Skip to main content
No. of Recommendations: 1
You are certainly applying logic to this issue. I appreciate that. Let me try to reply with some of my thoughts:

>>did the people you spoke with say Ghawar is in fine shape? Do they not have any concerns with it depleting soon? Just curious.

No, they did not make such a reassuring statement. There are always concerns about when it will deplete, if nothing else the Saudis consider this a legacy asset to benefit their children and descendants. The boogie I am trying to wrestle with, is an insinuation that Ghawar is similar to a field in Oman which has been damaged by mis-management. If indeed this is what Simmons is saying, then I allege he has incomplete informantion and should know better. But from this board I cannot identify if this rumor is behing Simmons' pessimism.

>>That said, if you say that he has an agenda (his energy consulting business) then it's just as fair to say that Lee Raymond and the Saudi Royal family have an agenda, too (not spooking the market into developing competing sources of energy).

Do you really think this is a fair comparison? A consultant who has no scare to sell, basically has nothing in comparison. Any owner of a massive supply of oil, on the other hand, has a whole lot of asset even IF alternative energy is developed.

Where we probably disagree is the meaning of alternative energy. It seems you think it would *replace* oil energy, so much it would harm the interests of the oil business. What I think is, oil is going to be in shortage anyway we look at it, and therefore we CRAVE enough alternative energy to fill the gap. Under those circumstances one might not want to squelch non-oil alternatives. Besides, big oil could very well *want* to diversify themselves into the alternative energy as well. They will be looking for businesses good enough to replace whatever they cannot invest profitably in oil.

Scalability is a key trait of any technology. I think we will find problems scaling most alternative energy forms, up to the size of oil today. I still think LNG is more scalable and available than coal or any of the alternatives I know of. It is a more known technology than clean coal, cheaper and less frightening (to most people) than nuclear energy, etc. But it lacks the gee-whiz factor of solar, wind, all the technologies which laymen *imagine* will revolutionize the world.

Bet on evolution, bet against revolution, that's what I say.

Best of luck -- C44

Print the post  


What was Your Dumbest Investment?
Share it with us -- and learn from others' stories of flubs.
When Life Gives You Lemons
We all have had hardships and made poor decisions. The important thing is how we respond and grow. Read the story of a Fool who started from nothing, and looks to gain everything.
Contact Us
Contact Customer Service and other Fool departments here.
Work for Fools?
Winner of the Washingtonian great places to work, and Glassdoor #1 Company to Work For 2015! Have access to all of TMF's online and email products for FREE, and be paid for your contributions to TMF! Click the link and start your Fool career.