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https://zeihan.com/the-inflating-of-fears/

Most of the world’s investment capital comes from people who are on the cusp of retirement.
Collectively the Boomer generation of the world is the largest generation our species has ever generated, and they, on average, retire next year. Capital has never been as easy to access or on cheaper terms as it will be in this calendar year.
America, and a few other lucky countries, are experiencing this capital surge and record growth at the same time.

For the rest of the world, they are missing the last global capital boom of our lives. Most of the global Boomer cadre did not have kids. Which means that as they age they will instead absorb capital from their respective systems in the form of higher health care and pensions costs, while never again paying into those systems. Those costs of capital won’t simply increase by end-2022, they’ll skyrocket.
The United States, France and New Zealand are the only exceptions to these patterns in the advanced world. The Boomers in those three countries had kids.


Folks, this is it. Globalization is over. Even if the Americans decided that they wanted to continue to patrol the world, even if the Americans could keep making the world safe for international trade, global demographics and global capital tell us the page has already turned. Global aging meant that global consumption and investment was always going to collapse this decade, and then coronavirus moved the end forward. Most countries will never recover economically to where they were at the beginning of 2020 when the health crisis struck. And now countries must deal with the intertwined nightmares of a collapse in global consumption, rising economic nationalism in the small handful of countries that retain decent demographic structures, and a high inflation environment triggered by the American recovery.

Map: Where the world's population is growing and shrinking
https://www.axios.com/world-population-countries-growing-shr...

Portugal, Spain, Germany, All of Eastern Europe, Russia & yes China too face population declines.
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https://www.dw.com/en/global-population-decline-will-hit-chi...

Global population decline will hit China hard

Tesla CEO Elon Musk and Alibaba founder Jack Ma, sat down for their first public debate, they differed on nearly everything. The one thing the billionaire businessmen did agree on was the biggest problem facing the world in the future — not enough people.

China's population is expected to peak in 2031, while the populations of Japan and South Korea are projected to decline after 2020.

Because of the sheer pace of aging, China appears doomed to get old before it gets rich.

https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/012315/how-d...

How Do Demographics Drive the Economy?
There is a straightforward relationship when identifying the sources of economic growth:
Growth rate of gross domestic product (GDP) = Growth rate of population + growth rate of GDP per capita
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Most of the global Boomer cadre did not have kids.


That's tough to believe.

If true the global population would have shrunk a lot.

Actually, it's grown a lot and is still growing a lot.

Musk has how many kids? 5? Of course he's not going to admit there are too many people already.
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...

MrP: That's tough to believe.


Boomers had lots of kids ... some (including me) would say too damn many!*** it's their kids Generation X that took full advantage of the invention of "the Pill".

Tim

*** I had two brothers and five sisters.
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As Zeihan has stated plenty of kids born in USA.
Populations do not decline immediately but demographics do foretell the future.
China's one child policy did not have an immediate impact. But 30 years later has caused a shrink in China's work force.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/datablog/2015/oct/29/impac...

Compare USA population estimate versus Germany, Russia, China, Italy or Brazil.
https://www.populationpyramid.net/united-states-of-america/2...
Compare to Germany
https://www.populationpyramid.net/germany/
Russia
https://www.populationpyramid.net/russian-federation/2020/
China
https://www.populationpyramid.net/china/2020/
Italy
https://www.populationpyramid.net/italy/2020/
Brazil
https://www.populationpyramid.net/brazil/2020/
Now of course Africa's population will continue to grow. But little is produced or consumed there due to the poverty there. No investment capital will flow there. Africa is a drag on the world economy.

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/22/world/global-population-s...
Long Slide Looms for World Population, With Sweeping Ramifications
All over the world, countries are confronting population stagnation and a fertility bust, a dizzying reversal unmatched in recorded history that will make first-birthday parties a rarer sight than funerals, and empty homes a common eyesore.

Maternity wards are already shutting down in Italy. Ghost cities are appearing in northeastern China. Universities in South Korea can’t find enough students, and in Germany, hundreds of thousands of properties have been razed, with the land turned into parks.

South Korea’s fertility rate dropped to a record low of 0.92 in 2019 — less than one child per woman, the lowest rate in the developed world.
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https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/976607.shtml

China will face severe demographic challenges in the next 15 years as the country's working-age population is predicted to shrink from last year's 66.3 percent to 56.9 percent of the total in 2030.

The aging population will swell from 16.1 to 25.2 percent which could seriously test China's social and economic development, experts said.

The number of those aged between 16 and 59 will decrease to 896 million in 2020 and 824 million in 2030, while those aged 60 and over will grow to 253 million in 2020 and 365 million in 2030, according to new data provided by the Population and Development Studies Center at the Renmin University of China to the Global Times on Tuesday.
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Yes China's population is set to shrink as the single child generation, and the few of their single kids who are female, reach child bearing age. But that's great for them as they will be scarce workers, should command good pay - and pressure to pollute both China and the world should recede as the population stops growing. Win Win Win.


Now of course Africa's population will continue to grow.

Yes and growing so fast it completely outweighs all countries that have very slightly reducing populations. Global population is still increasing at 75 million a year.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_the_world#Popu...


But little is produced or consumed there due to the poverty there.

Well, plenty of mining going on. But poverty yes, and with the ever increasing populations they can't grow their economies fast enough to get out of poverty. So what's in store ... vast unhappy overflowing populations watching Hollywood movies and hearing how some European countries are the happiest on earth ... migration probably isn't even into second gear yet ...



In case of interest, the Global Times is the Chinese Communist Party's major international propaganda outlet. Not everything in it is going to be false ... but not everything in it is going to be impartial either.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_Times
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In case of interest, the Global Times is the Chinese Communist Party's major international propaganda outlet. Not everything in it is going to be false ... but not everything in it is going to be impartial either.

And yet they admit their work force will be shrinking.

Yes China's population is set to shrink as the single child generation, and the few of their single kids who are female, reach child bearing age. But that's great for them as they will be scarce workers, should command good pay - and pressure to pollute both China and the world should recede as the population stops growing. Win Win Win.

Higher pay means international corporations will be moving factories to lower cost nations.

Already happening as some factories are moving to Vietnam.

https://www.cosmosourcing.com/blog/moving-manufacturing-from...
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/why-so-many-foreign-businesse...
https://tfipost.com/2020/04/as-companies-flee-china-vietnam-...

Mexico is also attracting Chinese factories. Covid-19 has pointed out the folly of supply chain disruption. Likely the USA international corporations are looking at Mexico. Competitive wages due to rising Chinese wages & Mexico is a short truck trip away.
https://themazatlanpost.com/2020/02/20/at-least-10-companies...
https://mexiconewsdaily.com/news/chinese-manufacturers-move-...
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US generations
Boomer-72 million
Generation X-65 million
Millennials-72.6 million
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Generation_X#/media/File:US_li...
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US generations
Boomer-72 million
Generation X-65 million
Millennials-72.6 million
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Generation_X#/media/File:US_li......


Sure but the link shows boomers are a 18-year contingent, the others only 15 years.

So per year on average:

4 million Boomers (72/18)
4.33 million Gen X (65/15)
4.84 million Millenials (72.6/15)
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Sure but the link shows boomers are a 18-year contingent, the others only 15 years.
So per year on average...


I've lost track of what we're tracking, but shouldn't there be a total population correction?

DB2
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 US generations
Boomer-72 million
Generation X-65 million
Millennials-72.6 million

I was attempting to show US population will not be affected by population decline.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/241488/population-of-the...
https://www.statista.com/statistics/454349/population-by-age...
Let’s compare US & Germany
40 to 59 in age: US-82.67 million. Germany-23.6 million
25 to 39 in age: US-67.66 million. Germany-15.86 million
20 to 24 in age: US-21.63 million. Germany-3.73 million
15 to 19 in age: US-21.06 million. Germany-5.53 million

These numbers suggest the death of an ethnic German nation. Of course Germany will continue to exist. They will require massive numbers of immigrants whose diverse cultures will eventually extinguish the German culture.

The same fate will occur to Italy:
https://www.statista.com/statistics/789270/population-in-ita...
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 US generations
Boomer-72 million
Generation X-65 million
Millennials-72.6 million

I was attempting to show US population will not be affected by population decline.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/241488/population-of-the...
https://www.statista.com/statistics/454349/population-by-age...
Let’s compare US & Germany
40 to 59 in age: US-82.67 million. Germany-23.6 million
25 to 39 in age: US-67.66 million. Germany-15.86 million
20 to 24 in age: US-21.63 million. Germany-3.73 million
15 to 19 in age: US-21.06 million. Germany-5.53 million

These numbers suggest the death of an ethnic German nation.
 Of course Germany will continue to exist. They will require 
massive numbers of immigrants whose diverse cultures will eventually extinguish the German culture.

The same fate will occur to Italy:
https://www.statista.com/statistics/789270/population-in-ita...

Xxxxxxx
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Let’s compare US & Germany
40 to 59 in age: US-82.67 million. Germany-23.6 million
25 to 39 in age: US-67.66 million. Germany-15.86 million
20 to 24 in age: US-21.63 million. Germany-3.73 million
15 to 19 in age: US-21.06 million. Germany-5.53 million


According to Worldometer, the population of Germany is a tiny touch over 84 million, whereas the US population is a tinier touch over 331 million.

So converting the age breakdowns above to percentages:

40 to 59 in age: US-25%. Germany-28%
25 to 39 in age: US-20%. Germany-19%
20 to 24 in age: US-6.5%. Germany-4.4%
15 to 19 in age: US-6.4%. Germany-6.5%

(No, those don't add up to 100%. Persons under 15 or 60+ aren't in the list.)

Not a huge difference... but enough to be significant.

As of 2020, the "natural population growth rate" - births minus deaths, as a percentage of population, no adjustment for people moving in/out of a country - for Germany was -0.20%. Yes, that's a negative number, meaning that if it weren't for migrations Germany (like several other industrialized nations) would be declining in population. For the US, it was +0.30%.
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Yes, that's a negative number, meaning that if it weren't for migrations Germany (like several other industrialized nations) would be declining in population.

Yep it is the immigration flow that is maintains Germany’s population.
The United Nations Population Fund lists Germany as host to the third-highest number of international migrants worldwide, behind the United States and Saudi Arabia.
In 2019, 588,401 (75.6%) children were born to mothers with German citizenship, while 189,689 (24.4%) children were born to mothers with foreign citizenship.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Germany

https://worldpopulationreview.com/countries/germany-populati...
According to current projections, Germany’s population is expected to peak at the end of 2021 with 83.9 million people. By the end of the century, Germany’s population is expected to fall to 74.73 million people. Because of this, Great Britain and France will both surpass Germany’s population.

Germany will need to concentrate educating those immigrant children to take over the upcoming shortage of skilled job workers.
https://www.dw.com/en/germany-faces-huge-shortage-of-skilled...
https://themunicheye.com/german-engineering-skill-shortage-h...
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Germany will need to concentrate educating those immigrant children to take over the upcoming shortage of skilled job workers.

To the best of my knowledge Germany has had a very large number of guest workers since shortly after WWII. They needed them to replace the 8 million men who never returned from WWII. Of course Guest workers had few rights and German citizenship was (is?) based on who your parents are rather than where you were born.

Not long after the Wall came down a large population of "Russian Germans" moved into our neighborhood. They were descendants of Germans who had moved to Russia long ago to work for Peter the Great and originally lived in special German communities until Stalin put a stop to that. They never the less qualified to return to Germany as German citizens which horrified a couple of my German neighbors. One friend called them Auslander forgetting that I to was an Auslander. }};-D

She would have been even more horrified if she saw how many of them moved into the former Canadian military housing in Lahr after our guys packed up and moved out rather quickly after the wall came down. This is something we learned after WWI when the Brits discovered they could use the Canadians to try to rescue the Czar and his family from the Communists ... of course it was already too late.

Tim
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...if it weren't for migrations Germany (like several other industrialized nations) would be declining in population. For the US, it was +0.30%.

Warrl,

I don't know how accurate are the numbers for Germany, but I can assure you that the US population is increasing at a rate greater than the "official" US immigration rate.

The videos coming from the US border with Mexico suggest that anyone who wants can just walk across the Rio Grande/Rio Bravo del Norte and expand the US population.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B20GIlUUUBY&ab_channel=K...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zvqIudeS5vs&ab_channel=A...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rio_Grande

Now that enforcement has been relaxed, unlimited numbers of children, elderly, sick, poor, tired, and hungry people are welcome at our southern border. Accordingly, the US is once again living up to the inscription on the Statue of Liberty:

...Give me your tired, your poor,
Your huddled masses yearning to breathe free,
The wretched refuse of your teeming shore.
Send these, the homeless, tempest-tost to me...


https://poets.org/poem/new-colossus?gclid=CjwKCAjwiLGGBhAqEi...

So long as the tired, the poor, the sick, and the homeless are welcome, the US population will continue to grow (at some unknown rate, anyway). Therefore, it's unlikely the US will ever find itself in the situation in which Germany and Japan find themselves.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aging_of_Japan#:~:text=Japan%2....

It's more difficult for Americans to get into fortress Washington, D.C. than it is for aliens to get into the United States from Mexico.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qs7Aasm1-6Q&ab_channel=A...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YpikNEXy6HY&ab_channel=A...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zvpAiw8YKH8&ab_channel=B...

But hey, look at the bright side. Some of those tired, poor people may help relieve the worker shortage the US faces at the present moment.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hcz3utO7AoY&ab_channel=C...
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Immigration:
https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2021/06/ca...

At the above link is a 9 minute PBS video on Open Borders from opposing macroeconomic viewpoints. The Paul Salomen report starts 43 seconds into the video. I believe it is a balanced factual report that spells out the opposing positions well. Unlikely to change anyone's opinion.
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I don't know how accurate are the numbers for Germany, but I can assure you that the US population is increasing at a rate greater than the "official" US immigration rate.

Well, considering that I showed that the population would be increasing WITHOUT current immigration, that would necessarily be true.

I did not talk about the immigration rate, official or otherwise.
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