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Would you rather have a 100% chance of paying me $900 or a 1% chance of paying me $1900... and a 99% chance of paying me $0.

I thought you left off part of this :-)

Another item that might apply:

-Do you have a HELOC ready to be used? Like you said, $6000 earning 3% for 30 years so you don't have to pay 6% on a HELOC for a year or $6000 earning 10% and paying 6% on a HELOC for a year.

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