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See Zogby tracking shows Kerry closer than Gore
http://boards.fool.com/Message.asp?mid=21521592

From http://electoral-vote.com/

Now let's take a quick look at the national Zogby tracking poll. This poll is especially interesting because the 2000 data for the same period is available. Kerry has now edged into the lead, holding a statistically insignificant 1% lead over Bush. Also noteworthy is that Ralph Nader has picked up a bit of support and could once again throw the election to Bush. Here is the 2004 data.

Candidate E-10 E-9 E-8 E-7 E-6 E-5 E-4 Final
Kerry 46% 45% 46% 47% 46% 47% 47%
Bush 48% 48% 49% 48% 48% 47% 46%
Nader 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 2%
Other 1% 1% 1% 0% 1% 2% 2%
Undecided 4% 5% 3% 3% 4% 3% 3%

Now let's compare these results to 2000. Here are the corresponding numbers for 2000. The sums are not 100% due to roundoff error. Comparing these two tables, Kerry is in a far better position than Gore was at this point in 2000. Not only is he not trailing by 4%, he is actually slightly ahead. On the other hand, there are few undecideds left because they have already broken for the challenger, as they usually do.

Candidate E-10 E-9 E-8 E-7 E-6 E-5 E-4 Final
Gore 43% 42% 42% 41% 42% 42% 42% 48.38%
Bush 44% 45% 45% 46% 45% 45% 46% 47.87%
Nader 5% 5% 5% 4% 5% 5% 6% 2.74%
Other 1% 1% 1% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1.01%
Undecided 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 0.00%

It's all about turnout now. Which ever side is more committed will win.

Peter

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