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Would it enhance your confidence in the claim I make here any if I used quotation marks and gave a page reference, sydsydsd?

"The historical returns we considered in the last chapter are invaluable, but these data can at times be misleading. The prudent investor requires a more accurate estimate of future returns for stocks and bonds than simply looking at the past" (Page 43, "The Three Pillars of Investing"). I purchased my copy through, and it arrived at the doorstep in 24 hours.

Now this is particularly interesting. Bernstein is saying that he looks at things that have not occurred in the past to make his future estimates of safety. I think that therein lies the difference between the two studies, one only looks at past data, while the other uses some other data in addition. Problem solved.

Now, what information does Bernstein use for his more accurate estimate that hasn't occurred in the past ? And how does he know that this information is a velid representation of what may occur if it hasn't ever occurred in the past ?
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