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No. of Recommendations: 2
The company has $5.5B debt, $1 B cash, and $2 B sustainable EBITDA, roughly $750 m will go towards dividend, $1 B per share on a full year basis and $250 M will go towards buyback. Imagine a REIT that buybacks shares instead of selling them! At right price, This is a good purchase.
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not a very good dividend so you buy and hope it goes higher. can not eat hope here.
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No. of Recommendations: 3
WY has switched to base dividend + special dividend. So what you are seeing is base dividend of $0.17c and based on the EBITDA, and company's guidance of how much FAD they want to pay out as dividend, it will be roughly $1, give or take few cents.

I understand it is not immediately visible but you are not eating any hope here.
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Kingran,

What is your source on the buybacks for WY? In recent years they have both reduced and increased share count slightly.

I love buying shares of companies with moderate growth, decent dividends, strengthening balance sheets and declining share count.

VM
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No. of Recommendations: 1
The company presentation. BTW, the increase in share count is due to shares issued on the M&A. They were steadily buying back. WY, has in my opinion a strong balance sheet, net debt is < 15% of EV, debt is 1.5 x EBITDA, @ $1 dividend it will be around 2.75% to 3% depending on the share price; the buybacks will be about 1% of outstanding capital @ $250M buyback on $25 B market cap.

In the future if the stock price declines, I think the company has ability to lever up and deploy couple of billions on buyback. In other words, at right conditions, they can lever up, and retire 10% of outstanding shares without impacting their investment grade.

The challenge is buying the stock at the right price or for an idiot like me, when you buy, just hold it forever.
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"The challenge is buying the stock at the right price or for an idiot like me, when you buy, just hold it forever."

About 15-20 years ago I developed, or tried to, a group of stocks that I intended to hold forever, or at least until they got a step-up basis at my death.

It didn't work out so well.

Some like Mexican cement company CX, fell on rough times and were sold at a loss. Others like small energy company AE or Korean steel company PKX just went up so much that I just sold.

AE was sold back in mid-late 2008 when oil prices, and AE's share price, reached unstainable levels. PKX was sold slightly earlier when the Chinese drove steel prices to unstainable levels in preparing for the 2008 Olympics - although I didn't realize it at the time.

You know what? For once I got it right! Today CX trades even lower than what I sold it for 10+ years earlier and neither AE or PKX have ever gotten back to where I sold them. However, I have twice repurchases PKX last year and earlier this year.

I can hold a stock for years, but when the price starts going up sharply, I sell some or all.
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No. of Recommendations: 1
I can hold a stock for years, but when the price starts going up sharply, I sell some or all.

That's the challenge I am trying to overcome :)

The art of knowing that you are selling MSFT in 2000 versus, GOOGL at some point in the past decade. Unless you have extreme valuation that is covering at least next 3 years of growth and more, I don't want to sell.

Resisting the urge to sell has worked well, at least in the past decade :)

All these years, I have never paid any attention to tax consequences, now I think it makes no sense to sell and pay taxes. Buffett had figured out something on this, and look at Berkshire, you need to find a compounder, even if it compounds at 6% to 8%, over time they do fantastic.
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No. of Recommendations: 3
there's a reason that Fidelity study showed dead accounts out performed all others.
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The challenge is buying the stock at the right price

The stock is on downtrend. Clearly the 1Q result, which is outlier, going to create a significant comp issue. Let us see where the stock settles. I have sold Jan 21 $20 Puts for $0.4 on brokerage account, so if it expires useless then I make a 11% return. If the premium keeps raising (as the price declines) I might consider selling puts on IRA (which requires cash secured, at today's rate you get 3.35%).
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WY declared special dividend of $0.5, this along with 3 quarters of $.17 so far totals $1.01 and if they pay 4th Qtr 0.17 will equal $1.18. Which is while less than $1.36 they paid before COVID, still a respectable dividend in this environment.
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On the buyback the company increased it to $1 B. It is not readily clear whether they bought anything on the earlier $500 M program.
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Some additional thoughts:

The company expects to pay supplemental dividend on 1Q, which they are expecting to pay on 2022!. So there is $0.68 base dividend and some supplemental dividend, together my expectations is the dividends will total at least $0.80 ~ $1.0. Not a big fan of buying at this price, but I am writing some puts with an intention of taking the shares.
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No. of Recommendations: 3
OK, after reading the 3Q results, and presentation, the 1Q special dividends will be at least $1.25!!! (of course this is an one-time event driven by wood products stellar 2Q performance). Next year dividends will be at least $1.8 and possibly as high as $2 (depending on the 4Q, the commentary is positive).

Just to re-iterate, most of the excess profits in wood products is "transitory" as supply constraints comes down, lumber prices revert to normal, they could go away in few quarters. So don't expect these dividends to continue.

For a really long-term I would still assume $.8 to $1 sustainable dividend (regular dividend + special dividends) and time to time higher special dividends based on lumber price volatility.

Nothing to get excited and probably not worth buying at these prices. I continue to follow a number of companies, not expecting to buy them immediately, but just be prepared and wait for any disruption in the market.
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No. of Recommendations: 4
"Just to re-iterate, most of the excess profits in wood products is "transitory" as supply constraints comes down,"

Most of the excess profits from last year's surge in lumber prices went to the sawmills.

The lumber supply chain is composed primarily of 4 segments - timberland owners, loggers, sawmills and lumber yard (retailers).

My brother-in-law used to own a lumber yard and as lumber prices surged last year he predicted that most of the price increases would accrue to the sawmills. He was correct.

Sawmill ownership is becoming more and more concentrated. The closest two large sawmills to me were bought by West Frasier, a large Canadian lumber company, after the housing meltdown a decade ago. They had been locally family owned (2 different families.

The concentration of ownership of sawmills gives them a competitive advantage is taking the largest share of the profits in supplying lumber.

VM - Long RYN, but it has been a somewhat mediocre and somewhat disappointing investment.
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No. of Recommendations: 2
Long RYN, but it has been a somewhat mediocre and somewhat disappointing investment.

RYN was my first Timber REIT purchase, right after the chemicals spin-off. Anyhow, RYN is not attractive to me, the dividend yield is not great, and $6.5 B enterprise value means per acre it is valued at $2400. That's high. Of course RYN argues it is not so.

If I have to choose a timber REIT, probably RYN may be a quality one, but not much upside or dividend yield.
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