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You may be a bit overly bearish long term, though I agree near term... As for a permanent loss of capital if you invested near the top I agree - just like if you invested in Yahoo, EMC, etc in 1999. I'm thinking the signs of market stability will bring a massive rally - similar to the 1000 point gain we saw mid-October - but that rally will only bring the dow to the low 9000's by the end of next year. I'm thinking it'll cross 10,000 again sometime the year following (2010) ... as for 10 years from now who knows, the dow could go to 20,000 as the dollar loses over half its value; it could stay roughly the same; there may be an entirely new bubble in place or the bottom of the next bear market. I would expect at least a temporary rally to bring us close to 12 again in the next decade - and we'll have to decide at the time if it seems sustainable or if it's just the early-mid 70's all over again.

-John T
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