Quite a few years ago, David Gardner had recommended a stock and a few days later some event sent the price down a lot. It was a tech stock with a lot of employee stock compensation. He then recommended that Fools not buy the "dip" and to avoid the stock. I really can't remember if he made a sell rec. He talked about broken stocks at that time, its effect on employees and the length of time for the stock to maybe recover. Anyway, others have talked about stocks being broken whether or not the company was broken.Also, with regard to stocks that have taken a big hit, we know the "3-day rule" for waiting to buy a large dip. With ZS, I am in the camp that the stock is broken but the company is not. ZS certainly looks like a good buy here. I like to look at charts, though I have no TA expertise. I do have a standard chart that includes 20, 100, and 200 day moving averages and I do at least note whether they have crossed and do pay attention to the 200-day average. I kind of figure that if the price has fallen below the 200-day then that is one indication of a broken stock. During the first half of Augest, ZS sliced through the 20 and 100 day averages and last week it settled below the 200 before the drop this week to the level that preceded the 2/28-3/1 gap up (that gap has now been filled). There is another metric that I have noted, and that has to do with the trading volume for the price drop. ZS's was 26 million shares the day after earnings but had been preceded by 3 or 4 high volume days of lower prices. Anyway, the metric is that the trading volume on subsequent days ought to match that of the "big drop day." The sum of the above is telling me that it is not yet time to buy ZS. The four days prior to earnings totaled 20 million shares--about 2.5 times normal. We've had about 12 million shares traded. That, plus the ever present tweet risk make me leery of buying today, before the weekend. I might buy back around 15% of the shares I sold pre-ER--do that towards end of the day. That's almost following 3-day rule and if ZS should recover Monday I'll give myself an attaboy and I'll still eel o.k. should ZS continue drift lower as the market soaks up the 25 to 50 million "down volume" shares traded before and immediately after the ER.The company performance looks good to me for all the reasons discussed here and on other boards and by "other pundits". I expect to be fully reinvested by the end of next week--TBD. Of other stocks that I have mentioned, most are near the 200-day and seem to be holding above that level. THat includes MDB, OKTA, TTD, AYX, ESTC. SMAR and SQ, ..., UGH!, I am out of both.One that I am looking at is ANET. If we go retro to 1yrPEG, that number is about 0.5, do your own diligence but I think that is what I came up with looking at 12 quarters. I am over 30% cash and wanting to get back into CRWD and TTD and add to those that are holding near 200-day average. TWLO looks broken so not planning to go there for awhile though I am o.k. with the company. ROKU, I want, but price anchored a bit after my shares were called away.KC
I think we see the patterns we want to see. But we are all just making it up as we go, otherwise...you could just be a billionaire in a year if we knew exactly the best bets to make and when.Listening to a sports show years ago, a guy made a comment that I just love, and can't seem to find it attributed elsewhere, so maybe he made it up:"We are all just monkeys throwing rocks at the moon"Love it.Makes me think of the Quest for Fire movie in early 80s, or the scene from 2001 space odyssey or I think it was one of the recent Alien prequels.I take it to mean we are just reacting, in probably irrational ways, to machinations we can't understand.So I try to make it simple.Momentum drove these too high. Obvious in hindsight, but I did feel this way for quite a while, whether it was marveling at TTD hitting $250, or selling MDB at $133 in March on their massive move, or being frustrated at how high ZM, CRWD, and WORK stock debuts were. Even today, NET (Cloudflare) doesn't seem to have learned any lessons, and I am staying far away from that.Ok...so momentum got out of hand.How to value them? Do some napkin math, picture them a couple of years out; what kind of revenue, are they profitable at all, what is mkt cap with a more conservative P/S at that point? Add it all up, and see if you have a decent CAGR. I don't have a set-in-stone CAGR, but I think anything you model that gives you 25% or higher is good. Then ask how long do you really really plan on holding; closing your eyes and holding 5 years no matter what, or until you make X% gains, or maybe it is just trade around a core holding until it gets near your goal at which point you either sell or make new goals based on new info.Finally...would anyone benefit from buying this company? How much would they likely pay to have this company, not only to add/ramp those sales within their own corporation, but also to perhaps remove a competitor? So I look at ZS and I just know Cisco and others would happily pay $6b for ZS...although ZS mgmt isn't likely selling anywhere near that number. That provides a stock floor, imo.Oracle CEO resigning...been a dinosaur stock for ages...so what is MDB worth?In the ad spend world, where titans have been made (FB, GOOGL, and cable tv giants, etc) what kind of value does TTD have? $10b? Would a privacy-loving company like Apple benefit from further poking Google and FB in the eye about privacy and by buying TTD and pushing privacy-friendly ad buys throughout the industry? Probably never happen, but you get the point. These companies are more valuable than 10x their sales, imo.I don't know what to do with rest of my cash. May spend it today or wait. I think I will know the oppty when I see it, and if I don't catch the absolute bottom, hopefully I am not too far off.Dreamer <--- just a monkey throwing rocks at the moon.
'...the monkey's confused.'- Roger Waters
What I've seen from this sector rotation is growth stocks going back to fill either fill gaps or to a demand level. The demand level is a period where there is relatively stable price before an upward trend. Sometimes, the price may fall to this level, and if it rebounds back up, reaffirms the area of support. I've looked at a few charts on the tickers most often discussed on these boards and I'll try to describe where I think a good entry might be. AYX: Has a lot of room to drop and base may be at 91. Weekly chart shows RSI has been in the oversold area since the beginning of June. On the daily, the demand started on June 6 where it went from 86 to 147. There has been huge selling volume on multiple consecutive days and has much to go. The weekly RSI is only at 52 and has room below. TTD: I see 2 levels to watch, 200 and 173. On the daily chart, there is a demand level at 195 where prices have rebounded from 173 several times (twice in March and once in May). The price from March to June has been in the 200 channel. Break 200, then the next level is 173. Below 173 is a gap down to 150. What I've learned from TA is think of gaps as magnets that exerts a pulling force on the price. MDB: Daily chart shows price is at the top of the gap from March 14, at 123. Below this gap is demand level 100. Breaking down the chart into closer into 4 hr, 2 hr, and 1 hr charts and looking at volume shows price is likely to fill this gap to 100. OKTA: Daily chart shows OKTA in a support zone now that is likely to break. Below is a demand level at 92 when in April OKTA began a run to 140. ZS: ZS gapped down which filled a gap from March and at a demand level 48. We need to see if this area holds, and if it doesn't, the next demand level is at 42. SQ: Daily chart shows SQ gapped down and fell to demand level at 57 from Jan 2019. This is also a level in May 2018 when SQ ran to 100 in Sep 2018. This is the 3rd time SQ is at this price and the close on 09/13 shows that a reversal may be taking place. SMAR: Daily chart shows SMAR at demand level 38 and attempting a reversal. SMAR rebounded from 38 twice, April 09 and June 04. We need to see the reversal make a trend to break 44 and 46. Otherwise, the next demand level is at 26 in Jan when the price was a channel.
Correction: TTD: I see 2 levels to watch, 200 and 173. On the daily chart, there is a demand level from a 195-200 channel than ran from March to May. Seem like on Sep 10, 11, and 12, the price rose only to get back into Bollinger Band. The spread was very narrow, which you can see by the small body, and not a good sign. Break 200, then the next important level to watch is 173. 173 is the top of a gap that goes down to 150. What I've learned from TA is to think of gaps as magnets that exert a pulling force on the price. What closely for a gap fill.
Sold my TLRA on todays bump to raise cash to 22%.Just in case more downside in my core remains.Long ttd estc zs ayx mdbDreamer
AYX: After examining the chart further, I see an area of soft support from 102-104. There was a short channel that began an uptrend on Jun 14 and price rebounded off this line on Jun 26. Today's green close may be a bull trap. Need to see watch the action over the next few days.
AYX: Heading to soft support at 102-104. Looks like this will break as buying volume cannot break highs prior on buying wave. Looking to land at 91. TTD: Action same as AYX - buying volume failed to break high on prior buying wave. Possible gap fill to 149. MDB: Same. In gap area and looking to land in 101-104 area. OKTA: Same. Looks like heading to 87-92. ZS: May be a positive around on 30 minute chart. Good small entry here. SQ: Good run since gap fill. Gap up to 59.83 and soft touch on 09/27 with high breaking prior buying wave. Good entry here. SMAR: Broke support at 38 and couldn't make a reversal. Looking to land at 26.
SQ: Down past 2 days to fill the gap. As I mentioned before, gaps are like magnets. I'm using the Weis wave method on 1 hr charts to analyze selling and buying waves. The selling wave to fill the gap took a lot more volume than prior selling wave, which means a lot more effort spent to bring the stock down. Once filled, a bounce immediately occurred. In contrast, the buying wave/volume needed for a new high was less that prior buying wave, meaning buyers have more control. What we need to see next is this new buying wave break 62.95. Resistance is at 63.46, which is natural to see a little pull back. Good entry here.
MDB: Good small entry here. I see a divergent selling pattern, meaning the price fell much further on a smaller selling volume compared to prior volume. There is also decreasing selling volume waves. The divergent pattern, along with decreased selling volumes, means market is pretty much done selling. In converse, I see higher highs on smaller buying volumes, which means buyers are gaining control.
PINS and ROKU starting to make a reversal. Same pattern as described in MDB above.
OKTA: Same. Looks like heading to 87-92. 10/03: OKTA bounced off 93.50 nicely. Look for resistance at 115.80 and support 111.45. If you entered, I'd wait to see how the next 2 dips look to see if there is a "no interest" selling signal for continued uptrend. GL
NORTH STAR INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT CORP. 125 $12,000 0.00 797 125 13F 2019-09-30 2019-10-03FIRST HAWAIIAN BANK(PRN) 18,000 $38,000 0.00 799 18,000 13F 2019-09-30 2019-10-03Institutions that reported filing 13F for OKTA. Should help with upward continuation.
10/03 MDB: Good small entry here. I see a divergent selling pattern, meaning the price fell much further on a smaller selling volume compared to prior volume. There is also decreasing selling volume waves. The divergent pattern, along with decreased selling volumes, means market is pretty much done selling. In converse, I see higher highs on smaller buying volumes, which means buyers are gaining control. 10/03 MDB end of day comment: Good increase in PS on small volume. Broke resistance at 129 and may see a pullback to test this as support. Next resistance 138.50. Look for next few cycles (selling / buying waves) to break 136.60, and this holds well, MDB likely to "push through" 138.50. Sorry for the choppy, individual posts but I analyze each stock individually. Thanks all.
SMAR: Broke support at 38 and couldn't make a reversal. Looking to land at 26. Update 10/03SMAR: Divergent selling signal detected on 1 hr chart, which means a reversal likely, occurring with a bounce from 35. Resistance at 39.65, and a pull back likely to occur as buying wave is reaching a peak. Good momentum. May cycle a couple times, but it holds 39 well then likely to push through 39.65.
Zs estc and ttd are the 3 most interesting stocks to look at.:) How are those looking technical-wise?Dreamer
ZS: In the process of reversal. Cross a pivot point at 48.50, which I'm seeing some selling starting to occur as buying wave is reaching exhaustion. Likely to test 48.50 which looks like it may hold. Next R (resistance) 50.60. ESTC: Divergent selling signal just flashed. Current buying wave PS past last buying wave high. Wait for a pullback near support 78.80. If reversal is seen before reaching support, I'd enter. Will cycle up and down in uptrend to pivot point 86.40. Looks promising for uptrend as Elliot wave (sentiment) on 1 hr chart is just about to turn positive (at inflection point). TTD: Broke through support at 201.90 APPEARS to be in the process of reversal. There is a gap at 175 all the way down to 158, which will "pull like a magnet". Need to stay discipline, control the FOMO, and see the price go and stay above 196 where there is a demand channel from 196-202. Also, to make a "bullish piercing candle" on the weekly, the price needs to be above 196 by tomorrow, which is not likely as this buying wave is near exhaustion.
Interestingly, CAMPBELL CAPITAL MANAGEMENT INC opened at new position in TTD with filing of 13F on 10/01. 22,059 Shares = $4,137,000I would still hold and be sure that the gravity of the gap below has less influence. P.S. The numbers I post are not exact numbers but points to take note.
TTD: Good small entry here. Today was a good test with SPY and QQQ both taking a dip. Selling wave today couldn't make a new low, which shows strength. TTD has been through few cycles with higher highs and higher lows, slowly marching away from the gap at 175. Still practice caution, though. Looks like the market will take another dip in the morning with SPY and QQQ next selling wave rolling in. TTD may test the low 189 again.
ELLEVEST, INC. filed a 13F on 10/08/2019 to open a new position in TTD, purchasing 6,816 shares for a total value of $1,278,000https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1644128/000138713119...Taking a closer look at TTD this morning and realized that there was a "no interest selling" signal on the last selling wave which dipped to 185. Sellers could have taken TTD down further but no sellers, hence the signal. TTD went on to create a new high 195. The next selling wave took TTD down to 189, which is higher than last selling wave low 185. Higher highs, higher lows = uptrend. The advantage of using the Weis Wave method is being able to determine supply vs demand and an indirect way to follow institutions. The Weis method flows in the direction of order flow for the security. Good luck all.
ZS: Last selling wave was much stronger but could not make a new low (higher low still). There is a BASE at 46.10 Futures positive this morning which will help. SUPPORT at 46.90 looks good as selling wave nears exhaustion. Pivot at 48.33 and resistance 50.66 which I think ZS may break this week. There is a beginnings of an uptrend forming and a strong buying wave should make a new high (last 50.56). ESTC: Buying wave rushed in with authority from low 77.60 to new high 87.31. Selling wave took ESTC to 84.09, but still a higher low. Look for upward continuation to resistance at 88.60. Resistance may hold as momentum needs to build to past this point. Again, good luck all.
TTD: A picture is worth a thousand words. Here is a visual explanation of what I've been describing. https://www.tradingview.com/x/qw0L4YZ2/I'm going to limit my post as I don't want to become a nuisance.
I'm going to limit my post as I don't want to become a nuisance.This lurker likes your TA posts, not good at it myself but enjoyyour explanations. JT
I didn't put the pivot points, resistance, and support levels as I thought having more indicators on the chart would be too much. On vacation from work this week. Please let me know that I can chart for you all. TY
ZS: https://www.tradingview.com/x/HwhrddgX/ESTC: https://www.tradingview.com/x/w11XqFQI/
Bill - I dig the TA and the perspective you provide. So, keep posting. But what is PS that's shown of the charts? Thanks.Lead
PS = price per shareI'll post a follow-up on both ESTC, TTD & ZS tomorrow morning. I'll try to organize it on one page and will give different perspectives to emphasize points (if needed).
Trade talks deteriorating and Futures are red. Please understand that movement in any particular stock cannot be entirely determined by charting. Understanding the market environment, however, can help prepare for any potential movement. SPYhttps://www.tradingview.com/x/Ft1zYiD7/QQQhttps://www.tradingview.com/x/7QDr2Vmq/TTD:30 Minute Chart:https://www.tradingview.com/x/gPiabvpF/30 Minute Chart with Pivot:https://www.tradingview.com/x/VnA5RWIG/ESTC: 30 Minute Chart:https://www.tradingview.com/x/pqz8WdXt/30 Minute Chart with Pivot:https://www.tradingview.com/x/IBYpqCqH/ZS: 30 Minute Chart:https://www.tradingview.com/x/RddXiHX7/30 Minute Chart with Pivot:https://www.tradingview.com/x/WLuK5Ou8/
Correction on grammar and description to give a clearer picture on TTD. 30 Minute Chart:https://www.tradingview.com/x/XRddaBR4/30 Minute Chart with Pivot: https://www.tradingview.com/x/uWvJg4Mx/
The day ended up as suspected with TTD, ESTC, and ZS all taking a dip. Will try to post again tomorrow morning. Tomorrow will also be my last morning outlook as I'm heading back to work next week and will not have time to annotate charts. Hope you all are learning along with me! Have a good rest of your day, everyone!
News of positive trade talks helped turn things around yesterday and enthusiasm continues today. Futures are green and outlook is cautiously optimistic, especially with such volatility. SPY:https://www.tradingview.com/x/uLoOIruu/QQQ:https://www.tradingview.com/x/r8rmawMW/TTD: https://www.tradingview.com/x/WZHAYBGU/ZS: https://www.tradingview.com/x/1i52Kv8M/ESTC: 30 min chart: https://www.tradingview.com/x/mmzHJ5Vh/1 Hr chart: https://www.tradingview.com/x/cEH8HoyP/
TTD update with upgrade from Royal Bank of Canada this morning PT 250. https://www.tradingview.com/x/hUUsdo0U/
TTD intra-day update: https://www.tradingview.com/x/zvdvn3Mi/
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