My error on Alteryx. Well, as I told you, I sold all I could without committing to large taxes on the shares that I had originally bought at $27 or $28 and were now at $178. (I did cut my position from a maximum of 22% to 23% or so, down to 6%, so I wasn’t all bad!) I felt that the headwind they were facing was exaggerated and that they were being cautious, and in shell-shock, and that they would end up at double their midpoint prediction and have revenue up 28% instead of 14% (which would still have been very weak for a company that was at 75% two quarters ago).Well I was wrong, apparently, although that’s in retrospect. I would have been much better off if I had sold out, reinvested the money now in companies like DataDog and Crowd and Zoom and maybe even in Fastly and Cloudflare, and just paid the taxes in April. That’s what was really stupid of me! If I had done that I probably would have been able to grow the money enough to pay the taxes out of what I had gained in the next eight months, and even had plenty of gains left over.Saul
. I would have been much better off if I had sold out, reinvested the money now in companies like DataDog and Crowd and Zoom and maybe even in Fastly and Cloudflare, and just paid the taxes in April. That’s what was really stupid of me! If I had done that I probably would have been able to grow the money enough to pay the taxes out of what I had gained in the next eight months, and even had plenty of gains left over.Just thinking out loud about AYX. I've been a firm believer that AYX provided products and capabilities that every enterprise was going to want or need and that they will prosper in the future. I anticipated that the second and third quarters would be weak and maybe the fourth as well, but that 2021 would be a big winner, accentuated by YoY comparisons. Well the second quarter was weak and the guidance for Q3 is also poor.So despite a gross margin of 91% a DBNER of over 126% and 40% ARR one has to wonder where it ends, or if it ends. COVID cases are increasing relentlessly, the vaccine may or may not be available by year's end .lots of folks are saying they won't get vaccinated, and no one can guess how long it will be before the most affected verticals who might use AYX can resume normal operations let alone consider business processing enhancements.In anticipation of the weakness I took my AYX stake down from 10% to 6% more than 25% of which has since evaporated......a nice chunk of change. Now I also expected that there would be across the board heavy selling after 6 or more quarterly reports from major SaaS companies, if only because there are a lot ofinvestors who "sell on the news ". Many more sell if the news is bad. So I still foresee better days ahead for AYX although it may take a while, which is the point at issue.My average cost for AYX is $102,so although selling now (in a taxable account) adds to my bill it is a sustainable cost. Question on the table is...Sell AYX at this point, or stick with it in anticipation of recovery. But that seems to be everyone's dilemma. I'll have to ponder this one.Cheersdraj
Having watched a lot of investors over the years, it is rare to find such brutal honesty and willingness to share it. Most people bs to justify their decision. That's what makes Saul such a great investor.
I had cut my position in AYX to about 2.5% after the last earnings call. Apparently, that wasn't a steep enough cut. As of the close of market today, it's now under 2%. I'm exiting the position on Monday (or on the weekend if I can figure out how after hours trading works) and putting the money elsewhere, probably DDOG which is now my 5th largest position and I think deserves a larger share of my investment funds.
I felt that the headwind they were facing was exaggerated and that they were being cautious, and in shell-shock, and that they would end up at double their midpoint prediction and have revenue up 28% instead of 14% (which would still have been very weak for a company that was at 75% two quarters ago).Well I was wrong, apparently, although that’s in retrospect. I would have been much better off if I had sold out, reinvested the money now in companies like DataDog and Crowd and Zoom and maybe even in Fastly and Cloudflare, and just paid the taxes in April. That’s what was really stupid of me! If I had done that I probably would have been able to grow the money enough to pay the taxes out of what I had gained in the next eight months, and even had plenty of gains left over.AYX management was the boy who cried wolf. I mean if you look at their guidance and then the result for the several quarters leading into the pandemic, then you saw massive beats to guidance. I think that given this history it was reasonable to assume that they were sandbagging yet again. Well, this time the boy got eaten. So, Saul, perhaps it was a mistake to not sell solely because of a tax bill but otherwise the decision to hold was a reasonable one especially when we thought (and still think, I think) that AYX's business and stock will more than recover when the pandemic is over and customers are no longer desperate to save money as some are now.Now, yes, you might be able to sell now and reinvest in DDOG, CRWD, FSLY, NET and some others which are seeing tailwinds. You (or one) might make enough in the time it takes for AYX's business to recover to earn enough to cover the tax bill. But we don't know right now when the effects of the pandemic will be blunted enough to reaccelerate enterprise spending on things like Alteryx. Personally, I thought it would be happening already since the ROI is there, so I was also surprised to see that customers on not spending on AYX to gain competitive advantage and to save more money during these hard times.But yesterday's result told me that it would be at least 6 months so I decided that I have a better chance to make money in NET and FSLY (which by the way was down not that much more than AYX from the high.....33% AYX versus 35% for FSLY). Thus, I moved into NET and FSLY (and some cash and GOLD for security) because FSLY (IMO) is only down because of TikTok which I believe will be resolved soon and because NET has phantom revenue which can lead to upside surprises in the next 2 quarters. Meanwhile, AYX will likely flounder (if you believe management's guidance and take on the situation) for at least 2 more quarters. I kept a position in AYX in case I end up being wrong and because I fully intend on reinvesting more in AYX when it's clear that their business is reaccelerating. AYX is planting the new customer seedlings through their extended (but paid for) demo products. So when the recovery happens the expand part of their business should be extremely strong. Chris
Chris, Saul,I followed almost exactly the same game plan as Chris, sold AYX more into FSLY and NET. The thing I am concerned about is that even if the ROI is there, if your customer is going out of business, then it's immaterial. You can't get blood out of a turnip.I did hold a small fraction of a percent in AYX in order to make sure I follow it. It's such a great business with no altneratives to it's product. I expect to return to it one day.Best,bulwnkl
Saul -Like Chris I do not think the error was in keeping some. Reasons were sound, just turned out to be wrong. As you know, it happens. I also agree that if an error was made it was in keeping it to avoid the taxes. Taking that money out and marking it for living expenses probably results in paying less taxes at capital gains rate on the increase is probably less than taking money out of an IRA for living expenses. At least that is what I find. My marginal rate that I pay on a lot of my URA withdrawals exceeds the long term cap gains rate. Not complaining. A good problem to have.Dave
I applaud the honesty of everyone in this thread. This is my first post ever on this board, and I want you to know your F/A has led me to some fabulous swingtrades where I take positions, sell for gains, and keep those gains as FREE shares of the underlying I just traded. ($CRWD, $SHOP, $ROKU, and the mighty $ZM, all banked shares and forgotten. Thanks to you all for the great discussions on those names.) And being a successful trader (but who goes LTBHAF = long term buy hold and forget)I am 90% focused on charts, which would anger most of you here. So, I don't post.As F/A is not my wheelhouse (I practice the art of T/A) I should mention I entered $AYX Friday with others on Twitter. My average buy down price is $123.21. So, I'm only down -1.48% and don't feel the pain of those of you here. While on Twitter, I occasionally run into people who know their F/A and who talk way over my head.This gentleman, Ryan Reeves, with 28,000+ followers and what I guess is an investing service laid a screenshot of a letter sent to his subscribers and shared it with his Twitter followers. In it he slices and dices the way $AYX is now book revenues. I don't know if this board has covered this topic as of yet, and if so, I apologize for cluttering the board. But, I think there are some interesting questions to Ryan which might also be in the minds of readers here. He answers one of them.That said, if you folks have noticed a recent influx of new readers from Twitter, know that I'm the guilty party. I do ask everyone who lands here to always, always, always lurk for a couple of weeks, read the FAQs, and to never junk up the board with one-liners and non-sequiturs as it slows down the reading of F/A types who know their SaaS stuff better than anywhere on the net.Thanks for your work.I am always saying I cannot believe Twitter is free. I have to say the same for this board.Here's the link to Ryan Reeve's thread on $AYX. This thread is about new accounting rule ASC 606. And a reader of Ryan's OP makes a comment about ISFR 15. This may/may not affect other SaaS stocks in your baskets. One of the guys in this thread said "But, for the complete picture, note that all SaaS companies have transitioned to 606. This isn't an Alteryx specific thing and analysts were well aware of it. In any case, I'm long and quadrupled my position on Friday." Well that guy's confidence might be misplaced on the miscue of revenue growth going forward. But, if you guys haven't discussed ASC 606, then this post of mine may hold some value.I'm hoping that if you find this useful, maybe a new discussion on these financial rules can be taken up with a new headline? This discussion looks important enough to me for you F/A types to parse, but then again, maybe you folks have already discussed this ad nauseam and if so, my apologies if this post of mine is beating a dead horse here.ttps://twitter.com/investing_city/status/1291808755160453121p.s. Were I you guys, I'd gravitate to Twitter and set up a private discussion board where members of this board on Fool can share screenshots of specific parts of a quarterly. This is not a suggestion to give up this board and move to Twitter permanently.Twitter doesn't allow for great long posts, or, what I call "free form" thinking in one post like you find here at an end of the month report (about the only things I read here, unless, it's an earnings report.) For instance, a great write up by Saul on Twitter, end of the month, would be a Twitter chain 100 tweets or longer, and, the thread would not flow as it does here on Fool.But what Twitter does allow is the freedom to post specific "visuals" which you cannot do on Fool. If you guys had the ability to come there, post photos (screenshots) of quarterlies, videos by CEOs that open in a feed without the thread disappearing, etc., you will see things more clearly than just the flatness of words.Also, on Twitter, you can then follow Beth, Bert, whoever. Then you open a link in a window next to your twitter account called tweetdeck.com. Tweetdeck is a moving feed of news by people only you follow. So, say Saul realizes there are maybe 20 people out of hundreds here who consistently post the best stock ideas, if Saul were to only follow those people, those people's alerts would flow in his tweetdeck screen in the order they are fashioned. More so, Twitter can alert you to things you may not have thought of: You'll see photos, videos, etc. about your companies once you also follow stocks with the preface of a dollar sign on Twitter. For instance, go to Twitter now. Find the search function. Type in $ZM. That's all. Type in $ZM.The page opening to Zoom will have people who know what they are talking about, and also some flagrant jerks. To get rid of the jerks forever, you block them, and their responses and posts will never clutter your feed again.Best wishes to all of you.
PT,I am 90% focused on charts, which would anger most of you here. So, I don't post.Good that you're following the rules of the board about that. 👍I entered $AYX Friday with others on Twitter. My average buy down price is $123.21. So, I'm only down -1.48% and don't feel the pain of those of you here.I do have to point out your error in this thinking (at least the way it reads to me).You act as though most here are down significantly in AYX because of this most recent drop, compared to you, who are only down -1.5%, and aren't feeling any pain. The only people that are feeling any pain in being down in AYX must have invested in it just in the last 3 months or so (with 2 other short term spikes that could have caused someone to be down at today's level).I've been in AYX for 2.5 years, with the bulk of my position built in the mid $30s, and some continued purchases up to about $110. I've cut my position in half with this most recent release (with the plan/option of adding back to it when they return to high growth), so the only "pain" I'm feeling is just gaining 3.5X my investment on this sale, vs the 5X it was prior. Well, that, and the LT taxes I'll have to pay on some of those positions that weren't in my IRA. Most here (except very new followers) would be in the same boat.No need to shed any tears for the pain we're feeling. 😉
"The only people that are feeling any pain in being down in AYX must have invested in it just in the last 3 months or so (with 2 other short term spikes that could have caused someone to be down at today's level).No need to shed any tears for the pain we're feeling."I'm happy to hear that not everyone got stomped by the precipitous drop in Alteryx's stock price. For those of us who have only recently started being educated by what we've read in this forum (thank you all!!), the re-valuation of Alteryx has been quite painful financially. I believe that in the end the lessons we learn from this experience will prove far more valuable than the price we paid for them.Thanks PT! I greatly appreciate your post, and the many others, who have tried to understand what is going on with Alteryx.A most truly ignorant fool,Larry
>> No need to shed any tears for the pain we're feeling.Anyway, you don't lose unless you sell.
You act as though most here are down significantly in AYX because of this most recent drop, compared to you, who are only down -1.5%, and aren't feeling any pain. The only people that are feeling any pain in being down in AYX must have invested in it just in the last 3 months or so (with 2 other short term spikes that could have caused someone to be down at today's level).Agreed. Selling AYX was almost a no-brainer considering the uncertainty to come, given that it's been almost a triple for me over 2.5 years. I had to fight against my former "sentimentalist" attitude to make the sale, but thanks to the advice and activities on this board I've become more ruthless. The recent "bagger" thread really hit me hard, as I realized in the past I have been far too worried about market timing (who wants to sell on a 25% down day?). In bygone days I would have probably held...then likely held longer as it continued to dive (that's not a prediction of AYX, but it is what has happened to me too many times in the past).In this case what helped is I *had* to sell if I wanted to be able to buy into more promising opportunities, as I'm otherwise almost fully invested. Thankfully the gains will be taxed at long term rates.
Alteryx is a data analytics Saas company. The 2 major reasons why companies use Alteryx are for data analytics and optimization. With the drag and drop UI and the lightning fast speed, Alteryx lowers the learning curve for data analytics and makes data can be handled more efficiently. However, the only problem for Alteryx is that the software licenses are very expensive comparing to other tools. For example, python is the most accessible data analytics open source, which is free. Alteryx is also very suitable in workflow automation and process optimization. For example, sending a daily sales report to VP's email or blending transactional data and sanction list to block the potential money laundry. However, these works can be done manually or many other methods. I do see few obstacles for Alteryx during Covid as 1. Costly 2. Data analytics usually does not generate the profit for a company so the ROI is low 3. Workflow automation is not essential from a company perspective and the companies are mostly conservative to fully automate their core function. With the above reasons I sold out all my position after Q1 earning calls. Walunbi
Walunbi1. Expensive is an interesting word. Expensive versus MS Excel? Expensive vs the value a company gets from using AYX solutions?2. Data systems integration is the single greatest opportunity finder for a company to generate additional profit in the value chain or to minimize leakage from waste centers. Profit and losses are exposed here.3. After stability, taking redundant tasks and cycle time extending processes out in favor of automation are exactly what shortens the feedback loop and increases flexibility in processes (see #2)
1. Expensive is an interesting word. Expensive versus MS Excel? Expensive vs the value a company gets from using AYX solutions?Not to mention [in]expensive compared to having to have professional data scientists on staff to achieve the same analyses.
"Not to mention [in]expensive compared to having to have professional data scientists on staff to achieve the same analyses."I know a young professional who got a Masters degree in Econ, which may as well have been a trade school for SAS Institute data analytics. Took a job with an AIG mortgage insurance company. Laid off, of course.The moment he posted his resume the offers started coming in. He took a temp job at a big five bank for $50 an hour. Years later, as a full timer working on CECL and CCAR, the bank is probably out $150,000+ a year. That puts the $4000 license in its proper context.If any of you are in banking and would like to discuss privately the use of AYX in the industry, and prospects for making more inroads, maybe we could bring some new insights to the board.Off topic, but interesting:This young graduate attended his orientation at the AIG affiliate, and immediately asked his boss "Why would we insure mortgages when the borrower has bad credit and doesn't have to prove his income." The boss scoffed at his concern. Let's never let our enthusiasm for a desired result overcome our common sense.
2. Data systems integration is the single greatest opportunity finder for a company to generate additional profit in the value chain or to minimize leakage from waste centers. Profit and losses are exposed here.GDavenport - I really like the way you said this.I put companies into 2 categories:1 - companies already using AYX. They clearly understand how it can help generate additional profits and prevent losses. To these companies AYX is essential and they are increasing their usage. I have friends at large multi-national companies that confirm increased reliance on AYX during the pandemic.2 - companies not yet using AYX. These companies don't yet fully appreciate the P&L implications of using a tool like AYX offers. Many are in survival mode and most are deferring costs regardless. This is the short term headwind. In the long term, as budgets open up and these companies learn from their peers about the benefits of AYX, they will adopt AYX or similar tools.ClydeJ
Best Of |
Favorites & Replies |
Start a New Board |
My Fool |