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You should actually read the piece. As an AZ resident who is very involved in the grass roots battles with Sinema, I find the analysis to reflect what we are seeing very accurately.

I did read the piece. And I know her approval with Democrats is in the toilet. Right now, the Democrats have just finished implementing the plan that progressives have been calling for in dealing with Sinema and Manchin - drive up the political pain for them, attack them in their home jurisdictions, and surely they will end up changing their minds. Of course, that didn't work - but the damage is still done. If the primary election were held tomorrow, and Gallego (or someone else that had a good name recognition) were on the ballot, she'd almost certainly lose.

But it's not. The election is two and a half years away. By that time, the immediacy of the current battles will be long, long gone. Between now and the end of 2022, the Democrats are going to need lots of votes from Sinema - on whatever piece of BBB ends up being brought forward, on lots of judicial appointments, on the debt ceiling and government funding bills, and lots of other matters big and small. Two years is an eternity in politics, and she'll have plenty of opportunities to rebuild her brand somewhat.

More importantly, of course, is that voters are motivated as much (if not more) by antipathy for the opposing party as love for their candidates. Admittedly, the GOP is better at this than the Democrats - the aphorism that Democrats fall in love while Republicans fall in line has some truth to it. But Democrats in 2024 are going to want to defeat Republicans - more than anything else, full stop. Unless Sinema draws an opponent that can do that - and in a red-purple state a deeply progressive candidate will have trouble articulating a path to doing that - more than 8% of Democrats are going to be fully on board with Sinema when 2024 rolls around.

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