the first time since March 18, Cuomo said.

Of the 69,203 tests conducted in New York yesterday, 730 were positive, according to the release.

New York City hovered over a 1% positivity rate for Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.

“I urge residents to stay New York tough and not give up the ground we've worked so hard to gain together, particularly in the face of rising cases throughout the country and compliance issues here at home," Cuomo said.

Jeff
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My guess is that we lose less than a million if we achieve herd immunity the hard way.

Yeah, quite possible, but also quite possible to go over a million. Another very rough pass: 60% infected for herd immunity, from 300 million population = 180 million infected. .5% fatality rate gives 900,000 dead.
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I think 0.5 percent going forward is very high. Probably double what the actual mortality will be.

Cheers
Qazulight
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People who ought to be wearing masks and social distancing consistently behave as if just one or the other will work by itself. They are wrong. It takes masks PLUS social distancing to arrest the spread of COVID-19.

I agree with the last sentence, as a matter of public policy. But in the case of individuals, there's no reason to mask if you avoid indoor public settings entirely (as I do) and you are consistently well distanced from other people outdoors (as I am).

Hardly anyone wears masks outdoors in our neighborhood or along the river trail where I run regularly. We're able to do that because we all have the good sense to steer well clear of one another. It's not difficult.

Of course, if I lived in the middle of a crowded city, this wouldn't work.
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Hardly anyone wears masks outdoors in our neighborhood or along the river trail where I run regularly. We're able to do that because we all have the good sense to steer well clear of one another. It's not difficult.

MisterFungi,

I would like to feel comfortable with a mere 6 feet between myself and a potential carrier's naked face. Unfortunately, my pulmonary fibrosis and bad heart valve make me wary of merely observing social distance without masking.

The most recent laboratory research indicates that the virus can remain in the air for 16 hours after it is released as an aerosol spray (such as a sneeze), if the following described test results are accurate:

"Aerosol droplets are so small that they can remain suspended in the air, especially in a stagnant indoor airspace for many hours," [said] Dr. Scott Weaver with UTMB Institute for Human Infections & Immunity. He explained a new study that shows just how long the virus can stay in the air.

"(It) turns out the longest time point we measured -- 16 hours, the virus was still alive in aerosols created experimentally in a laboratory environment," Weaver said.

COVID-19 is understood to be a droplet-transmitted virus. A group of scientists not associated with this study are actually trying to get the virus re-classified as airborne transmitted.


https://abc13.com/health/covid-19-lingers-in-the-air-for-hou...

Out of doors, the risk should be considerably less than indoors. However, if COVID-19 can linger for 16 hours in still enclosed air, I fear it might linger for at least a short period of time in still outdoor air.
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I think 0.5 percent going forward is very high. Probably double what the actual mortality will be.

Could be, if somehow we were able to maintain a moderate, steady burn of the infection through the population while not overwhelming the hospitals. But, what are the chances of that happening on route to infecting 180 million people? I think there would likely be some rough situations where significantly more infected people will die in an urban area than .5% because medical resources are strained.
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Personal anecdote (worth practically nothing, of course). My nephew contracted Sars-Cov2 prior to July 5th when he started coughing, and feeling under the weather. He was confirmed positive on July 7th.

he was in close contact with 48 people at a July 3rd independence day celebration. It rained 2" that day, pushing all who attended indoors for 2+hours. In that time, they ate, played on electronic devices, and with board games. As a group of preteens, I'm sure they did not social distance or wash hands. (I cannot confirm)

There are no other cases confirmed among the dozens who were tested in the time since (July 8th-10th). No one has symptoms, either.

That family also has 4 children and, as of today, 6+ days later, no one has symptoms; all have negative tests.

Lucky, good with hygiene, or ? I'm pleasantly surprised.
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Could be, if somehow we were able to maintain a moderate, steady burn of the infection through the population while not overwhelming the hospitals.

You are still talking about a lot of dead people.

Did you see this report, about a 30-something idiot that went to a "covid party"?

30-year-old dies after attending 'COVID party' thinking virus was a 'hoax'

The man told nurses, "I think I made a mistake."


https://abcnews.go.com/US/30-year-man-dies-attending-covid-p...

Youth is not a sure protection. Blood type is not a sure protection. Gender is not a sure protection.

imho, anyone advocating letting the virus burn through the population is advocating genocide.

Steve
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Could be, if somehow we were able to maintain a moderate, steady burn of the infection through the population while not overwhelming the hospitals. But, what are the chances of that happening on route to infecting 180 million people? I think there would likely be some rough situations where significantly more infected people will die in an urban area than .5% because medical resources are strained.



Absolutely,

If it overwhelms the medical system we can expect the high end of 1.3 and collateral death bringing the damage to 3 percent.

Can over whelm the rural system quickly too.

Cheers
Qazulight
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