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The 40-year chart looks like a good entry point for XOM, of course there are a ton of issues associated with an investment in such a company (macro, political, etc.) and many folks may have an aversion to investing in a company that extracts fossil fuels that are then combusted.

https://invest.kleinnet.com/bmw1/stats40/XOM.html

The 16-year view is nowhere near as promising, but is still at about -1RMS.
https://invest.kleinnet.com/bmw1/stats16/XOM.html

Any big spike in the price of oil would seem likely to propagate into a nice increase for XOM, one would think.

-volfan84
no XOM position
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The 40-year chart looks like a good entry point for XOM,

No, it doesn't! Forget the numbers for a moment and look at the price line. That's what I call a tired company that no longer grows at previous rates. It's not enough to read the chart, one also has to figure out why the chart is saying what it is saying (I'm tired). As I recall, the consumption of oil has been declining. All the effort put into stopping climate change blamed on CO2 is having an effect not so much in renewables but also in more energy efficient buildings, jet engines, airplanes, ICEs. Deep sea oil is very expensive and fracking seems to be less profitable than expected.

When looking at BMWM charts I'm looing for spikes down that seem unwarranted like the Tylenol murders -- market over reactions. To give an example, I invested in RyanAir in June 2004 (good) and in May 2009 (so-so). RYAAY might be of interest again soon.

https://invest.kleinnet.com/bmw1/stats20/RYAAY.html

Denny Schlesinger
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Denny,
Before you re-invest in any airline-related stock, I'd suggest you read some of the posts from "MC01" on the "Wolf Street" blog site. Here's a recent one but there are a number of others: https://wolfstreet.com/2018/12/08/airlines-in-south-southeas...
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RYAAY may be the healthiest airline, fundamentally, of the whole bunch, but I have no idea about its debt. Near its 52-wk low. The resolution of Brexit may move it sharply one way or the other.
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I have no intention of investing in airlines, they are usually value destructors. When I invested in RYAAY Southwest (LUV) was doing very well and I figured discount airlines had found a profitable niche. When RYAAY, the stock, went south, I figured it was time to buy and got it right. But times have changed as you and the article point out.

My reason for mentioning RYAAY was to illustrate how to use Klein charts and the BMW method, not to recommend a specific stock. But thanks for the heads up!

Denny Schlesinger
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Thanks for the response, Denny. Great point about the loooooong-term flattening versus a sharp downward move and the associated relevance (lack of relevance) to use of the BMW Method.

XOM seems to have historically been one of the best-managed oil behemoths, but oil does have huge headwinds still so probably not worth me using much investing time trying/hoping to time a big shift in crude oil prices.

Also, glad to have come across Ryan Air (RYAAY) in the discussion, as I hadn't ever heard of that airline, but it does seem a bit intriguing. Ironically enough, the present low crude oil prices could have positive impacts on margins for airlines. RYAAY does look like a better potential candidate for a BMW Method style trade.

-volfan84
Possibly eyeing SWKS for a medium/long-term trade in the near future, 16-year looks better than 20 with the dot-com bubble further in the past

https://invest.kleinnet.com/bmw1/stats16/SWKS.html
https://invest.kleinnet.com/bmw1/stats20/SWKS.html
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No, it doesn't! Forget the numbers for a moment and look at the price line. That's what I call a tired company that no longer grows at previous rates. It's not enough to read the chart, one also has to figure out why the chart is saying what it is saying (I'm tired).

Looking at a price CAGR chart, with or without “numbers” tells you nothing about a company or its prospects; all it records is historical stock prices.

Concluding that a flatlining stock price CAGR line means a company is “tired” and doesn’t represent opportunity for an investor is a bit like thinking after several months of winter winter will last indefinitely.

Flatlining stock prices often represent opportunity. In some cases companies earnings growth has slowed and investors have over reacted and bid down the value of the companies too far, sometimes cutting their P/E ratios in half. For example: defense stocks for several years after the Great Recession were still slowly growing earnings and could be had for PE’s of 9 or 10 — no longer. The same is true of Microsoft. Market sentiment rather than company fundamentals were at play.

None of this though could be gleaned from reading the tea leaves of a price CAGR chart. Sometimes investors are grumpy and gloomy, but like the seasons their mood changes. And, sometimes companies deteriorate and fail and investors pay attention, but neither of which can be gleaned from a chart with only one metric on it (in this case prices).

You can neither know if
the 40-year chart looks like a good entry point for XOM
Or
No, it doesn’t!
from one of these charts.
You two are just reading the tea leaves differently and it makes me think of this exchange from Hamlet.

HAMLET
Do you see that cloud up there that looks like a camel?

POLONIUS
By God, it does look like a camel

HAMLET
To me it looks like a weasel.

POLONIUS
It does have a back like a weasel’s.

HAMLET
Or like a whale.

POLONIUS
Yes, very much like a whale.



Tea leaves; clouds; the BMW method…

kelbon
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I just can't understand what's motivating you, Kelbon, to write these things, repeatedly...
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I just can't understand what's motivating you, Kelbon, to write these things, repeatedly...

This gives the impression that I obsessively hammer down on the nail head. Yet, the objective reality is that I'd posted a total of five times on this board in the last two calendar years. (Now it's six).

"These things." That's a catch all if anything is. My last post; the one you seem to be objecting to, was an observation specific to the thread.

And as for repetition: after all, repetition is a key to learning, is it not? :)

kelbon
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Consider, Kelbon, the question I asked and the answer(s) you gave - you answered questions not asked, and you may be doing it as a distraction from fessing up to the question raised: what's motivating you? Are you trying to save gullible, ignorant or unwary investors? Or are you getting off on just antagonizing those who want to exchange ideas on the belief that there's some usefulness in the BMWm method? At no point, in the several years that I've followed posts and attended meetings, has anyone suggested that the BMWm method is a complete and singular approach to stock investing. It's a view of historical info about cagr of stock prices. "Due diligence" has consistently been called for.
No response is necessary, imo. I'm not calling you out on this to argue, just to figure out what the heck is bothering you so much about the dialogues on this board.
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Consider, Kelbon, the question I asked and the answer(s) you gave

First of all, you didn't ask a question, you made a statement, see below:

I just can't understand what's motivating you, Kelbon, to write these things, repeatedly...

-----------

If you had objectively read what I have written—usually in response to specific postings—you wouldn't be making this statement or asking your "question."

At no point, in the several years that I've followed posts and attended meetings, has anyone suggested that the BMWm method is a complete and singular approach to stock investing. It's a view of historical info about cagr of stock prices. "Due diligence" has consistently been called for.

You would also know that I'm a cheerleader when it comes to due diligence.

kelbon
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